Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.42; (P) 112.68; (R1) 113.13; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 127.79 temporary top confirms rise resumption and intraday bias is back on the upside. The rally from 104.62 is expected to target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish medium term view. On the downside, break of 112.21 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.38; (P) 161.59; (R1) 161.93; More…

USD/JPY declines sharply in early US session and breaks 160.25 support decisively. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 161.49 might already be correcting the whole five-wave rally from 140.25. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 157.62) will affirm this bearish case. Next target will be 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 163.65. Meanwhile, rise will now stay on the downside as long as 160.25 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94. However, sustained break of 154.53 will raise the chance of larger scale correction and target 140.25/151.89 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.94; (P) 108.11; (R1) 108.40; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 108.37 will extend the rebound from 106.78 with another rise, possibly through 108.99 resistance. On the downside, break of 107.21 will resume the fall from 108.99 to 106.78 low. Decisive break there will resume whole decline from 112.40.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.22; (P) 148.73; (R1) 149.02; More…

USD/JPY recovers after breaching 148.24 minor support and intraday bias stays neutral. Consolidation from 150.15 is still extending. On the downside, below 148.24 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg through 147.28. But there is no confirmation of bearish trend reversal before firm break of 144.43 support. Another rally remains mildly in favor through 150.15 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.14; (P) 110.42; (R1) 110.90; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 110.95 minor resistance will argue that the pull back from 112.13 has completed at 109.17. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 112.13. On the downside, below 109.71 will resume the fall from 112.13 to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28. Break of 109.28 will target 61.8% retracement at 107.53 next.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.91), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we’ll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.22; (P) 106.89; (R1) 107.28; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Break of 61.8% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 105.83 will target 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 106.68 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.42; (P) 110.00; (R1) 110.34; More….

USD/JPY’s rise from 108.12 resumes after brief retreat as reaches as high as 110.62 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 111.58 support turned resistance. Considering bullish convergence in 4 hour MACD, sustained break of 111.58 will argue that fall from 118.65 is merely a corrective move and has completed. Outlook will then be turned bullish for 115.49 resistance and above. Meanwhile, below 109.58 minor support will turn bias to the downside and extend the whole decline from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.89; (P) 146.26; (R1) 146.79; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76 will pave the way to retest 151.93 high. For now, outlook will stays cautiously bullish as long as 144.52 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.29; (P) 156.95; (R1) 157.84; More…

USD/JPY rebounded after dipping to 155.36 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Deeper decline is still expected as long as 158.85 resistance holds. Below 155.36 will extend the fall from 161.94, as a correction to rally from 140.25, to 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 163.65. On the upside, above 158.85 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.89 resistance turned support holds, long term up trend could still continue through 161.94 at a later stage. Next target will depend on the depth of the current correction from 161.94. However, sustained break of 151.89 will argue that larger scale correction or trend reversal is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.53; (P) 110.81; (R1) 111.26; More…

USD/JPY rebounds notably in early US session but it’s staying in range of 110.25/111.23, intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 111.23 will firstly confirm resumption of whole rebound from 104.69. Secondly, that will indicate strong support from 55 day EMA, and likely firm break of 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 too. In that case, further rise should be seen back to 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 110.25 minor support will suggest rejection by 110.77. And in that case, the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it’s struggle to get rid of 55 day EMA completely. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.97; (P) 111.20; (R1) 111.60; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 109.71 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 112.13 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 104.69 to 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, below 110.71 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 109.71 and possibly further to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.80), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we’ll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 109.76 resumed last week to as high as 112.16. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 100% projection of 109.76 to 111.82 from 110.37 at 112.43 first. Break will target a test on 113.17 high. On the downside, break of 111.10 minor support is needed to signal completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook is cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.69; (P) 107.88; (R1) 108.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is neutral for the moment. But with 108.37 resistance intact, further fall is expected. Break of 107.21 will target 106.78 low. Decisive break there will resume whole decline from 112.40 and target 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 108.37 will extend the correction from 106.78 with another rise, possibly through 108.99 resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.33; (P) 151.55; (R1) 151.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.35). Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.45; (P) 110.18; (R1) 110.64; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28. Prior break of 110.35 support argues that rebound from 104.69 is completed at 112.13 already. Break of 109.28 will target 61.8% retracement at 107.53 next. On the upside, break of 110.95 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 112.13 instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.91), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we’ll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.29; (P) 156.95; (R1) 157.84; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside for the moment. Current decline is seen as correcting whole rally from 140.25. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 163.65. On the upside, above 158.85 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.89 resistance turned support holds, long term up trend could still continue through 161.94 at a later stage. Next target will depend on the depth of the current correction from 161.94. However, sustained break of 151.89 will argue that larger scale correction or trend reversal is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.18; (P) 103.25; (R1) 103.32; More..

Break of 102.87 suggests resumption of down trend from 111.71. USD/JPY should target a test on 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 103.89 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.69; (P) 146.30; (R1) 148.31; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral an further decline is expected with 150.88 resistance intact. On the downside, below 144.04 minor support will bring retest of 141.67 first. Break there will resume the fall from 161.94 to 140.25 support next.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 149.98) argue that fall from 161.94 medium term is correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26, which is close to 140.25 support. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 149.83) holds. Nevertheless, firm break of 55 W EMA will suggest that the range for medium term corrective pattern is already set.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.01; (P) 106.23; (R1) 106.63; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 106.73 resistances intact, larger decline is still in favor to continue. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.17) and above.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 109.31 resistance is needed to the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.79; (P) 109.11; (R1) 109.34; More….

The strong rebound and break of 110.10 resistance indicates short term bottoming at 108.12, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 111.58 support turned resistance. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 118.65 is merely a corrective move and has completed. Outlook will then be turned bullish for 115.49 resistance and above. Meanwhile, below 108.87 minor support will turn bias to the downside and extend the whole decline from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.