Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.94; (P) 107.17; (R1) 107.51; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, below 106.63 will target 106.07. Break there will extend the whole pattern from 111.71 and target 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, however, break of 108.16 will resume the rebound from 106.07 and target 109.85 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY’s fall from 114.49 extended lower last week. The development affirmed the view that rebound from 108.81 is completed at 114.49. More importantly, whole correction from 118.65 is possibly still in progress. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 108.81 support first. Break there will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, break of 112.41 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.66; (P) 106.03; (R1) 106.31; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly today but stays below 106.73 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 106.73 resistance holds, further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.22) and above.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 109.31 resistance is needed to the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.22; (P) 111.43; (R1) 111.81; More…

USD/JPY dips mildly after failing to break out 111.75/82 resistance zone. But downside is contained above 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 111.20) so far. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. And intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, break of 111.73 minor resistance will suggest that the rise from 109.76 is resuming. And intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 113.17 high. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 104.62. On the downside, below 110.37 will bring deeper fall. But strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.38; (P) 108.64; (R1) 109.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. On the downside, below 108.15 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 106.48 support holds.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is not confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.52; (P) 149.75; (R1) 149.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Consolidation pattern from 150.15 could extend further. On the downside, below 148.94 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg towards 147.28. On the upside, firm break of 150.15 will resume larger up trend to test 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.91; (P) 109.14; (R1) 109.35; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Current rally from 102.58 should target long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. Decisive break there will carry larger implications. On the downside, though, break of 108.33 support will now indicate short term topping, and bring deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.59; (P) 137.99; (R1) 138.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Consolidation form 139.37 is still in progress. Downside of retreat should be contained by 134.73 support. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.98; (P) 110.52; (R1) 111.19; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 109.83 temporary low might extends. Stronger rise cannot be ruled out. But still, near term outlook stays bearish as long as 112.18 resistance holds and deeper fall is expected. Break of 109.83 will target 108.81 support first. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.18 resistance will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.55; (P) 110.73; (R1) 110.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 110.00 resistance turned support will suggest rejection by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 and the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 111.13 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it couldn’t sustain above 55 day EMA yet. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.12; (P) 155.54; (R1) 155.91; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays mildly on the upside. Rebound from 151.86 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Further rise would be seen to 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 154.23 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.25; (P) 133.96; (R1) 134.97; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY inside 131.72/135.57 and intraday bias stays neutral first. Overall, corrective pattern from 139.37 will extend further. On the upside, above 135.57 will resume the rebound to retest 139.37 high. On the downside, below 131.72 will resume the fall from 139.37 through 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 122.70) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.74; (P) 108.10; (R1) 108.42; More…

USD/JPY is staying in tight range below 108.57 and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 107.45 minor support intact, further rise cannot be ruled out. But we’d continue to look for topping sign as it approaches this 109.31 key resistance. On the downside, break of 107.45 minor support will suggest that rebound from 104.45 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside. Break of 106.68 resistance turned support will confirm and target 104.45 low. However, decisive break of 109.31 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.86; (P) 111.93; (R1) 112.00; More…

USD?JPY breached 111.69 minor support briefly but quickly recovered. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 112.13 will resume whole rise from 104.69 for 100 % projection of 109.71 to 111.82 and 110.84 at 112.95 first. On the downside, firm break of 111.69 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will bring deeper fall back to 109.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.23; (P) 112.45; (R1) 112.89; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. The pull back from 114.54 could have completed at 111.62 already. Further rise would be seen for retesting 114.54 high. On the downside, below 112.01, however, will likely resume the corrective fall from 114.54 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support in that case.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.29; (P) 144.60; (R1) 145.14; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as consolidation continues. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.34; (P) 110.50; (R1) 110.79; More…

USD/JPY drops notably in early US session but stays above 109.52 support. Intraday bias remains neutral fist. Risk stays mildly on the downside with 111.65 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 109.52, and sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 109.85) will suggest that it’s at least correcting the rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest long term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall back towards 102.58 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.81; (P) 114.13; (R1) 114.31; More…

USD/JPY failed to break through 114.69 high and reversed. Consolidation from there is extending with another falling leg. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Break of 113.24 will bring deeper pull back, but downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.93; (P) 150.09; (R1) 150.30; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 150.87 and intraday bias stays neutral. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level next. However, firm break of 148.79 will turn bias to the downside for 145.88 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption, and next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.52; (P) 105.86; (R1) 106.08; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 105.20 minor support intact. Corrective decline from 111.71 could have completed with three waves down to 104.18, just missed 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. Break of 106.47 will target 108.16 resistance and above. However, break of 105.20 minor support will turn focus back to 104.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.