Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.68; (P) 109.80; (R1) 109.89; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment and further rise is in favor as long as 109.53 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 110.28 will resume whole rally from 104.45. Though, break of 109.53 will turn bias to the downside for 108.30 support instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.30; (P) 145.55; (R1) 145.97; More…

USD/JPY is still limited by 145.89 resistance and intraday bias stays neutral. Overall, further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will bring deeper decline towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.77; (P) 110.05; (R1) 110.38; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 111.65 resumes by breaking through 109.52 support and reaches as low as 109.05 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current development suggests that such decline is at least correcting the rise from 102..58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18. On the upside, break of 110.33 resistance is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA would argue that the pattern from 101.18 is starting another falling leg, that could head back to 102.58 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.93; (P) 108.22; (R1) 108.66; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Price actions from 109.72 are merely a corrective pattern, which could have completed at 107.77, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 104.45 to 109.72 at 107.70. Further rise should be seen for 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 108.70). Sustained break will pave the way to retest 109.72 high. On the downside, firm break of 107.70 will pave the way to 106.48 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 106.46).

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Recovery from 104.45 also failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 109.02). Overall outlook remains bearish and fall from 118.65 is in favor to extend through 104.45 low. This will now stay as the favored case as long as 109.72 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.59; (P) 137.99; (R1) 138.61; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 139.37 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained by 134.73 support. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.18; (P) 136.08; (R1) 137.48; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside for retesting 133.61 support and then 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 137.95 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.71) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.44; (P) 109.54; (R1) 109.67; More..

USD/JPY drops notably after being rejection by 109.72 resistance, but stays in consolidation from there. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.73; (P) 109.01; (R1) 109.18; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 108.34/109.77 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is mildly in favor for now. Break of 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.81; (P) 113.18; (R1) 113.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 114.49 resistance . As noted before, correction pattern from 118.65 could have completed at 107.31 already. Decisive of 114.49 resistance should confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 resistance and above. For now, this will be the preferred case as long as 111.64 support holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completed. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.95; (P) 109.27; (R1) 109.81; More…

USD/JPY rebounds further today but stays below 110.00 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 110.00 will extend the rebound from 104.69. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 108.49 will target 107.77 support first. Break will confirm completion of the rebound and bring retest of 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.55) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.25; (P) 109.57; (R1) 110.09; More…

Further rise is still expected in USD/JPY as rebound from 104.69 is in progress. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. We’d look for topping signal above there. On the downside, break of 107.77 minor support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise remains in favor even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.13; (P) 113.57; (R1) 113.85; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 114.69 is still extending. On the downside, break of 113.24 will bring deeper pull back, but downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.38; (P) 155.65; (R1) 156.02; More…

Further rise is mildly in favor in USD/JPY despite loss of upside momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Rebound from 151.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, could extend towards 157.98 resistance. On the downside, break of 154.23 will suggest that the third leg has started, and turn bias back to the downside for 151.86 support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

USD/JPY turned sideway after edging higher to 157.70 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Decisive break of 156.36 will confirm short term topping at 157.70, on bearish divergence condition in 4 H MACD. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 153.59 support. Firm break there will target 151.86 and below as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

In the long term picture, as long as 140.25 support holds, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 172.08.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.64; (P) 140.12; (R1) 141.08; More…

Immediate focus is now on 137.66 support in USD/JPY with today’s decline. Firm break there will resume the whole fall from 151.93, as a correction to the larger up trend. Next target is 100% projection of 146.78 to 137.66 from 142.24 at 133.12, which is close to 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. Meanwhile, outlook will stay bearish as long as 142.45 resistance holds, in case of another recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.28).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.91; (P) 109.71; (R1) 110.20; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with a temporary low formed at 109.11. Some consolidation would be seen. But another fall is expected as long as 111.70 resistance holds. Below 109.11 will target 108.12 low first. Break will extend whole decline from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. As such decline is seen as a correction, we’ll looking for bottoming signal around 106.48. Meanwhile, break of 110.70 will suggest near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 114.36 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.80; (P) 113.03; (R1) 113.41; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back to the downside with break of 112.57 minor support. Break of 112.30 will will extend the fall from 114.20 to 111.37 support and below. But after all, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of deep decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later. On the upside, above 113.24 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 114.03 resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.98; (P) 108.30; (R1) 108.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 104.45 is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. On the downside, below 107.77 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is not confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.17; (P) 109.40; (R1) 109.59; More…

USD/JPY weakens mildly today but stays above 109.02 low. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen first. In case of another rise upside should be limited below 110.67 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 109.02 will resume the fall from 112.40 and target 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 next.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Current development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.48; (P) 109.77; (R1) 110.07; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound form 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.