Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.68; (P) 133.26; (R1) 134.35; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside as rebound from 129.62 is in progress. Further rally could be seen back towards 137.90 resistance. For now, further rise will remain in favor as long as 132.03 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.73; (P) 113.02; (R1) 113.32; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Outlook remains cautiously bullish as long as 112.02 holds and further rise is in favor. Break of 113.74 will resume the rebound from 110.83 and target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 112.02 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 114.73 with another leg through 110.83 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.54; (P) 106.98; (R1) 107.34; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 108.04 resistance will suggest completion of correction from 111.71. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 109.38 resistance and above. On the downside, break of 106.35 will target 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. Reactions from there could reveal whether fall from 111.71 is corrective or impulsive.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.66; (P) 109.13; (R1) 109.65; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment as fall from 114.49 is resuming. Such decline would target a test on 108.12 low. Whole corrective decline from 118.65 is possibly resuming and break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, above 109.66 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 110.94 is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.71; (P) 114.08; (R1) 114.55; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 115.43 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.71; (P) 113.99; (R1) 114.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Risk will stay on the downside for another fall as long as 116.34 resistance holds. Break of 113.47 will target 112.52 structural support. Considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, break of 112.52 will confirm that it’s already in correction to the up trend from 102.58. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. However, firm break of 112.52 support will dampen this bullish case and we’ll assess the outlook based on subsequent price actions later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.40; (P) 113.61; (R1) 113.86; More..

USD/JPY’s break of 113.18 minor support suggests resumption of fall from 114.03. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 112.30 support first. Break there will target 111.37 and below. On the upside, break of 114.03 resistance will resume the rise from 111.37 to 114.73 resistance. Overall, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of deep decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.76; (P) 149.13; (R1) 149.73; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed today by breaking through 149.70 resistance and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 127.20 should target a retest on 151.93 high next. On the downside, break of 148.51 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.09; (P) 111.36; (R1) 111.79; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Intraday bias remains on the upside with focus on 111.65/71 resistance zone. Sustained break there will resume the up trend from 102.58, and suggest larger bullish trend reversal. Further rally would be seen to 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 110.92 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.70; (P) 138.54; (R1) 139.81; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29. On the downside, below 137.74 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

USD/JPY retreated after recovering to 137.84 but there was no clear downside momentum. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 137.84 resistance will revive the case of short term bottoming at 133.61, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 141.02). However, break of 133.61 will resume the decline form 151.93 through 133.07 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.52) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

In the long term picture, rise from 102.58, as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) was put to a halt at 151.93, just ahead of 100% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 102.58 at 152.87. There is no clear sign of long term reversal yet. Such up trend is expected to resume at a later stage, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.56; (P) 112.87; (R1) 113.15; More…

USD/JPY continues stay in tight range below 113.25, around medium term channel resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.82; (P) 111.16; (R1) 111.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 112.07 is is progress. Downside of retreat should be contained by 110.44 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 112.07 will extend larger rise to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 next. However, break of 110.44 will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.11 support.

In the bigger picture, break of 111.71 resistance suggests that the whole corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed at 101.18 (2020 low) already. Medium term bullishness is also affirmed as USD/JPY stays well above 55 week EMA (now at 108.60). Sustained trading above 111.71 will affirm this bullish case. Rise from 101.18 could then be resuming whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) through 118.65. This will now be the preferred case as long as 108.71 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.58; (P) 128.28; (R1) 129.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with breach of 127.76 minor support. Deeper pull back could be seen. But downside should be contained by 125.09 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 129.39 will resume larger up trend to 130.04 long term projection level next.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.33; (P) 149.54; (R1) 149.74; More…

Despite some volatility, USD/JPY is still staying in range below 150.15. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 148.24 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg through 147.28. On the upside, firm break of 150.15 will resume larger up trend to test 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.00; (P) 107.51; (R1) 107.81; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook, corrective recovery from 106.78 should have completed at 108.99, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Further fall would be seen to 106.78 first. Decisive break there will resume whole decline from 112.40 and target 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 108.37 will extend the correction from 106.78 with another rise, possibly through 108.99 resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.71; (P) 105.07; (R1) 105.35; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for retesting 104.18 support. Break there will resume larger fall from 111.71 and target 61.8% projection of 109.85 to 104.18 from 106.94 at 103.43 next. On the upside, though, above 105.54 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.20; (P) 109.53; (R1) 109.87; More…

With the current strong rebound, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral, with focus back on 110.26 resistance. Break there will resume the rebound from 108.10 for a test on 111.39 high. On the downside, below 109.18 will bring another fall to 108.10 or below. Overall, price actions from 111.39 are viewed as a corrective pattern which might extend. But in case of deeper fall, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

USD/JPY’s up trend accelerated further to as high as 119.39 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63 next. On the downside, below 118.35 will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 116.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 118.65 resistance (2016 high) suggest that up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming, with rise from 101.18 (2020 low) as the third leg. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 113.46 low. Sustained trading above 118.65 will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. However, firm break of 128.85 will resume the up trend form 75.56 towards 135.20 long term resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.40; (P) 139.86; (R1) 140.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again as it recovery after failing to break through 137.22 support. On the downside, break of 137.22 will resume the whole decline from 145.06, and carries larger bearish implications. On the upside, though, break of 141.93 will resume the rebound from 137.22 and target a test on 145.06 high.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that the second leg (the rise from 127.20) might not be over yet. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.