Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.60; (P) 113.85; (R1) 114.05; More..

Further rise is expected in USD/JPY as long as 112.94 support holds, towards 114.54/73 resistance zone. As upside momentum isn’t too convincing, we’d be cautions strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another decline. Overall, rise from 104.62 is still in progress and decisive break of 114.73 will confirm resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.67; (P) 107.93; (R1) 108.19; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 108.47 will resume the rebound from 104.45 to 109.31 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 106.96 will extend the fall from 108.47. Further break of 106.68 will confirm completion of rebound from 104.45 and target a retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.81; (P) 145.61; (R1) 146.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside above 146.40 will resume the rebound from 140.25 to 61.8% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 147.44. Upside should be limited there to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 143.41 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 140.25 low.

In the bigger picture, for now, fall from 151.89 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.89. Another decline through 140.25 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63. Sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). However, firm break of 147.44 fibonacci resistance will dampen this view and bring retest of 151.89 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.01; (P) 113.53; (R1) 113.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. As it’s still holding on to 112.95 support, near term outlook remains bullish. On the upside, sustained break of 114.49 key resistance will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 112.95 support will now indicate rejection from 114.49 and turn bias to the downside for 111.64 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.10; (P) 109.40; (R1) 109.65; More…

USD/JPY’s rise from 104.69 resumes today by breaching 109.89. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. We’d look for topping signal above there. On the downside, break of 109.14 minor support will be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.09; (P) 110.38; (R1) 110.80; More…

USD/JPY rises further today but it’s still staying below 110.89 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 110.89 will resume the rise from 108.10 and target 111.39. Firm break there will resume the rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 key resistance. On the downside, below 109.36 will extend the consolidation from 111.39 with another decline. But we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.56; (P) 110.93; (R1) 111.22; More…

With 111.46 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for 110.23 support. Break will resume the fall from 114.36 to 108.12 and below. Note again that decline from 118.65 is seen as a correction. In that bearish case, we’ll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, above 111.46 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.09; (P) 111.35; (R1) 111.65; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, risks remain on the downside as long as 112.40 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 110.84 support will add to the case of bearish reversal and target 109.71 support and below. On the upside, firm break of 112.40 resistance will resume the rise from 104.69 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.14; (P) 144.53; (R1) 145.06; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 145.05 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 55 4H EMA (now at 143.67) could trigger deeper correction. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 140.90 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 145.06 will resume larger rise to 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 138.75 support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 138.75 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.04; (P) 113.16; (R1) 113.72; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 115.43 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.42; (P) 135.02; (R1) 135.84; More…

Further decline is expected in USD/JPY as long as 135.55 minor resistance holds. Fall from 139.37 is seen as correcting the medium term up trend. Further fall would be seen to 131.34 resistance turned support and below. But strong support is expected above 126.35 to contain downside, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 135.55 will bring stronger rise back to retest 139.37 high instead.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.01; (P) 112.41; (R1) 112.85; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. A short term top should be in place at 113.43, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Also, the pair is rejected by medium term channel resistance. Deeper fall would be seen to downside for 55 day EMA (now at 111.32) first. Sustained break there will bring retest of 107.31. For now, risk will stays on the downside as long as 113.43 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.39; (P) 110.67; (R1) 110.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside. Current rebound from 108.10 should target a test on 111.39 high. Break there will also resume the rise from 104.62 and target 114.73 key resistance. However, below 110.05 will turn bias to the downside for 109.36 to extend the corrective pattern from 111.39.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.87; (P) 109.05; (R1) 109.38; More..

Intraday bias stays neutral for the momentum and further rally is expected with 108.33 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 109.35 will resume the larger rise from 102.58 long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. However, on the downside, break of 108.33 will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.63; (P) 108.98; (R1) 109.21; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. Further rise is expected as long as 108.33 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 109.35 will resume the rally from 102.58 to long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. Decisive break there will carry larger implications. However, on the downside, break of 108.33 will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.68; (P) 103.88; (R1) 104.12; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation in range of 103.51/104.39 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 104.39 and sustained trading above the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 103.51 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.69; (P) 121.06; (R1) 121.51; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and hit target of 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63. There no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays on the upside for the moment. Sustained trading above 121.63 will pave the way to 125.85 long term resistance. On the downside, below 120.58 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 118.65 resistance (2016 high) suggest that up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming, with rise from 101.18 (2020 low) as the third leg. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 113.46 low. Next target is 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.24; (P) 133.85; (R1) 134.33; More…

USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 135.13 and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 132.03 support holds. On the upside, break of 135.13 will resume the choppy rebound from 129.62 towards 137.90 resistance next. However, break of 132.03 will argue that the rebound has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 129.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.54; (P) 106.00; (R1) 106.43; More...

With 105.20 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 106.07 support turned resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 104.18. More importantly, whole corrective decline from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18, just missed 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. In the case, further rise should be seen to 108.16 resistance next. However, break of 105.20 minor support will turn focus back to 104.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.75; (P) 107.79; (R1) 107.88; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 106.78 resumed by breaking 108.53. Focus is back on 108.80 resistance. Break will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. Further rise should then been seen to 110.67 resistance next. On the downside, break of 107.53 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 106.78 low..

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.