Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.96; (P) 133.42; (R1) 133.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 139.37 is still unfolding. Range trading between 126.35/139.37 will continue for a while. On the downside, break of 130.38 will target 100% projection of 139.37 to 130.38 from 135.57 at 126.58. On the upside, above 135.57 will resume the rebound form 130.38 to retest 139.37.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 122.70) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.13; (P) 113.57; (R1) 113.85; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 114.69 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 113.24 will bring deeper pull back, but downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.07; (P) 149.38; (R1) 149.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Retreat from 149.70 could extend lower. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 145.88 support holds. Above 149.70 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.20; (P) 147.55; (R1) 148.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 148.79 is extending. With 145.97 resistance turned support intact, further rally is in favor. As noted before, corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.73; (P) 111.02; (R1) 111.20; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 112.07 is still extending. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained by 110.44 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 112.07 will extend larger rise to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 next. However, break of 110.44 will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.11 support.

In the bigger picture, break of 111.71 resistance suggests that the whole corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed at 101.18 (2020 low) already. Medium term bullishness is also affirmed as USD/JPY stays well above 55 week EMA (now at 108.60). Sustained trading above 111.71 will affirm this bullish case. Rise from 101.18 could then be resuming whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) through 118.65. This will now be the preferred case as long as 108.71 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.16; (P) 109.37; (R1) 109.73; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 107.65 is in progress. Sustained break of 109.72 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.45 to channel resistance (now at 111.46). On the downside, below 109.00 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But overall outlook will remain bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 104.45 to 109.72 at 107.70 holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Recovery from 104.45 also failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 109.02). Overall outlook remains bearish and fall from 118.65 is in favor to extend through 104.45 low. This will now stay as the favored case as long as 109.72 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.91; (P) 108.59; (R1) 109.13; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as the medium term decline from 118.65 has just resumed. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. We’ll look for support from there again to bring rebound. On the upside, above 108.45 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will now stay bearish as long as 110.66 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, pull back from 118.65 is viewed as a corrective pattern for the moment and downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound. Rise from 98.97 is expected to extend later to retest 125.85 high. However, sustained break of 106.48 will dampen this view and bring deeper fall to retest 98.97 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.35; (P) 111.56; (R1) 111.74; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and range trading continues inside 110.68/111.82. On the upside, break of 111.82 will reaffirm the case that correction from 113.17 has completed at 109.76. And in that case, further rise should be seen back to retest 113.17 high. On the downside, below 110.68 will bring another fall. But still, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.96; (P) 112.37; (R1) 112.70; More…

At this point, USD/JPY is staying in range of 112.02/113.74 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 112.02 support holds. Break of 113.74 will resume the rebound from 110.83 and target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 112.02 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 114.73 with another leg through 110.83 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.86; (P) 114.04; (R1) 114.31; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside as rise from 112.71 resumes. On the upside, sustained break of 114.69 will resume larger up trend for 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. On the downside, below 113.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside to extend the consolidation pattern from 114.59. But, we’d continue to expect downside to be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.43; (P) 108.65; (R1) 108.88; More…

USD/JPY’s decline continues today and reaches as low as 107.41 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside and break of 107.31 will target 106.48 fibonacci level. We’d look for strong support around there to bring rebound. However, on the upside, break of 108.80 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.82; (P) 113.08; (R1) 113.44; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 structural support will argue that fall from 115.51 is already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper decline would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.56; (P) 110.93; (R1) 111.22; More…

At this point, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for 110.23. Break will resume the fall from 114.36 to 108.12 and below. Note again that decline from 118.65 is seen as a correction. In that bearish case, we’ll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, above 111.46 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.23; (P) 111.34; (R1) 111.44; More…

At this point,f further rise is mildly in favor in USD/JPY as long as 110.80 minor support holds. Decisive break of 112.13 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.69 to 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, below 110.80 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 109.71, and possibly further to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.80), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we’ll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.23; (P) 125.78; (R1) 126.20; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment but further rise is expected with 124.75 support holds. On the upside, sustained break of 125.85 will carry larger bullish implication and target 130.04 long term projection level next. On the downside, break of 124.75 minor support will turn bias to the downside for pull back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 124.28) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.68; (P) 107.81; (R1) 108.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 108.80 resistance. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 108.80 will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. In this case, stronger rise should be seen back to 110.67 resistance. On the other hand, rejection by 108.80, followed by break of 107.56 will retain near term bearishness. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 106.78 support instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.60; (P) 109.85; (R1) 110.08; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 109.53 support holds. Break of 110.28 resistance will resume larger rebound from 104.45 and target medium term falling channel resistance at 111.19. However, break of 109.53 minor support will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.33; (P) 159.55; (R1) 159.90; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 157.70 resistance turned support holds. Sustained break of 106.20 and 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37 will confirm long term up trend resumption, and pave the way to 161.8% projection at 163.97. Nevertheless, firm break of 157.70 will turn bias back to the downside for channel support (now at 156.41) first.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of long term trend reversal yet. Further rally is expected as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 160.02 will target 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.31; (P) 107.54; (R1) 107.77; More…

Further decline is still in favor in USD/JPY. Rebound from 104.45 should have completed at 108.47 already. Break of 106.68 will confirm this case and target retest of 104.45 low. On the upside, however, break of 108.47 will extend the rebound towards 109.31 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

USD/JPY’s break of 109.28 resistance last week indicates resumption of whole rise from 104.45. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 109.31 structural resistance will add to the case of medium term reversal. Next near term target is 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. On the downside, below 108.64 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 107.88 support holds.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.