Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.55; (P) 127.92; (R1) 128.32; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the downside at this point. Correction from 131.34 short term top would extend to 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86). But strong support is expected from there to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.71; (P) 148.03; (R1) 148.44; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 148.79 temporary top could extend further, and deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But further rally is expected as long as 145.97 resistance turned support holds. Corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.46; (P) 113.75; (R1) 113.98; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 114.05 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained above 112.55 support to bring another rally. Above 114.05 will target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm larger bullish case. Next target will be 118.65 resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.28; (P) 111.45; (R1) 111.61; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 112.13 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 110.35 support hold, near term outlook remains bullish. On the upside, break of 112.13 will resume the rally from 104.69 to 114.54 resistance next. However, firm break of 110.35 should confirm near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 108.49 support and below.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.94; (P) 108.14; (R1) 108.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment and stronger recovery could be seen. But outlook is unchanged that considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term top should be formed. Upside of recovery should be limited below 109.28/31 resistance to bring fall another decline. On the downside, below 107.88 will target 106.48 support. break will confirm completion of whole rebound from 104.45 and target retest of this low. However, decisive break of 109.31 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and target 112.40 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidation from 114.69 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. IN case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.79; (P) 108.21; (R1) 108.50; More…

USD/JPY drops to as low as 107.46 so far today. Break of 107.81 indicates resumption of fall from 112.40. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support. On the upside, break of 108.80 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.60; (P) 112.13; (R1) 112.59; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 114.49 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 112.02) will target 197.71 support. As noted before, whole correction from 118.65 is possibly still in progress. Break of 108.81 will confirm and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, above 112.22 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.68; (P) 110.87; (R1) 111.21; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside with focus on 111.65/71 resistance zone. Sustained break there will resume the up trend from 102.58, and suggest larger bullish trend reversal. Further rally would be seen to 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 110.92 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.81; (P) 137.84; (R1) 138.39; More…

USD/JPY’s correction from 139.37 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 134.73 support. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.97; (P) 107.55; (R1) 107.90; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as fall from 112.40 is in progress. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support. On the upside, break of 108.80 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.07; (R1) 109.54; More…

USD/JPY recovers as consolidation from 108.27 temporary low continues. Intraday bias stays neutral first. As long as 110.18 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected. On the downside, break of 108.27 will extend recent fall through 107.31 support to next fibonacci support at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 110.18 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 111.47 resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.69; (P) 113.96; (R1) 114.36; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 114.26 resistance will resume the rebound from 112.52, towards 115.51 high. On the downside, break of 113.12 will turn bias to the downside, and resume the correction from 115.51 through 112.52 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.42; (P) 108.79; (R1) 109.23; More….

USD/JPY’s consolidation from 108.12 temporary low is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term outlook remains bearish as rise from 98.97 is finished at 118.65 and fall from there would extend. On the downside, break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 98.97 low. Nonetheless, break of 110.10 will be the first sign of near term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 112.19 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.61; (P) 103.81; (R1) 104.08; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as it recovered after touching 4 hour 55 EMA. On the upside, sustained break of the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 103.51 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.16; (P) 112.30; (R1) 112.45; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with a temporary top in place at 112.44, after hitting 100% projection of 109.76 to 111.82 from 110.37 at 112.43. As long as 111.65 minor support holds, further rise is expected. Above 112.44 will target a test on 113.17 high. Break will resume larger rally from 104.62 to 114.73 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 111.65 will dampen the immediate bullish outlook and turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.73; (P) 104.98; (R1) 105.20; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. Some consolidations could be seen above 104.77 temporary low. But upside of recovery should be limited below 106.63 support turned resistance to bring another fall. on the downside, break of 104.77 will extend larger decline to 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12 next.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.39; (P) 115.71; (R1) 115.89; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 116.34 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained well well above 114.26 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.12; (P) 105.51; (R1) 105.71; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.62 extends to as high as 106.33 so far today. But still, it’s staying well below 106.63 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral with near term outlook staying bearish. On the downside, break of 104.62 will resume larger fall fro 104.20 projection level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). Nonetheless, break of 106.63 will indicate short term bottom and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

USD/JPY’s break of 109.28 resistance last week indicates resumption of whole rise from 104.45. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 109.31 structural resistance will add to the case of medium term reversal. Next near term target is 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. On the downside, below 108.64 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 107.88 support holds.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.