Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.29; (P) 108.51; (R1) 108.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain neutral first. Retreat from 108.93 might extend lower. But downside should be contained well above 106.48 support to bring another rise. On the upside, above 108.93 will target 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.73; (P) 111.20; (R1) 111.57; More…

A temporary low is in place at 110.83 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. As long as 112.71 resistance holds, fall from 114.73 is expected to continue. Below 110.83 will target 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. For the moment, we’re still favoring the case medium term corrective pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. Hence, we’ll looking for bottoming below 110.14 to bring another rise. On the upside, break of 112.71 will suggest that the fall from 114.73 is completed and turn bias to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 107.31 support holds, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. And another rise is in favor. Break of 114.73 resistance will target a test on 118.65 high first. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.39; (P) 136.96; (R1) 137.44; More…

USD/JPY rises in early US session but stays below 137.73 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 134.73 support to bring rebound. Firm break of 137.74 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.00; (P) 107.36; (R1) 107.68; More…

A temporary low is in place at 107.04 with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But upside should be limited by 108.80 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 107.04 will pave the way to retest 104.69 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 108.80 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 110.67 resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.26; (P) 107.77; (R1) 108.43; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 106.75 support should confirm completion of rebound from 101.18, after failing 112.22 key resistance. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low. On the upside, above 109.70 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 111.71. Decisive break of 112.22 carry larger bullish implication and target 114.54 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.74; (P) 112.02; (R1) 112.27; More….

Upside momentum is seen as diminishing in 4 hour MACD after breaching 112.19 resistance. But there is no clear sign of topping in USD/JPY yet. Further rise is expected to 115.49 resistance next. Corrective fall from 118.65 should have completed with three waves down to 108.12 already. Break of 115.49 will resume larger rally from 98.97 to 125.85 high. On the downside, break of 110.86 will bring lengthier consolidation before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.71; (P) 105.97; (R1) 106.29; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and more consolidative trading could be seen. But as long as 106.73 resistance holds, outlook remains bearish for further decline. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.34).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.60; (P) 117.91; (R1) 118.52; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 118.65 long term resistance next. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63. On the downside, below 117.78 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first. But retreat should be contained by 116.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 113.46 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.90; (P) 111.04; (R1) 111.25; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. While deeper pull cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. Price actions from 113.17 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Break of 111.82 will reaffirm the case that such correction has completed at 109.76. And in that case, further rise should be seen back to retest 113.17 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.57; (P) 111.94; (R1) 112.19; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with 112.57 minor resistance intact. Fall from 113.43 short term top would target EMA (now at 111.37) first. As whole rebound from 107.31 is likely completed, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will target 107.31 low and below. In that case, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 112.57 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stays on the downside as long as 113.43 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.93; (P) 110.08; (R1) 110.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.65; (P) 109.80; (R1) 110.09; More..

USD/JPY’s rally extends to as high as 110.21 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally from 104.45 should target 100% projection of 106.48 to 109.72 from 107.65 at 110.89 next. On the downside, below 109.43 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.98; (P) 111.17; (R1) 111.39; More…

USD/JPY is staying in tight range below 111.48 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. We maintains the view that correction from 113.17 should have completed at 109.76 already. Above 111.48 will turn bias to the upside for 112.14. Break will pave the way to retest 113.17 high. Meanwhile, below 110.74 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.76 instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.99; (P) 106.61; (R1) 107.14; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Current fall is part of the corrective pattern from 111.71, and should target 105.98 support and below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 107.22 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support could extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.06; (P) 110.28; (R1) 110.58;  More…

USD/JPY’s rise from 108.10 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 111.39. Break there will resume the whole rebound from 104.62. On the downside, break of 109.18 will extend the consolidation from 111.39 with another decline towards 108.10 support.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.71; (P) 114.08; (R1) 114.55; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 118.65 extends to as low as 113.06 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 115.43 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.15; (P) 129.67; (R1) 130.69; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 129.77 minor resistance indicates that pull back from 131.34 has completed with three waves down to 126.35. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 131.34 first. Firm break there will confirm up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. On the downside, below 128.45 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.01; (P) 134.31; (R1) 135.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 135.58 is extending. Further rally is expected as long as 131.34 resistance turned support holds. Above 135.58 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29. However, firm break of 131.34 will bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 128.36).

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

USD/JPY rebounded strongly last week and initial bias stays on the upside this week. Decisive break of 131.34 resistance will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. On the downside, below 129.50 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. First target at 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 was already met. Next is 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.18; (P) 105.33; (R1) 105.58; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 104.94/106.10 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is in favor with 104.94 support intact. On the upside, break of 106.10 will target 106.94 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the whole decline from 111.71. On the downside, break of 104.94 support will revive near term bearishness and target a test on 104.00 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.