Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.41; (P) 129.51; (R1) 130.67; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in established rate above 127.20 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 134.64).

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.27; (P) 142.87; (R1) 143.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation continues below 145.89. Further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.69; (P) 105.96; (R1) 106.13; More..

A temporary top is formed at 106.21 with current retreat and intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first. Further rise is expected as long as 140.40 support holds. Rise from 102.58 is seen as at least correcting the down trend from 111.71 to 102.58, with prospect of being an up trend of its own. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 108.22.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.23).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.87; (P) 108.12; (R1) 108.40; More…

USD/JPY continues to lose downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But there is no clear sign of bottoming. Further fall should be seen and sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. Though, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.14; (P) 113.44; (R1) 113.92; More…

USD/JPY recovers after dipping to 112.95 but it’s staying below 114.49 key resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral at this moment. Near term outlook will stays cautiously bullish as long as 111.64 support holds. Decisive break of 114.49 key resistance will confirm that correction pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. And USD/JPY should then target a test on 118.65. However, sustained break of 111.64 will argue that rebound from 107.31 has completed and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.40; (P) 113.00; (R1) 113.45; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 112.71 support. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.61; (P) 107.73; (R1) 107.97; More…

With 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise will remain in favor as long as 107.19 minor support holds. Above 108.16 will target 109.31 key resistance. We’d continue to look for topping sign as it approaches this 109.31 resistance. On the downside, break of 107.19 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. However, decisive break of 109.31 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.80; (P) 106.09; (R1) 106.32; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first as it’s still bounded in sideway trading. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case that pull back fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest 104.18 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.31; (P) 142.08; (R1) 142.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral despite today’s decline. Sideway trading could still continue in range above 140.94. But in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 144.94 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 140.94 will resume the whole fall from 151.89. Next target will be next fibonacci level at 136.63.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 146.58 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.75; (P) 106.38; (R1) 107.62; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is mildly in favor with 104.50 minor support intact. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 112.22 to 101.18 at 108.00 will target 112.22 resistance next. On the downside, break of 104.50 will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound. However, break of 112.22 will be a strong sign on medium term bullish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.12; (P) 115.50; (R1) 116.76; More…

USD/JPY’s fall and break of 114.76 support indicates short term topping at 118.65. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 113.10) and below. At this point, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 118.65 will target at test on 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.21; (P) 115.48; (R1) 115.82; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.50; (P) 109.77; (R1) 110.07; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside with 109.36 minor support intact and further rise is expected. Rebound from 108.10 should target a test on 111.39 resistance next. Break will resume the rebound from 104.62 and target a test on 114.73 key resistance level. However, on the downside, below 109.36 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, at this point , we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.24; (P) 136.03; (R1) 136.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and further rise is still in favor with 134.25 minor support intact. On the upside, sustained trading above of 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 will extend larger up trend to 100% projection at 143.29. However, break of 134.25 will turn bias back to the downside for 131.48 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

USD/JPY stayed in range of 105.10/107.05 last week despite very high volatility. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further decline is in favor as long as 107.05 resistance holds. Break of 105.10 will bring retest of 104.18 support first. Further break will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.66; (P) 105.90; (R1) 106.21; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 107.05 resistance intact, further decline remains in favor. Break of 105.10 will bring retest of 104.18 support first. Further break will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.63; (P) 107.97; (R1) 108.69; More…

USD/JPY’s sharp decline suggests that rebound from 106.78 has completed at 109.31 already. The three wave corrective structure of the rebound argues that fall from 112.40 is still in progress. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Decisive break of 106.78 will target 104.69 low next. On the upside, above 107.56 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 109.31 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.52; (P) 107.53; (R1) 108.11; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. As noted before, whole rise form 104.45 has completed after rejection by 112.40 resistance. Fall from 112.22 should target a test on 104.45 low. On the upside, above 108.57 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, current steep decline and rejection by 112.40 resistance mixes up the medium term outlook again. Sustained break of 108.30 support will argue that larger fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) hasn’t completed. Further fall could be seen through 104.45 low. Nevertheless, break of 112.40 resistance will revive the case of bullish reversal and target 114.54 key resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.98; (P) 145.47; (R1) 146.34; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as it’s still bounded in range. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76 will pave the way to retest 151.93 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 144.52 support will be a sign of reversal, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 142.45).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.07; (P) 109.41; (R1) 109.73; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 108.27 is in progress. As long as 110.18 resistance holds, near term outlook stays bearish and deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 108.27 will extend recent fall through 107.31 support to next fibonacci support at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 110.18 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 111.47 resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).