Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.30; (P) 105.55; (R1) 105.70; More...

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook despite loss of upside momentum. Further rise is still in favor with 104.92 minor support intact. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 105.94) will raise the chance of bullish reversal and target 106.94 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, below 104.92 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.53; (P) 111.57; (R1) 112.33; More..

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 110.81 so far before recovery mildly. Outlooks is unchanged that price actions from 114.54 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. We’d continue to expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 111.84 will turn bias back to the upside for rebound to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 112.56). However, firm break of 110.75 will target 61.8% retracement at 108.40.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.69; (P) 110.90; (R1) 111.16; More…

USD/JPY is losing some upside momentum again but further rise is mildly in favor for 111.71 resistance. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64 next. For now, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 109.70 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. On the upside, decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 107.47 support would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.78; (P) 153.08; (R1) 153.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside as USD/JPY’s up trend resumed through 153.37 temporary top. Further rally should be seen to 155.20 fibonacci projection level next. On the downside, below 152.58 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.60; (P) 110.76; (R1) 110.88; More….

USD/JPY’s recovery was limited by 4 hour 55 EMA and retreated. But it’s staying above 109.83 temporary low and intraday bias stays neutral first. The consolidation from 109.83 might extend and another rise cannot be ruled out. But after all, near term outlook stays bearish as long as 112.18 resistance holds and deeper fall is expected. Break of 109.83 will target 108.81 support first. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.18 resistance will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.54; (P) 115.94; (R1) 116.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside with focus on 116.34 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 102.58. Next target is 118.65 long term resistance. On the downside, though, break of 115.31 minor support will extend the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another falling leg, and turn bias back to the downside for 114.14 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.21) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.56; (P) 134.22; (R1) 134.94; More…

Intraday bias stays on the downside at this point. Fall from 137.73 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 137.90. Break of 133.00 will bring deeper fall towards 129.62 support. But still, as long as 129.62 holds, larger rebound from 127.20 is still in favor to resume at a later stage. On the upside, above 135.68 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 137.76.90 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 31.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.71; (P) 105.07; (R1) 105.35; More...

USD/JPY drops to as low as 104.52 so far and intraday bias on the downside for retesting 104.18 first. Break there will resume larger fall from 111.71 and target 61.8% projection of 109.85 to 104.18 from 106.94 at 103.43 next. On the upside, above 105.17 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.69; (P) 114.93; (R1) 115.37; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current up trend from 102.58 should target 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. On the downside, break of 113.57 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 111.65 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.30; (P) 113.49; (R1) 113.74; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation in tight range below 113.68 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. As long as 111.98 support holds, further rally is expected in the pair. On the upside, above 113.68 will extend the rise from 110.83 to 114.73 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 107.31. More importantly, that will confirm completion of medium term correction from 118.65 at 107.31. In that case, retest of 118.65 should be seen next. However, break of 111.98 support will extend the correction from 114.73 with another fall, possibly to 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14 before completion.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed a 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.15; (P) 136.80; (R1) 137.28; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 139.37 extends lower today and focus is now on 134.73 support. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 134.73 will argue that it’s already in correction to medium term up trend. Deeper decline would then be seen through 55 day EMA to 126.35/131.34 support zone. On the upside, above 137.44 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 139.37 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.44; (P) 109.56; (R1) 109.79; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and consolidation from 109.72 might extend. Still, as long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.68; (P) 103.88; (R1) 104.12; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation in range of 103.51/104.39 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 104.39 and sustained trading above the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 103.51 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.46; (P) 105.75; (R1) 105.92; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. As long as 104.94 resistance holds, further rise is still mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 106.10 will 106.94 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the whole decline from 111.71. On the downside, break of 104.94 support will revive near term bearishness and target a test on 104.00 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.42; (P) 110.00; (R1) 110.34; More….

USD/JPY’s rise from 108.12 resumes after brief retreat as reaches as high as 110.62 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 111.58 support turned resistance. Considering bullish convergence in 4 hour MACD, sustained break of 111.58 will argue that fall from 118.65 is merely a corrective move and has completed. Outlook will then be turned bullish for 115.49 resistance and above. Meanwhile, below 109.58 minor support will turn bias to the downside and extend the whole decline from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.53; (P) 144.10; (R1) 144.63; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the downside with break of 143.54 temporary low. Deeper decline would be seen as corrective fall from 145.06 extends. But still, overall outlook remains bullish with 140.90 resistance turned support intact. Break of 145.06 will resume larger rise to 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 138.75 support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 138.75 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.25; (P) 109.57; (R1) 110.09; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.69 is still in progress and further rise would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. We’d look for topping signal above there. On the downside, break of 107.77 minor support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise remains in favor even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.79; (P) 141.52; (R1) 141.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. With 142.45 minor resistance intact, further decline is in favor. Break of 139.63 minor support will bring retest of 137.66 low first. Break there will resume the decline from 151.93, to 133.07 fibonacci level, as a correction to the larger up trend. Nevertheless, firm break of 142.45 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 143.32) and above.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.28).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.10; (P) 106.35; (R1) 106.78; More…

At this point, USD/JPY is still staying in sideway trading in range of 105.24/107.67. Intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.67 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.93; (P) 110.08; (R1) 110.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. It’s still bounded in sideway trading between 109.10/110.79. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.