Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.52; (P) 110.97; (R1) 111.82; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Focus is back on 111.46 minor resistance. With 109.76 key support intact, break of 111.46 will revive near term bullishness. In this case, intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 112.67) first. On the downside, below 110.13 will target 109.76 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Break of 109.76 support will start another medium term down leg to 98.97/104.62 support zone. On the upside, break of 114.73 resistance will likely extend the rise from 98.97 through 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.71; (P) 143.17; (R1) 143.70; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and consolidation from 144.98 could extend. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.70; (P) 146.12; (R1) 146.68; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 147.36 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 144.52 support holds, further rally remains in favor. Above 147.36 will resume the rise from 127.20 to retest 151.93 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 144.52 should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 142.96).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.51; (P) 113.67; (R1) 113.94; More..

USD/JPY’s rise from 112.30 is in progress and reaches as high as 113.90 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 114.20/73 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 104.62. On the downside, below 113.41 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Overall, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of another decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.82; (P) 111.16; (R1) 111.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Downside of retreat should be contained by 110.44 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 112.07 will extend larger rise to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 next. However, break of 110.44 will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.11 support.

In the bigger picture, break of 111.71 resistance suggests that the whole corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed at 101.18 (2020 low) already. Medium term bullishness is also affirmed as USD/JPY stays well above 55 week EMA (now at 108.60). Sustained trading above 111.71 will affirm this bullish case. Rise from 101.18 could then be resuming whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) through 118.65. This will now be the preferred case as long as 108.71 support holds.

USD/JPY’s steep fall last week indicates rejection from 114.49 resistance. Initial bas stays on the downside this week with focus on 111.64 support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rebound from 107.31 has completed. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 101.14 and below. On the upside, though, break of 113.32 minor resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming. However, firm break of 111.64 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 107.31 instead.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.49; (P) 106.90; (R1) 107.31; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 104.45 should have completed at 108.57. Deeper fall should be seen to retest 104.45 low. On the upside, above 107.29 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 108.47 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.15; (P) 111.40; (R1) 111.82; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside and rise from 107.31 is still in progress. Further rally would be seen to medium term channel resistance (now at 112.91). Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 118.65 has completed too. In that case, further rise should be seen to 114.49 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, break of 109.54 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.15; (P) 108.51; (R1) 108.77; More..

With 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first. We’re favoring the case that rebound from 104.45 has completed at 109.48, after failing to sustain above 109.31 structural resistance. On the downside, break of 107.88 will affirm this bearish case and target 106.48 next. On the upside, firm break of 109.48 is now needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.49; (P) 111.70; (R1) 111.84; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. Deeper decline remains mildly in favor as a short term top was formed at 112.40 already. On the downside, break of 110.84 support add to the case of reversal and target 109.71 support and below. However, decisive break of 112.40 will confirm rise resumption for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.80; (P) 109.90; (R1) 110.02; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 110.21 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 109.24 minor support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 110.21 will extend whole rise from 104.45 to 100% projection of 106.48 to 109.72 from 107.65 at 110.89 next.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.33; (P) 110.66; (R1) 111.06; More….

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 109.91 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 112.18 remains intact, outlook stays bearish for deeper fall. Below 109.91 will target 108.81 support first. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.18 resistance will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.58; (P) 110.78; (R1) 111.04; More…

USD/JPY retreats mildly after hitting 111.18. But with 110.62 minor support intact, intraday bias stays mildly on the upside. The pull back from 112.13 should have completed with three waves down to 109.71. Further rise would be seen to 112.13 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 104.69 to 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, below 110.53 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 109.71 and possibly further to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.80), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we’ll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.05; (P) 106.16; (R1) 106.25; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case that pull back from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest 104.18 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.11; (P) 110.39; (R1) 110.77; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Corrective recovery from 109.02 might extend higher. But upside should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 110.84) to bring another fall. On the downside, below 109.81 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 109.02. Break there will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. However, sustained trading above 55 day EMA will indicate completion of the fall from 112.40 and bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.67; (P) 108.88; (R1) 109.17; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is still expected as long as 109.65 resistance holds. Break of 108.73 will target 107.65 key support. However, break of 109.65 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 110.28 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise form 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.71; (P) 109.97; (R1) 110.23; More…

USD/JPY rebounds strongly today but stays below 110.95 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and another fall is in favor. On the downside, below 109.71 will resume the fall from 112.13 to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28. Break of 109.28 will target 61.8% retracement at 107.53 next. On the upside, break of 110.95 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 112.13 instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.91), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we’ll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.07; (P) 144.44; (R1) 144.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 145.89 is extending. Further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.30; (P) 105.48; (R1) 105.70; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 105.70 is extending. With 104.92 support intact, further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of will resume the rebound from 104.00 short term bottom to 55 day EMA (now at 105.97). Sustained break of 55 day EMA will raise the chance of bullish reversal and target 106.94 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, below 104.92 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.75; (P) 112.88; (R1) 113.10; More..

USD/JPY’s rebound and break of 113.21 minor resistance suggests that rise from 112.30 is resuming. Intraday bias is turned to he upside for 114.20/73 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 104.62. On the downside, break of 112.66 minor support will extend the fall from 114.20, likely towards 111.37 support. But after all, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of deep decline, should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.