Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.04; (P) 111.30; (R1) 111.73; More…

USD/JPY rebounds after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA, but stays below 112.07 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Another retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 110.44 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 112.07 will extend larger rise to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 next. However, break of 110.44 will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.11 support.

In the bigger picture, break of 111.71 resistance suggests that the whole corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed at 101.18 (2020 low) already. Medium term bullishness is also affirmed as USD/JPY stays well above 55 week EMA (now at 108.60). Sustained trading above 111.71 will affirm this bullish case. Rise from 101.18 could then be resuming whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) through 118.65. This will now be the preferred case as long as 108.71 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.07; (P) 103.34; (R1) 103.57; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. Outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well inside falling channel from 111.71. Break of 102.87 will bring deeper fall to retest 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 104.57 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.70; (P) 109.89; (R1) 110.19; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.57; (P) 146.87; (R1) 147.25; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from 140.25. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 144.30 and below. Nevertheless, strong support from 146.81, followed by break of 148.29 minor resistance resistance, will argue that fall from 150.87 is merely a correction, which has completed already. Retest of 150.87 should be seen next.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price action from 151.89 (2023 high) are correction to up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). The question is whether this correction has completed at 140.25, or extending with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. Sustained break of above mentioned 146.81 fibonacci level will favor the latter case. But even so, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 139.54.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.30; (P) 105.50; (R1) 105.76; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for consolidations below 105.70 temporary top. Further rise is in favor as long as 104.92 minor support holds. Break of 105.70 will resume the rebound from 104.00 short term bottom to 55 day EMA (now at 105.98). Sustained break of 55 day EMA will raise the chance of bullish reversal and target 106.94 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, below 104.92 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.23; (P) 112.44(R1) 112.74; More..

The breach of 112.72 temporary top suggests that rebound from 111.62 is resuming. Intraday bias is turned to the upside for retesting 114.54 high. On the downside, break of 111.94 minor support will resume the correction from 114.54 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support in that case.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.28; (P) 112.72; (R1) 113.09; More…

USD/JPY drops sharply today with a strong break of 112.02 support. The development now suggests that decline from 114.73 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 110.83 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. We’d look for bottoming signal again below 110.14. On the upside, above 112.05 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.26; (P) 109.48; (R1) 109.81; More…

USD/JPY recovered ahead of 109.02 support. Intraday bias stays neutral as consolidation from 109.02 is extending. In case of another rise upside should be limited below 110.67 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 109.02 will resume the fall from 112.40 and target 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 next.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Current development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.29; (P) 108.47; (R1) 108.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term top should be formed. Upside of recovery should be limited below 109.28/31 resistance to bring fall another decline. On the downside, below 107.88 will target 106.48 support. break will confirm completion of whole rebound from 104.45 and target retest of this low. However, decisive break of 109.31 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and target 112.40 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.66; (P) 108.81; (R1) 109.01; More…

USD/JPY drops sharply in early US session but stays above 108.28 minor support. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, break of 108.28 will indicate completion of rebound from 106.78. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 107.53 support and then retesting 106.78 low. On the upside, break of 108.99 and sustained trading above 108.80 will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. Further rise should then been seen to 110.67 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.71; (P) 151.26; (R1) 151.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat, and some consolidations would be seen below 151.82. Further rise is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.51) holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 146.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.42; (P) 109.68; (R1) 109.88; More…

USD/JPY drops to as low as 108.87 so far today. Break of 109.02 support indicates resumption of fall from 112.40. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 next. Sustained trading below 107.63 will pave the way to retest 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 109.92 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Current development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.78; (P) 106.17; (R1) 106.38; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally. On the downside, break of 105.10 will target a test on 104.18. Break there will resume whole decline from 111.71.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.71; (P) 143.17; (R1) 143.70; More…

Sideway consolidation continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.30; (P) 145.55; (R1) 145.97; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 145.89 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, break of 143.51 minor support will turn bias back to the downside to 140.33 support. But overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

USD/JPY stayed in range of 109.10/110.79 last week and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY crawled higher to 114.44 with weak momentum last week. But it lacked sustainable buying to push through 114.49 key resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 114.49 will confirm that correction pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. And USD/JPY should then target a test on 118.65. And in any case, outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 111.64 support holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.97; (P) 107.55; (R1) 107.90; More…

At this point, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside. Fall from 112.40 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support. On the upside, break of 108.80 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.50; (P) 106.92; (R1) 107.28; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as fall from 111.71 is still in progress. Deeper fall would be seen to 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58 next. Momentum of the current decline and reaction from 104.58 should reveal whether USD/JPY is resuming larger down trend. On the upside, break of 108.04 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further fall will remain in favor even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.81; (P) 150.23; (R1) 150.63; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and more consolidations would be seen below 150.78. Downside of retreat should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level next. However, firm break of 148.79 will turn bias to the downside for 145.88 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption, and next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.