Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.90; (P) 111.07; (R1) 111.30; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s still bounded in range of 110.37/111.82. On the upside, break of 111.73 minor resistance will resume the rebound from 109.76. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 113.17 high. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 104.62. On the downside, below 110.37 will bring deeper fall. But strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.16; (P) 107.66; (R1) 107.96; More...

USD/JPY recovers mildly after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA, but stays below 108.16 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 106.79 support holds. Above 108.16 will target 109.85 resistance first. Break will argue that larger rebound from 101.18 might be resuming to 112.22 key resistance. On the downside, below 106.79 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 106.07 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.35; (P) 106.53; (R1) 106.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 105.04 is still in progress. Near term outlook remains bearish with 107.09 minor resistance intact, and further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.75).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.56; (P) 113.85; (R1) 114.24; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 114.69 and Intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. Break of 113.24 will bring deeper pull back, but downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.84; (P) 115.21; (R1) 115.50; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 115.68 extends lower today but it stays above 114.46 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rally is in favor. . On the upside, break of 115.68 will target 116.34 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 114.46 will extend the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another falling leg through 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.07) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.34; (P) 137.05; (R1) 138.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 134.73 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.52; (P) 104.90; (R1) 105.13; More...

USD/JPY’s decline resumes after brief consolidation and hits as low as 104.18. Intraday bias is back on the downside with focus on 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. Firm break there will extend recent fall to 138.2% projection at 101.93 next. On the upside, though, above 105.29 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.05; (P) 115.37; (R1) 115.60; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 116.34 could extend further. But downside of retreat should be contained well well above 114.26 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.83; (P) 136.37; (R1) 137.13; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 137.84 resistance will revive the case of short term bottoming at 133.61, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 140.89). However, break of 133.61 will resume the decline form 151.93 through 133.07 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.71) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

USD/JPY rebounded after hitting 110.18 last week, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. But such rebound faced strong resistance from 4 hour 55 EMA and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 111.47 will affirm the case that correction from 114.73 could have completed with three waves down to 110.18. Intraday bias should then be turned back to the upside for 113.38 resistance for confirmation. However, below 110.18 will extend the correction lower. But we’d again look for bottoming signal in next fall.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.23; (P) 107.66; (R1) 108.30; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 106.75 support should confirm completion of rebound from 101.18, after failing 112.22 key resistance. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low. On the upside, above 109.70 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 111.71. Decisive break of 112.22 carry larger bullish implication and target 114.54 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.18; (P) 110.40; (R1) 110.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. Corrective recovery from 109.02 should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 110.82) to bring another fall. On the downside, below 109.81 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 109.02. Break there will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. However, sustained trading above 55 day EMA will indicate completion of the fall from 112.40 and bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.52; (P) 149.75; (R1) 149.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation pattern from 150.15 could extend further. On the downside, below 148.94 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg towards 147.28. On the upside, firm break of 150.15 will resume larger up trend to test 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.37; (P) 154.33; (R1) 155.60; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as fall from 160.20 is in progress. As a correction to rise from 146.47, deeper decline would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 152.25), and possibly further to 61.8% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 151.71. But strong support should be seen from 150.87 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 156.28 will argue that the pull back has completed and the range is set for sideway consolidations.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.41; (P) 134.99; (R1) 135.62; More…

USD/JPY is losing some upside momentum but retreat is so far shallow. Intraday bias stays on the upside and rise from 130.38 should target a test on 139.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, to bring another fall, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 139.37. On the downside, below 132.50 minor support will resume the fall from 139.37 towards 126.35 structural support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.10; (P) 109.42; (R1) 109.71; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. The correction from 111.39 could extend. But we’d expect support from 108.82 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 108.80) to bring rebound. On the upside, above 110.32 minor resistance will argue that the pull back is completed. And, in that case, retest of 111.39 high should be seen. However, firm break of 108.82 will dampen our view and bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 107.20 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as108.82 support holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above. However, sustained break of 108.82 will dampen the bullish outlook and revive the case of a break of 104.62 low before bottoming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.75; (P) 107.79; (R1) 107.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. For now, outlook stays bearish as long as 108.80 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 107.53 will bring retest of 106.78 low. Break there will extend recent fall from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 108.80 will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. In this case, stronger rise should be seen back to 110.67 resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.37; (P) 111.65; (R1) 112.09; More….

USD/JPY rises to as high as 112.30 so far as the rebound from 108.12 resumes. The current development indicates that corrective decline from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.12. Further rally would be seen to 115.49 resistance first. Break will target 118.65 high. On the downside, break of 110.86 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.30; (P) 110.55; (R1) 110.72; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. We’re holding on to the view that rebound from 108.10 could have completed already. On the downside, break of 110.27 will firm this case and turn bias to the downside for 109.36 support. Break there will confirm that corrective pattern from 111.39 has started the third leg for 108.10 support. In that case, we’d expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. On the upside, above 111.13 will bring retest of 111.39 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.28; (P) 148.34; (R1) 149.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from 140.25. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 144.30 and below. Nevertheless, strong support from 146.81, followed by break of 148.29 minor resistance resistance, will argue that fall from 150.87 is merely a correction, which has completed already.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up as fall from 150.87 accelerates lower. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 148.45) will open up the case that corrective pattern from 151.89 (2023 high) is extending, with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 140.25 support or below. Nevertheless, strong bounce from 55 D EMA will retain near term bullishness for at least another take on 151.89.