Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.09; (P) 156.43; (R1) 156.78; More…

USD/JPY continues to lose upside momentum as seen in 4H MACD. But further rise could still be seen with 155.25 support intact. Rebound from 151.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, is in progress for 157.98 resistance. On the downside, break of 155.25 minor support will suggest that the third leg has started, and turn bias back to the downside for 151.86 support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.69; (P) 111.09; (R1) 111.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Correction from 114.73 could have completed with three waves down to 110.18, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. Above 111.47 will target 113.38 resistance first. Break of 113.38 should confirm this bullish case. However, below 110.18 will extend the correction lower. But we’d again look for bottoming signal in next fall.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.91; (P) 109.13; (R1) 109.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 107.47 will target 109.95 resistance first. Break there will pave the way to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, though, break of 108.70 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support again, to extend the pattern from 110.95.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95. But strong support from 55 day EMA retains near term bullishness for the pair. Break of 110.95 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 112.22 resistance next. Though, break of 107.47 support will shift favor to the case of long term sideway trading between 101.18/111.71.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.62; (P) 108.88; (R1) 109.14; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 108.33 minor support intact, consolidation from 109.35 should be brief. On the upside, break of 109.35 will resume the larger rise from 102.58 long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. However, on the downside, break of 108.33 will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.75; (P) 109.23; (R1) 109.55; More…

With 108.70 minor support intact, further rise is still in favor in USD/JPY. Rebound from 107.47 would target 109.95 resistance first. Break there will pave the way to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, though, break of 108.70 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support again, to extend the pattern from 110.95.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95. But strong support from 55 day EMA retains near term bullishness for the pair. Break of 110.95 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 112.22 resistance next. Though, break of 107.47 support will shift favor to the case of long term sideway trading between 101.18/111.71.

USD/JPY rebounded after dipping to 112.56 last week. The development argues that pull back from 118.65 could have completed already. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside for 118.65 first. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance. In case of another fall, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.38; (P) 108.64; (R1) 109.12; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed after brief consolidations. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside. Current rise from 104.45 should target 109.31 key resistance first. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. On the downside, below 108.15 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is not confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.13; (P) 112.85; (R1) 113.25; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Decline from 113.74 is still seen as a correction. As noted before, as long as 111.98 support holds, further rally is expected in the pair. On the upside, above 113.68 will extend the rise from 110.83 to 114.73 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 107.31. More importantly, that will confirm completion of medium term correction from 118.65 at 107.31. In that case, retest of 118.65 should be seen next. However, break of 111.98 support will extend the correction from 114.73 with another fall, possibly to 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14 before completion.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed a 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.79; (P) 108.21; (R1) 108.50; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 112.40 has just resumed. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support. On the upside, break of 108.80 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.77; (P) 141.51; (R1) 142.86; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 137.66/142.45 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 137.66 will resume the decline from 151.93, to 133.07 fibonacci level, as a correction to the larger up trend. Nevertheless, firm break of 142.45 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 143.34) and above.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.28).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.01; (P) 155.75; (R1) 156.86; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 157.70 resistance holds. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. On the downside, break of 154.53 will target 153.59 support first. Break there will pave the way to 151.86 support and below.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 147.77) holds, fall from 160.20 is seen as correcting the rise from 140.25 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.30; (P) 109.62; (R1) 109.88; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range below 110.19 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is mildly in favor with 108.55 support intact. On the upside, above 110.19 will resume the rise from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 102.58 to 111.71 resistance next. On the downside, break of 108.55 will turn bias to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above.

USD/JPY edged higher to 113.25 last week but failed to sustain above medium term channel resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week first. With 111.46 minor support intact, further rise is in favor. Sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.55; (P) 110.73; (R1) 110.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading from 111.13 is still in progress. On the downside, break of 110.00 resistance turned support will suggest rejection by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 and the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 111.13 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it couldn’t sustain above 55 day EMA yet. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.71; (P) 105.07; (R1) 105.35; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for retesting 104.18 support. Break there will resume larger fall from 111.71 and target 61.8% projection of 109.85 to 104.18 from 106.94 at 103.43 next. On the upside, though, above 105.54 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.30; (P) 109.62; (R1) 109.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is mildly in favor with 108.55 support intact. On the upside, above 110.19 will resume the rise from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 102.58 to 111.71 resistance next. On the downside, break of 108.55 will turn bias to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.69; (P) 106.09; (R1) 106.67; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 105.52 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another recovery upside should be limited below 109.31 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 105.52 will target 104.69 low next.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.05; (P) 107.31; (R1) 107.62; More..

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 108.24 minor resistance holds. On the downside, break of 106.57 will target 105.98 support and below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 108.24 will turn bias back to the upside for 109.85 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support could extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.98; (P) 110.08; (R1) 110.16; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 109.17/110.32 and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, above 110.32 will resume the rise from 107.47. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 110.95 high. On the downside, below 109.17 will target 108.55 support, and then 107.47.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.35; (P) 113.01; (R1) 113.44; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is neutral for the moment. Deeper fall is still in favor with 113.18 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, below 112.57 will target 112.30 first. Break will target 111.37 and possibly below. On the upside, above 113.18 will turn bias back to the upside for 114.03 resistance first. Overall, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of deep decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.