Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.44; (P) 106.83; (R1) 107.34; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 104.45 short term bottom is in progress. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 107.17) will pave the way to 109.31 key resistance. On the downside, break of 105.73 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.45 low instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 109.31 resistance is needed to the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.07; (P) 109.28; (R1) 109.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 109.68 temporary top. Further rise is in favor with 108.70 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 109.68 will resume the rebound from 107.47 for retesting 110.95 high. On the downside, though, break of 108.70 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support again, to extend the pattern from 110.95.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95. But strong support from 55 day EMA retains near term bullishness for the pair. Break of 110.95 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 112.22 resistance next. Though, break of 107.47 support will shift favor to the case of long term sideway trading between 101.18/111.71.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.00; (P) 109.38; (R1) 109.64; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside, as fall from 110.79 is in progress for 108.71 support. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next. On the upside, above 109.74 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 110.79 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.08; (P) 109.43; (R1) 109.66; More…

Break of 109.05 support suggest resumption of fall from 111.65. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18. On the upside, above 109.82 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 110.58 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.98; (P) 112.36; (R1) 112.63; More..

Despite dipping to 111.82, USD/JPY recovered well ahead of 111.62 support. Intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the upside, break of 112.88 resistance will resume the rebound from 111.62. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 111.62 at 113.42 to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 111.82 will likely resume the fall from 114.54 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. As the fall from 114.54 is viewed as part of medium term correction, we’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.26; (P) 110.46; (R1) 110.66; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 110.00 resistance turned support will suggest rejection by 110.77 and the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 111.13 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it couldn’t sustain above 55 day EMA yet. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.03; (P) 107.28; (R1) 107.54; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 106.63/108.16 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break 106.63 will target 106.07. Break there will extend the whole pattern from 111.71 and target 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, however, break of 108.16 will resume the rebound from 106.07 and target 109.85 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.39; (P) 107.64; (R1) 108.03; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. While the rebound from 105.54 is strong, it’s limited below 108.27 support turned resistance. Such rebound is seen as a corrective move. Intraday bias stays neutral and near term outlook remains bearish. Below 105.54 will extend the larger fall from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. However, break of 107.72 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.83; (P) 156.99; (R1) 157.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for 100% projection of 151.86 to 156.78 from 153.59 at 158.51. On the downside, below 155.83 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 153.69 will target 151.86 and below as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.30; (P) 105.50; (R1) 105.76; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with a temporary top in place at 105.70. Some consolidations but further rise is in favor as long as 104.92 minor support holds. Break of 105.70 will resume the rebound from 104.00 short term bottom to 55 day EMA (now at 105.98). Sustained break of 55 day EMA will raise the chance of bullish reversal and target 106.94 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, below 104.92 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.69; (P) 103.80; (R1) 103.98; More..

Consolidations continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 104.39 and sustained trading above the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 103.51 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.92; (P) 113.22; (R1) 113.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain neutral with focus on 112.88 support. Firm break of 112.88 will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed at 114.49 after being rejected by 114.36 key near term resistance. That would also argue that the correction from 118.65 is still in progress. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 111.98). On the upside, decisive break of 114.36 resistance will confirm that corrective pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12. In that case, further rally would be seen to retest 118.65.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.51; (P) 108.70; (R1) 108.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 107.93 minor support intact, further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 108.99 will resume the rebound from 106.78 for 100% projection of 106.78 to 108.99 from 107.21 at 109.42 and then 161.8% projection at 110.78. On the downside, below 107.93 minor support will turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.51; (P) 112.71; (R1) 113.02; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s staying in tight range below 113.25. On the upside, sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.30; (P) 109.62; (R1) 109.88; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range below 110.19 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is mildly in favor with 108.55 support intact. On the upside, above 110.19 will resume the rise from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 102.58 to 111.71 resistance next. On the downside, break of 108.55 will turn bias to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.09; (P) 109.36; (R1) 109.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside at this point. Corrective rise from 107.47 should have completed at 110.32. Deeper fall would be seen to 108.55 support first. Break there should indicate that pattern from 110.95 has started the first leg already. Deeper fall would be seen to 107.47 support next. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 110.32 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.87; (P) 114.01; (R1) 114.21; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for retesting 114.69 high. Sustained break there will resume larger up trend for 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. On the downside, in case of another fall, we’d continue to expect downside to be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.69; (P) 106.09; (R1) 106.67; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 105.52 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another recovery upside should be limited below 109.31 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 105.52 will target 104.69 low next.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.05; (P) 107.31; (R1) 107.62; More..

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 108.24 minor resistance holds. On the downside, break of 106.57 will target 105.98 support and below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 108.24 will turn bias back to the upside for 109.85 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support could extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.98; (P) 110.08; (R1) 110.16; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 109.17/110.32 and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, above 110.32 will resume the rise from 107.47. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 110.95 high. On the downside, below 109.17 will target 108.55 support, and then 107.47.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.