Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.33; (P) 108.69; (R1) 109.26; More….

USD/JPY formed a temporary low at 108.12 after hitting near term channel support. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Current development argues that rise from 98.97 is already completed at 118.65. Hence, we’d expect upside of recovery to limited by 110.10 minor resistance to bring another decline. Below 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 98.97 low. Nonetheless, break of 110.10 will be the first sign of near term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 112.19 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.84; (P) 137.34; (R1) 138.16; More…

Break of 137.84 suggests that USD/JPY is resuming the rebound from 133.61. The development also affirms that case of short term bottoming at 133.61. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 133.61 at 140.60, which is close to 55 day EMA (now at 140.80). On the downside, however, break of 135.59 minor support will bring retest of 133.61 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.71) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.36; (P) 111.51; (R1) 111.78; More…

USD/JPY retreats after failing to break through 112.07 resistance and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 112.07 could still extend. But in case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 110.44 support. On the upside, above 112.07 will extend larger rise to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 next. However, break of 110.44 will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.11 support.

In the bigger picture, break of 111.71 resistance suggests that the whole corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed at 101.18 (2020 low) already. Medium term bullishness is also affirmed as USD/JPY stays well above 55 week EMA (now at 108.60). Sustained trading above 111.71 will affirm this bullish case. Rise from 101.18 could then be resuming whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) through 118.65. This will now be the preferred case as long as 108.71 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.61; (P) 114.18; (R1) 114.56; More…

USD/JPY weakens today but loss is limited so far. It’s holding above 55 hour EMA and stays well in range of 111.58/114.94. Intraday bias remains neutral first. The corrective fall from 118.65 might not be completed yet. But still, in case of another fall, we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 114.94 will indicate that it’s completed with a double bottom pattern (111.58, 111.68). In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.02; (P) 111.60; (R1) 111.98; More….

USD/JPY is staying in range of 110.99/112.19 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 112.19 temporary will turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm completion of the correction from 118.65. In that case, further rise should be seen to 118.65 and above to resume the rally from 98.97. On the downside, though, below 110.99 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 110.10 and break will extend the corrective fall from 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.16) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.39; (P) 113.91; (R1) 114.20; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Pull back from 114.44 could extend lower. But after all, outlook will stays cautiously bullish as long as 111.64 support holds. Decisive break of 114.49 key resistance will confirm that correction pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. And USD/JPY should then target a test on 118.65.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.28; (P) 108.43; (R1) 108.72; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 107.81 could extend further. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 109.02 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support. However, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first..

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.36; (P) 108.53; (R1) 108.78; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more sideway trading could be seen. On the upside, break of 109.48 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.45 and target trend line resistance (now at 111.79). On the downside, break of 108.24 support will revive the case of short term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 107.88 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.78; (P) 109.22; (R1) 109.98; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. As noted before, larger decline from 114.73 is possibly still in progress. Break of 108.27 will also resume the medium term correction from 118.65. That will send USD/JPY through 107.31 to 106.48 fibonacci level. Nonetheless, above 110.47 will turn intraday bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.14; (P) 111.49; (R1) 112.13; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as the rebound from 110.23 might extend higher. But it’s still seen as a corrective move. Below 110.85 minor support will turn bias to the downside to extend the fall from 114.36 to 108.12 low. Break there will resume the whole decline from 118.65. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.82; (P) 108.14; (R1) 108.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as fall from 112.40 is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. On the upside, break of 109.02 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.41; (P) 110.82; (R1) 111.16; More…

With 111.46 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for 110.23 support. Break will resume the fall from 114.36 to 108.12 and below. Note again that decline from 118.65 is seen as a correction. In that bearish case, we’ll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, above 111.46 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.75; (P) 109.93; (R1) 110.02; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Corrective fall from 110.28 is in progress to 55 day EMA (now at 109.12). Break will put focus on 107.65 key support. On the upside, break of 109.76 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 110.28 high instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.01; (P) 115.35; (R1) 115.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for retesting 116.34 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, below 114.46 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.07) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.96; (P) 112.18; (R1) 112.55; More…

USD/JPY rises to as high as 112.91 in early US session and touching near term channel resistance. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained break of the channel will argue that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 111.82 minor support will turn bias neutral first. If that happens, we’ll assess the near term outlook alter.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.19; (P) 112.71; (R1) 113.19; More..

USD/JPY breached 112.30 but quickly recovered. For now, deeper decline is still expected as long as 113.24 minor resistance holds. Further fall should be seen to 111.37 and possibly below. But still, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of deep decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later. On the upside, above 113.24 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 114.03 resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.96; (P) 105.32; (R1) 105.69; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 105.80 will resume the rebound from 104.00 to 106.94 resistance next. on the downside, break of 104.92 will suggest completion of rebound from 104.00. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.52; (P) 107.84; (R1) 108.19; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside at this point. Decline from 110.95 would continue towards 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77. On the upside, break of 108.53 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, deeper fall will remain in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95, as the third leg of the pattern from 101.18 low. Medium term outlook is neutral first, as the pair could have turned into sideway trading between 101.18/111.71. We’d look at the structure and momentum of the fall from 110.95 to gauge the chance of upside breakout at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.36; (P) 160.82; (R1) 161.37; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with break of 161.27 temporary top. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. On the downside, below 160.25 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.63; (P) 147.54; (R1) 148.44; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 148.79 is extending. As long as 145.97 support holds, further rally is in favor. Corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.