Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.28; (P) 110.68; (R1) 110.99; More…

USD/JPY drops notably today but stays above 110.25 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 110.25 minor support will suggest rejection by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. And in that case, the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, firm break of 111.23 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it’s struggle to get rid of 55 day EMA completely. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.80; (P) 114.65; (R1) 115.56; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain son the downside for the moment. The decline from 118.65 would extend to 55 day EMA (now at 113.22) and below. At this point, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 116.86 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.21; (R1) 109.49; More..

USD/JPY’s pull back from 109.72 extends further lower but stays above 108.27 support. Rise from 104.45 is still mildly in favor to extend. On the upside, above 109.20 minor resistance will bring retest of 109.72 resistance first. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.63; (P) 147.54; (R1) 148.44; More…

USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 148.79 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Still, as long as 145.97 support holds, further rally is in favor. Corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.68; (P) 109.86; (R1) 110.17; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will now confirm completion of the rebound and bring retest of 104.69 low. However, sustained trading above 110.77 will dampen our bearish view and target a test on 114.54 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.55) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.13; (P) 112.85; (R1) 113.25; More…

USD/JPY’s pull back from 113.74 extended lower but it’s kept well above 111.98 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral and such decline is still seen as a correction. As noted before, as long as 111.98 support holds, further rally is expected in the pair. On the upside, above 113.68 will extend the rise from 110.83 to 114.73 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 107.31. More importantly, that will confirm completion of medium term correction from 118.65 at 107.31. In that case, retest of 118.65 should be seen next. However, break of 111.98 support will extend the correction from 114.73 with another fall, possibly to 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14 before completion.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed a 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.91; (P) 108.59; (R1) 109.13; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as the medium term decline from 118.65 has just resumed. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. We’ll look for support from there again to bring rebound. On the upside, above 108.45 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will now stay bearish as long as 110.66 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, pull back from 118.65 is viewed as a corrective pattern for the moment and downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound. Rise from 98.97 is expected to extend later to retest 125.85 high. However, sustained break of 106.48 will dampen this view and bring deeper fall to retest 98.97 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.51; (P) 113.75; (R1) 114.12; More…

USD/JPY’s pull back from 114.73 extends lower today. But still, it’s staying above 112.95 support. Near term outlook remains bullish and further rally is expected. Sustained trading above 114.49 key resistance will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 112.95 support will now indicate rejection from 114.49 and turn bias to the downside for 111.64 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.78; (P) 107.29; (R1) 107.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside. As noted before, rebound from 104.45 should have completed at 108.47 already. Break of 106.68 will confirm this case and target retest of 104.45 low. On the upside, however, break of 108.47 will extend the rebound towards 109.31 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.59; (P) 110.83; (R1) 111.23; More…

USD/JPY rose to 111.13 earlier today but retreated sharply since then. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Focus remains on whether USD/JPY could sustain above 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. If yes, further rise could be seen back to 114.54 resistance. However, break of 110.00 will suggest that it’s actually rejected after the rebound from 104.69 was skewed slightly upwards. In that case, the original bearish view will be revived and further fall should be seen through 108.49 support.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 104.69 mixed up outlook. We’d turn neutral for now first. On the upside, firm break of 110.77 resistance will suggest that fall from 114.54 has completed at 104.69 already. Such decline is seen as a leg in the corrective pattern from 118.65, which might be finished too. Decisive break of 114.54 will confirm this case and target 118.65 and above. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will turn focus back to 104.62/9 support zone instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.71; (P) 105.97; (R1) 106.29; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and more consolidative trading could be seen. But as long as 106.73 resistance holds, outlook remains bearish for further decline. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.34).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.58; (P) 108.68; (R1) 108.83; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. With 108.27 support intact, further rally is still expected. On the upside, above 109.20 minor resistance will bring retest of 109.72 first. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.89; (P) 111.98; (R1) 112.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 112.13 key resistance. On the upside, sustained break of 112.13 will resume whole rise from 104.69 for 100 % projection of 109.71 to 111.82 and 110.84 at 112.95 first. On the downside, below 111.69 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will bring deeper fall back to 109.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.45; (P) 109.78; (R1) 110.10; More…

With 110.28 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside despite diminishing downside momentum. Sustained break of 109.72 key support will confirm completion of rebound from 104.69 at 112.40 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper decline should then be seen back to retest 104.69 low. On the upside, though, rebound from current level and break of 110.28 minor resistance will mix up near term outlook. Intraday bias will be turned neutral in this case first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Sustained break of 109.71 will argue that rebound from 104.69 is completed. And the down trend from 118.65 is still in progress. But at this stage, in case of break of 104.69, we’d expect strong support above 98.9 (2016 low) to contain downside an bring rebound.

Range trading continued in USD/JPY last week again and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.86; (P) 107.11; (R1) 107.28; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues inside 106.63/108.16. On the downside, break 106.63 will target 106.07. Break there will extend the whole pattern from 111.71 and target 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, however, break of 108.16 will resume the rebound from 106.07 and target 109.85 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.29; (P) 108.54; (R1) 108.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. The support from 55 day EMA revived some near term bullishness. Further rise would be seen to 109.95 resistance first. Break there will bring retest of 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.19 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support, and then 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95, as the third leg of the pattern from 101.18 low. Medium term outlook is neutral first, as the pair could have turned into sideway trading between 101.18/111.71. We’d look at the structure and momentum of the fall from 110.95 to gauge the chance of upside breakout at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.01; (P) 112.45; (R1) 112.83; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s staying above 111.98 support. Another rise is still mildly in favor. Above 112.87 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 113.74. Break will target 114.73 key resistance. However, firm break of 111.98 support will extend the decline from 114.73 with another fall, possibly to 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14 before completion.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed a 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.20; (P) 108.34; (R1) 108.59; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. With 107.45 minor support intact, further rise cannot be ruled out. But we’d continue to look for topping sign as it approaches this 109.31 key resistance. On the downside, break of 107.45 minor support will suggest that rebound from 104.45 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside. Break of 106.68 resistance turned support will confirm and target 104.45 low. However, decisive break of 109.31 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.79; (P) 110.56; (R1) 111.59; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 107.31 continues today and reaches 111.44 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for medium term channel resistance (now at 112.91). Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 118.65 has completed too. In that case, further rise should be seen to 114.49 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, break of 109.54 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.