Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.52; (P) 105.84; (R1) 106.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidative trading could be seen. Outlook stays bearish as long as 106.73 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.43).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.54; (P) 106.00; (R1) 106.43; More...

With 105.20 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 106.07 support turned resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 104.18. More importantly, whole corrective decline from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18, just missed 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. In the case, further rise should be seen to 108.16 resistance next. However, break of 105.20 minor support will turn focus back to 104.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.52; (P) 104.90; (R1) 105.13; More...

USD/JPY’s strong rebound and break of 105.29 resistance suggests short term bottoming at 104.18. That came just ahead of 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. Intraday bias is turn back to the upside for stronger recovery. Focus is back on 106.07 support turned resistance. As long as 106.07 holds, larger decline from 111.71 is still in favor to extend lower. However, sustained break of 106.07 will indicate near term bullish reversal and target 108.18 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.82; (P) 109.11; (R1) 109.53; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.69 is still in progress and turns out to be stronger than originally expected. Intraday bias stays on the upside and break of 109.46 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 and above. On the downside, below 107.77 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.84; (P) 156.61; (R1) 157.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Choppy rise from 151.86 would continue to retest 160.20 high but strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. On the downside, below 156.57 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 160.20. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 147.77) holds, fall from 160.20 is seen as correcting the rise from 140.25 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.54; (P) 113.65; (R1) 113.87; More…

USD/JPY continues to trade in established range and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.15; (P) 134.83; (R1) 135.74; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Overall, corrective pattern from 139.37 will extend further. On the upside, above 135.57 will resume the rebound to retest 139.37 high. But a decisive break there is not expected this time. On the downside, below 131.72 will resume the fall from 139.37 through 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 122.70) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.51; (P) 150.79; (R1) 151.25; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as consolidation from 151.69 is extending. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 148.79 support holds. Firm break of 151.69 high will resume larger up trend. However, decisive break of 148.79 will indicate rejection by 151.93 key resistance, and bring deeper fall through 147.28 support.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.65; (P) 140.57; (R1) 141.21; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. With 139.27 support intact, further rally is expected. Current rise from 127.20 should now target 142.48 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, break of 139.27 will now indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, decisive break of 137.90 resistance turned support will now be the first indicate that this rebound from 127.20 has completed already.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.13; (P) 141.67; (R1) 142.54; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 142.84 minor resistance indicates short term bottoming at 140.25, on bullish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 144.69. On the downside, below 141.85 minor support will bring retest of 140.25 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 144.94 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.13; (P) 109.52; (R1) 109.80; More…

USD/JPY drops to as low as 108.41 so far today and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 108.82 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 108.80) will dampen our bullish view. And USD/JPY is probably not reversing the larger decline from 118.65 yet. In that case, deeper fall will be seen to 61.8% retracement at 107.20 and possibly below. Nonetheless, strong rebound from the current level, followed by break of 109.82 will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 111.39 first.

In the bigger picture, for now, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above. However, sustained break of 108.82 will dampen the bullish outlook and revive the case of a break of 104.62 low before medium term bottoming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.30; (P) 113.57; (R1) 114.00; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 112.52 will resume the fall from 115.51, as a correction to up trend from 102.57, and target 100% projection of 115.51 to 112.52 from 114.26 at 111.27. On the upside, above 114.26 will target a test on 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.63; (P) 113.89; (R1) 114.12; More…

USD/JPY recovers today but stays in range above 113.47. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 113.47 will resume the fall from 116.34. As a corrective to whole up trend from 102.58, break of 112.52 will target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08. However, break of 115.05 resistance will bring stronger rebound back to retest 116.34 high.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 110.91) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.89; (P) 106.09; (R1) 106.29; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 105.52 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited below 109.31 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 105.52 will target 104.69 low next.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.89; (P) 150.43; (R1) 151.02; More…

While USD/JPY’s fall from 151.69 is extending, it’s still holding above 148.79 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Price actions from 151.69 could still be seen as a consolidation pattern only. However, firm break of 148.79 will indicate rejection by 151.93 key resistance, and bring deeper fall through 147.28 support.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

USD/JPY edged lower to 109.02 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Current development argues that rebound from 104.69 has completed at 112.40 already. Thus, upside of current recovery should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 110.88) to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 109.02 will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.10; (P) 107.43; (R1) 107.67; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with today’s retreat. Further rise could be seen as long as 106.64 minor support intact. But 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12, remains crucial in determining the medium outlook. Break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.27; (P) 111.56; (R1) 111.98; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point as it’s staying in range of 110.35/112.13. As long as 110.35 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish and rise from 104.69 is expected to resume. On the upside, break of 112.13 will target 114.54 resistance next. However, firm break of 110.35 should confirm near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 108.49 support and below.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.51; (P) 148.05; (R1) 148.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current recovery. Some consolidations would be seen above 147.14 temporary low first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.73) holds. Below 147.14 will target medium term channel support at 146.00 next. Nevertheless, sustained break of 55 4H EMA will revive near term bullishness, and target a retest on 151.89/93 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 111.58 was limited at 114.94 last week and reversed. The development suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 is not finished. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 111.58 and below. Though, we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 114.94 resistance should confirm completion of pull back from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

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