Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.13; (P) 143.53; (R1) 144.11; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in sideway consolidation from 144.98 and intraday bias stays neutral. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.61; (P) 108.95; (R1) 109.18; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 108.25 minor support suggests that a short term top is formed at 109.28, ahead of 109.31 key resistance, on bearish divergence condition. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 106.48 support first. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 104.45 and bring retest of this low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 109.28/31 holds, in case of recovery. However, decisive break of 109.31 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and target 112.40 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.38; (P) 155.65; (R1) 156.02; More…

Further rise is mildly in favor in USD/JPY despite loss of upside momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Rebound from 151.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, could extend towards 157.98 resistance. On the downside, break of 154.23 will suggest that the third leg has started, and turn bias back to the downside for 151.86 support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.35; (P) 109.51; (R1) 109.78; More…

USD/JPY is staying in tight range above 109.17 and intraday bias remains neutral. Also, risk stays on the downside with 110.32 resistance intact. Corrective rise from 107.47 should have completed at 110.32. Below 109.17 will target 108.55 support first. Break there should indicate that pattern from 110.95 has started the third leg already and target 107.47 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.68; (P) 110.87; (R1) 111.21; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside with focus on 111.65/71 resistance zone. Sustained break there will resume the up trend from 102.58, and suggest larger bullish trend reversal. Further rally would be seen to 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 110.92 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.60; (P) 132.04; (R1) 132.68; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 134.49 should confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rise to 138.16 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 129.49 at 138.06). However, break of 129.49 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.73) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 137.08) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.35; (P) 110.64; (R1) 111.02; More….

With 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first. On the downside, break of 110.10 will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65 and target 50% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 108.81. On the upside, however, break of 112.19 resistance will indicate short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.16) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.59; (P) 134.99; (R1) 135.63; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 136.70. Deeper retreat could be seen, but downside should be contained above 131.48 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.76; (P) 111.47; (R1) 111.89; More…

USD/JPY recovered ahead of 110.61 temporary low and stays in range below 112.41. Intraday bias remains neutral first. With 112.41 intact, further decline is expected. Below 110.61 will target 108.81. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.41 will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.91; (P) 150.34; (R1) 150.85; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with break of 149.84 minor support. Some consolidations would be seen first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 147.28 support holds, even in case of deep retreat. On the upside, above 150.76 will resume larger rally to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.51; (P) 108.62; (R1) 108.76; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. More sideway trading could be seen. On the upside, break of 109.48 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.45 and target trend line resistance (now at 111.79). On the downside, break of 108.24 support will revive the case of short term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 107.88 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.23; (P) 111.55; (R1) 111.92; More…

USD/JPY’s rally from 107.31 extends to as high as 112.62 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for medium term channel resistance (now at 113.03). Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 118.65 has completed too. In that case, further rise should be seen to 114.49 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 111.07 minor resistance will raise the risk of rejection from channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 110.53).

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.67; (P) 109.26; (R1) 109.58; More….

USD/JPY reaches as low as 108.72 so far as the fall from 118.65 extended. Deeper fall could still be seen as long as 110.10 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 50% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 108.81 will target 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and possibly below. Nonetheless, break of 110.10 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 112.19 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.15) will indicate that the second leg from 98.97 has completed at 118.65. And in that case, USD/JPY would start the third leg down through 98.97 low to 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. On the upside, break of 115.49 resistance should resume the rise from 98.97 for a test on 125.85 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.92; (P) 113.22; (R1) 113.58; More…

USD/JPY’s decline resumes in early US session and reaches as low as 112.44 so far. The break of 112.88 support indicates rejection from 114.36 resistance. And, rise from 108.81 should be completed at 114.49. More importantly, the corrective pattern from 118.65 is likely still in progress. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 111.98). Firm break there will target 108.12 low and below. Above 113.57 minor resistance will turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.36; (P) 109.51; (R1) 109.73; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 109.72 could extend. As long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.78; (P) 106.39; (R1) 106.74; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly after dipping to 105.54. Still intraday bias remains on the downside for deeper fall. Current fall is part of the pattern from 118.65 and should target 118.65 to 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, break of 107.89 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.04; (P) 106.36; (R1) 106.88; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Current rise form 102.58 should target 61.8% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 108.22. Sustained break there will raise the chance of larger bullish reversal, and target 111.71 resistance. On the downside, below 105.84 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.02).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.32; (P) 110.43; (R1) 110.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 110.79 temporary top. Outlook is unchanged that corrective fall from 111.65 should have completed with three waves down to 108.71. Another rise is in favor with 110.01 support intact. Break of 110.79 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 111.65 high. However, break of 110.01 will dampen this bullish view, and turn bias to the downside for 108.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.44; (P) 108.75; (R1) 109.00; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 109.48 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 109.48 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.45 and target trend line resistance (now at 111.79). On the downside, break of 108.24 support will revive the case of short term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 107.88 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.11; (P) 108.32; (R1) 108.60; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 108.62 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained above 106.48 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 108.62 will target 109.31 key resistance first. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is not confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.