USD/JPY rebounded strongly after edging lower to 108.81. The break of 110.80 resistance argues that fall from 114.36 has completed already. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for near term channel resistance (now at 113.06). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. Nonetheless, break of 108.81 will still extend the fall from 118.65 through 108.12 low before completion.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY’s fall from 151.93 resumed last week and hit as low as 133.61. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 133.07 medium term fibonacci level or further to 55 week EMA. On the upside, break of 137.66 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 142.24 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

In the long term picture, rise from 102.58, as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) was put to a halt at 151.93, just ahead of 100% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 102.58 at 152.87. There is no clear sign of long term reversal yet. Such up trend is expected to resume at a later stage, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.36; (P) 113.65; (R1) 114.00; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.40; (P) 110.60; (R1) 110.93; More…

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 111.05 so far today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current development affirms that consolidation pattern from 11.65 has completed already. Further rise should be seen to retest this high, as well as 111.71 key resistance. On the downside, however, below 110.30 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.14; (P) 111.42; (R1) 111.95; More…

USD’s break of 112.82 resistance suggests that rise from 107.71 has resumed. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 112.13. Decisive break there will resume larger rise from 104.69. Next target will be 114.54 key resistance. On the downside, break of 110.84 is needed to indicate completion of rise from 109.71. Otherwise, further rise remains in favor even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

USD/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 158.43. Initial bias stay on the upside this week. Next target is 138.2% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 161.14. On the downside, below 156.81 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, as long as 140.25 support holds, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 172.08.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.36; (P) 112.61; (R1) 112.81; More..

Intraday bias remains on the downside for 113.37 support and possibly below. Decline from 114.20 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 114.54. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 113.30 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 114.54/73 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.41; (P) 134.99; (R1) 135.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside for the moment. Rise from 130.38 should target a test on 139.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, to bring another fall, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 139.37. On the downside, below 132.50 minor support will resume the fall from 139.37 towards 126.35 structural support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.78; (P) 109.33; (R1) 109.74; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Correction from 110.02 short term top could extend to near term channel support (now at 108.61) and possibly below. But we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 110.02 at 107.95 to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 110.02 will resume the rise from 104.62 to t 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.97).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.93; (P) 109.39; (R1) 109.78; More…

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 109.02 but quickly recovered. Still, with 110.04 resistance intact, further decline is expected. As noted before, whole rebound from 104.69 has completed at 112.40 already. Current fall from 112.40 should extend to retest 104.69 low. Nevertheless, break of 110.04 minor resistance will indicate short term bottom. Lengthier consolidation could be seen before another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.07; (P) 136.63; (R1) 137.72; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Current rally from 127.20 would target next fibonacci level at 142.48. On the downside, break of 135.35 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 suggests that whole down trend from 151.93 has completed at 127.20 already. Tentatively, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg the medium term pattern from 151.93. Further rally is expected to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 134.10) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.12; (P) 111.28; (R1) 111.40; More…

USD/JPY fails to take out 111.78 temporary top and stays in range. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is favor with 110.63 minor support intact. Above 111.78 will target channel resistance (now at 112.82). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 110.63 will turn bias back to the downside for 108.81 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.19; (P) 105.47; (R1) 105.69; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 106.21 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rise is expected as long as 140.40 support holds. Rise from 102.58 is seen as at least correcting the down trend from 111.71 to 102.58, with prospect of being an up trend of its own. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 108.22.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.84) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.15).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.56; (P) 110.90; (R1) 111.43; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 110.37/111.82 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 111.73 minor resistance will resume the rebound from 109.76 to retest 113.17 high. Break there will resume larger rise from 104.62. On the downside, below 110.37 will bring deeper fall. But still, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.60; (P) 105.91; (R1) 106.37; More…

USD/JPY continues to be bounded in consolidation above 105.24 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.67 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish and further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. Firm break there will pave the way to 98.97 key support level and below. However, break of 107.67 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 108.93) first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.60; (P) 141.17; (R1) 141.47; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is mildly in favor with 139.74 minor support intact. On the upside, above 141.93 will resume the rebound from 137.22 to 145.06 first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 127.22 from 145.06 at 146.76 next. On the downside, below 139.74 minor support will bring retest of 137.22 instead.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that the second leg (the rise from 127.20) might not be over yet. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.91; (P) 151.44; (R1) 151.85; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.01). Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.75; (P) 107.02; (R1) 107.29; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. We’re favoring the case that corrective fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 105.98. Further rise is expected as long as 105.98 support holds. On the upside, break of 107.76 will turn bias back to the upside for 109.38 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.93; (P) 110.20; (R1) 110.65; More…

At this point, further rise could still be seen in USD/JPY. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 109.66 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 108.49. Break will confirm completion of rebound from 104.69. However, sustained trading above 110.77 will dampen our bearish view and target a test on 114.54 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.41) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.38; (P) 108.67; (R1) 108.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. As long as 107.93 minor support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 108.99 will resume the rebound from 106.78 for 100% projection of 106.78 to 108.99 from 107.21 at 109.42 and then 161.8% projection at 110.78. On the downside, below 107.93 minor support will turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.