Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.74; (P) 111.21; (R1) 111.67; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. More consolidative trading could be seen first. Near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 106.75 support holds. Decisive break of 112.22 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, break of 106.75 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.30; (P) 118.67; (R1) 118.96; More…

A temporary top should be in place at 119.11 with 4 hour MACD staying below signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 116.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 119.11 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Sustained break of 118.65 (2016 high) will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 113.46 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

USD/JPY fell sharply to as low as 146.47 last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from 140.25. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 144.30 and below. Nevertheless, strong support from 146.81, followed by break of 148.29 minor resistance resistance, will argue that fall from 150.87 is merely a correction, which has completed already.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price action from 151.89 (2023 high) are correction to up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). The question is whether this correction has completed at 140.25, or extending with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. Sustained break of above mentioned 146.81 fibonacci level will favor the latter case. But even so, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 139.54

In the long term picture, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds (2015 high), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to continue through 151.93 (2022 high) at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.90; (P) 114.67; (R1) 115.22; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain son the downside for the moment. Correction from 118.65 short term top is expected to extend lower to 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 116.86 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.79; (P) 109.16; (R1) 109.42; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 109.53 temporary top. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 107.77 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 109.53 will resume the rise from 104.62 and target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.60).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.58; (P) 111.90; (R1) 112.26; More…

A temporary low is in place at 111.54 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidation could be seen but another fall is expected as long as 112.85 resistance holds. Below 111.54 will target 108.81 low. Break there will extend the whole correction from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.85 will turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.61; (P) 141.83; (R1) 142.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations should be seen. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48 will pave the way back to retest 151.93 high. However, rejection by 142.48, followed by break of 139.27 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 151.93 are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58. The first leg has completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg, and should be limited below 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 137.47) will argue that the third leg has started back to 127.20 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.24; (P) 146.31; (R1) 146.94; More…

USD/JPY retreated after spiking higher to 147.36 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rally remains in favor as long as 144.52 support holds. Above 147.36 will resume the rise from 127.20 to retest 151.93 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 144.52 should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 142.86).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.11; (P) 104.51; (R1) 107.01; More..

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as we’d still expect strong resistance around 38.2% retracement of 112.22 to 101.18 at 105.39 to complete the corrective recovery from 101.18. Break of 103.22 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 101.18. Nevertheless, firm break of 105.39 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 108.00.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound.

USD/JPY’s break of 160.20 resistance last week confirmed long term up trend resumption. But as a temporary top was formed at 161.27, initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside should be contained by 158.71 support to bring another rally. Break of 161.27 will target 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94.

In the long term picture, as long as 140.25 support holds, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 172.08.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.05; (P) 107.31; (R1) 107.62; More..

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 108.24 minor resistance holds. On the downside, break of 106.57 will target 105.98 support and below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 108.24 will turn bias back to the upside for 109.85 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support could extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.43; (P) 109.65; (R1) 110.09; More…

USD/JPY’s rise from 104.62 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally would target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next. On the downside, below 109.50 minor support will indicate temporary topping. And, intraday bias would be turned neutral for consolidation, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.78).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.66; (P) 112.98; (R1) 113.56; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 113.37 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 115.49 resistance. We’re holding on to the view that corrective fall from 118.65 could be completed with three waves down to 108.12. Break of 115.49 will resume larger rally from 98.97 to 125.85 high. On the downside, break of 112.08 support is needed to indicate near term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.09; (P) 146.53; (R1) 147.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, break of 145.789 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again. But overall, outlook will remain bullish as long as 140.33 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high), and possibly to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.21; (P) 106.46; (R1) 106.84; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 105.54 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 108.72 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 105.54 will extend the larger fall from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.20; (P) 139.48; (R1) 139.90; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. Further rally is expected as long as 138.22 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 136.77).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.10; (P) 113.31; (R1) 113.48; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rebound from 122.23 is in progress for 114.03 resistance. Break of 114.03 will resume rebound from 111.37 and target 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, below 113.14 minor support will turn bias the downside for 112.23 and below. Overall, price actions 114.54 are seen as a consolidative pattern. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.29; (P) 109.03; (R1) 109.50; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 108.27/110.47 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, larger decline from 114.73 is possibly still in progress. Break of 108.27 will also resume the medium term correction from 118.65. That will send USD/JPY through 107.31 to 106.48 fibonacci level. Nonetheless, above 110.47 will turn intraday bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.89; (P) 111.98; (R1) 112.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 112.13 key resistance. On the upside, sustained break of 112.13 will resume whole rise from 104.69 for 100 % projection of 109.71 to 111.82 and 110.84 at 112.95 first. On the downside, below 111.69 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will bring deeper fall back to 109.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

USD/JPY rose to as high as 109.53 last week but formed a temporary top there on loss of momentum. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 107.77 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 109.53 will resume the rise from 104.62 and target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.60).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.