Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.98; (P) 108.36; (R1) 109.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current development suggests that medium term trend is possibly reversing. Further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 110.86 next. On the downside, below 107.77 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.47).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.36; (P) 107.61; (R1) 107.86; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues to as high as 108.56 so far with upside acceleration seen in 4 hour MACD. Current developments suggests that medium term trend is possibly reversing. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 110.86 next. On the downside, below 107.77 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.41).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2239; (P) 1.2296 (R1) 1.2342; More….

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook as focus remains on 1.2214 support. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 1.2154 first. Firm break there will confirm and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 next. On the upside, break of 1.2413 will turn focus back to 1.2555 high instead.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.36; (P) 107.61; (R1) 107.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside and rebound from 104.62 is extending to 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12. This resistance zone will be crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.62 extended last week with very weak upside momentum. Further rise could be seen this week to 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12. This resistance zone will be crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.17; (P) 107.34; (R1) 107.53; More…

At this point, USD/JPY is still held below 107.77 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Break of 107.77 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 which is close to 108.12. This level is crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.17; (P) 107.34; (R1) 107.53; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Break of 107.77 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 which is close to 108.12. This level is crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.00; (P) 107.19; (R1) 107.41; More…

At this point, the consolidation pattern from 107.77 is still unfolding and intraday bias stays neutral in USD/JPY. With 106.64 minor support intact, rebound from 104.62 is in favor to continue. Break of 107.77 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 which is close to 108.12. This level is crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.00; (P) 107.19; (R1) 107.41; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as it’s still bounded in range of 106.64/107.77. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidative could be seen. Further rise would be mildly in favor as long as 106.64 minor support holds. Break of 107.77 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 which is close to 108.12. This level is crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.85; (P) 107.03; (R1) 107.18; More…

At this point, USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 106.64/107.77. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidative could be seen. Further rise would be mildly in favor as long as 106.64 minor support holds. Break of 107.77 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 which is close to 108.12. This level is crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.85; (P) 107.03; (R1) 107.18; More…

USD/JPY is drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA again and recovered. But it’s staying in range of 106.64/107.77. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rise is mildly in favor and break of 107.77 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 which is close to 108.12. This level is crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.89; (P) 107.24; (R1) 107.46; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 106.64/107.77 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rise is mildly in favor and break of 107.77 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 which is close to 108.12. This level is crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.89; (P) 107.24; (R1) 107.46; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged. With 106.64 minor support intact, rebound from 104.62 could extend higher. But 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12, remains crucial in determining the medium outlook. Break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.10; (P) 107.43; (R1) 107.67; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise could be seen as long as 106.64 minor support intact. But 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12, remains crucial in determining the medium outlook. Break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.10; (P) 107.43; (R1) 107.67; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with today’s retreat. Further rise could be seen as long as 106.64 minor support intact. But 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12, remains crucial in determining the medium outlook. Break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.62 extended to 107.77 last week. Initial bias remain son the upside for 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12. This resistance zone will be crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.88; (P) 107.15; (R1) 107.61; More…

USD/JPY’s rally extends to as high as 107.77 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12. This resistance zone will be crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.88; (P) 107.15; (R1) 107.61; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 106.42 finally resumed by taking out 107.48 and reaches as high as 107.66 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12. This resistance zone will be crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.53; (P) 106.89; (R1) 107.13; More…

While intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral, focus is back to 107.48 temporary top with today’s rebound. Break will resume whole rise from 104.62 and target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12. This resistance zone will be crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, below 106.61 minor support will bring deeper fall to 105.65. Break of 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound from 104.62 is completed and target a test on 104.62 low. This will also retain medium term bearishness for down trend resumption later.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.53; (P) 106.89; (R1) 107.13; More…

USD/JPY is still staying in range below 107.48 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 106.61 minor support will bring deeper fall to 105.65. Break of 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound from 104.62 is completed and target a test on 104.62 low. This will also retain medium term bearishness for down trend resumption later. On the upside, above 107.48 will extend the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12 and is crucial to determine the medium term outlook.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.