USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.45 extended higher last week and break of 106.73 resistance suggests short term bottoming. Further rise is expected this week as long as 105.73 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 107.17) will pave the way to 109.31 key resistance. On the downside, break of 105.73 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.45 low instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 109.31 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and hit as high as 134.55. A temporary top was formed there. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained above 131.34 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, firm break of 134.55 will target 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

USD/JPY edged lower to 109.02 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Current development argues that rebound from 104.69 has completed at 112.40 already. Thus, upside of current recovery should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 110.88) to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 109.02 will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.22; (P) 106.53; (R1) 107.08; More…

USD/JPY rises to as high as 107.14 so far today. break of 107.00 indicates resumption of rebound from 104.62. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Hence, we’ll look at the reaction from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 too) to assess the chance. On the downside, below 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.54; (P) 106.00; (R1) 106.43; More...

With 105.20 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 106.07 support turned resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 104.18. More importantly, whole corrective decline from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18, just missed 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. In the case, further rise should be seen to 108.16 resistance next. However, break of 105.20 minor support will turn focus back to 104.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.50; (P) 110.94; (R1) 111.43; More..

Despite today’s decline, USD/JPY is staying above 110.13 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 110.13 will extend the whole decline from 114.54 and target 109.76 key support level. Break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, break of 111.46, with 109.76 key support defended, will revive near term bullishness. In this case, intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 112.67) first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Break of 109.76 support will start another medium term down leg to 98.97/104.62 support zone. On the upside, break of 114.73 resistance will likely extend the rise from 98.97 through 118.65 resistance.

USD/JPY’s retreated deeply to 138.05 last week but recovered to extend range trading. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 141.93 will resume the rebound from 137.22. More importantly, that would sign that whole rise from 127.20 is still in progress. Further rally should then be seen to 145.06 resistance and above. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 137.22 will resume the whole decline from 145.06, and carries larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.41; (P) 110.61; (R1) 110.83; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 109.79) will suggest that it’s at least correcting the whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18. On the upside, above 110.38 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will be mildly on the downside as long as 111.65 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest long term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall back towards 102.58 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.46; (P) 145.93; (R1) 146.36; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s still bounded in sideway trading. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76 will pave the way to retest 151.93 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 44.92 support will be a sign of reversal, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 142.09).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.07; (P) 105.37; (R1) 105.74; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as it loses momentum ahead of 106.10 resistance. But further rise is still in favor with 104.73 minor support intact. Firm break of 106.10 resistance should confirm completion of fall from 111.71, and turn outlook bullish for further rally. On the downside, break of 104.57 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 103.17 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance will suggest that the decline from 111.71 has completed. Focus will then be back to this resistance to signal medium term reversal.

USD/JPY edged lower to 127.20 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. There is no clear sign of bottoming yet, and another fall remains mildly in favor. Break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 131.56 should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.52) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

In the long term picture, 151.93 looks increasingly likely a major top. But it’s too early to call for long term bearish reversal at this point. Rebound from around 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 will keep the case open for price action from 151.93 to be just a corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.58; (P) 105.97; (R1) 106.34; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 105.24/107.67 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.67 resistance holds, near term outlook remains bearish and deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

USD/JPY gyrated higher last week but stayed in range below 150.15 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 148.94 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg towards 147.28. On the upside, firm break of 150.15 will resume larger up trend to test 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Another falling leg could be seen, but in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75. On resumption, next target would be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

USD/JPY dropped further to as low as 109.47 last week but then formed a temporary low there and turned sideway. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations first. On the downside, break of 109.47 and sustained trading below 109.72 key support will confirm completion of rebound from 104.69 at 112.40 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper decline should then be seen back to retest 104.69 low. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 110.95 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Sustained break of 109.71 will argue that rebound from 104.69 is completed. And the down trend from 118.65 is still in progress. But at this stage, in case of break of 104.69, we’d expect strong support above 98.9 (2016 low) to contain downside an bring rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.56; (P) 134.22; (R1) 134.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current recovery. Fall from 137.76 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 137.90. Below 133.48 will target 133.00 first, break will target 129.62 support. But still, as long as 129.62 holds, larger rebound from 127.20 is still in favor to resume at a later stage. On the upside, above 135.68 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 137.76/90 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 31.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.36; (P) 106.55; (R1) 106.89; More...

Focus remains on 107.49 resistance in USD/JPY. Firm break there will suggest that corrective fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 105.98. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 109.38 resistance. Break there will bring retest of 111.71. On the downside, break of 105.98 will resume the fall from 111.71 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.94; (P) 145.26; (R1) 145.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 127.20 is in progress for 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76. On the downside, below 144.62 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.93; (P) 105.02; (R1) 105.12; More..

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 105.37 so far. Current rise from 102.58 short term bottom is at least correcting the down trend from 111.71. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. On the downside, break of 104.96 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first, and bring consolidation before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.97) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.31).

USD/JPY’s extended rebound last week argues that fall from 137.90 has completed at 129.62. Rise from there is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 127.20. Initial bias is mildly on the upside and sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 133.43) will target 137.90 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 129.62 will bring retest of 127.20 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.74; (P) 106.02; (R1) 106.37; More…

Consolidation from 105.24 is still extending between 105.24 and 107.67. Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral. Near term outlook stays mildly bearish with 107.67 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.