Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.34; (P) 148.75; (R1) 149.47; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Corrective fall from 150.87 should have completed at 146.47, after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81. Further rally should be seen to 150.87/89 key resistance zone. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 148.02 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price action from 151.89 (2023 high) are correction to up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). The question is whether this correction has completed at 140.25, or extending with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. Sustained break of above mentioned 146.81 fibonacci level will favor the latter case. But even so, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 139.54

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.14; (P) 110.91; (R1) 111.49; More..

USD/JPY’s break of 110.28 resistance turned support now raises the chance of near term bearish reversal. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 108.30 support next. Decisive break there will indicate completion of whole rise from 104.45 and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, above 111.04 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 112.22/40 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 108.30 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.84; (P) 109.01; (R1) 109.30; More…

USD/JPY rebound strongly today but stays in range of 108.34/109.77. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.23; (P) 111.59; (R1) 111.82; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 112.13 continues. As long as 110.35 support hold, near term outlook remains bullish. On the upside, break of 112.13 will resume the rally from 104.69 to 114.54 resistance next. However, firm break of 110.35 should confirm near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 108.49 support and below.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.81; (P) 110.06; (R1) 110.32; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 109.02 temporary low is extending. Upside should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 110.83) to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 109.02 will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.07; (P) 149.38; (R1) 149.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Retreat from 149.70 could extend lower. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 145.88 support holds. Above 149.70 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.15; (P) 113.47; (R1) 113.71; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.28; (P) 108.50; (R1) 108.67; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 107.81 and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited by 109.02 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. Though, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.31; (P) 109.55; (R1) 109.69; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as rebound from 107.47 is in favor to continue. Further rise would be seen to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, however, break of 108.34 support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below. Overall, USD/JPY was once again supported by 55 day EMA, which gives mild near term bullish favor.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.39; (P) 109.74; (R1) 110.11; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with the current recovery. On the downside, below 109.36 will resume the fall from 110.89 to 108.10 and possibly below. But as price actions from 111.39 are seen as a corrective pattern, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 110.89 will resume the rise from 108.10 towards 111.39.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.47; (P) 109.66; (R1) 110.02; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside as rise for 110.28 resistance. Break there will resume larger rebound from 104.45 and target medium term channel resistance at 111.23. On the downside, below 109.54 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.24; (P) 109.51; (R1) 109.87; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 109.02 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 110.04 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 109.02 will resume the fall from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. Nevertheless, break of 110.04 minor resistance will indicate short term bottom. Lengthier consolidation could be seen before another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.79; (P) 107.12; (R1) 107.59; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 107.29 minor resistance suggests temporary bottoming at 106.48. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, we’re still favoring the case that corrective recovery from 104.45 has completed at 108.47. Thus, risk will remain on the downside as long as 108.47 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 106.48 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.45 low. On the upside, break of 108.47 will dampen this view and resume the rebound from 104.45 to 109.31 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.71; (P) 108.85; (R1) 109.06; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Sideway trading from 109.48 might extend further. On the upside, break of 109.48 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.45 and target trend line resistance (now at 111.79). On the downside, break of 108.24 support will revive the case of short term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 107.88 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.44; (P) 111.93; (R1) 112.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as the decline from 114.49 is still in progress. As noted before, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper decline to 108.81 support. Break there will extend the whole correction from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.41 will turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.82; (P) 109.91; (R1) 110.08; More..

A temporary top is formed at 110.01 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, further rise is expected as long 108.30 support holds. Above 108.30 will target 110.28 first. Break will resume larger rebound from 104.45 and target medium term channel resistance at 111.23.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.85; (P) 134.41; (R1) 134.82; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Some more consolidations could be seen below 135.13. But another rally will remain in favor as long as 132.03 support holds. On the upside, break of 135.13 will resume the choppy rebound from 129.62 towards 137.90 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.59; (P) 148.23; (R1) 149.39; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Current up trend would target 61.8% projection of 130.38 to 140.33 from 145.89 at 149.91. Beware that Japan might intervene again there close to 150 psychological level. Nevertheless, break of 145.89 resistance turned support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is not clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 139.37 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.27; (P) 111.51; (R1) 111.75; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 111.18 support suggests that rebound from 109.71 has completed at 111.82. Also, the consolidation pattern from 112.13 is starting the third leg. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 109.71 and possibly below. But downside should be contained by 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28 to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 112.13 will resume whole rally from 104.69 and target 114.54 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.16; (P) 109.41; (R1) 109.62; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 109.77 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is mildly in favor for now. Break of 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend..