Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.23; (P) 105.52; (R1) 105.75; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first with focus now on 105.10 support. Break will turn bias to the downside for retesting 104.18. Further break there will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case that pull back from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.28; (P) 110.93; (R1) 112.02; More..

USD/JPY’s rally extends to as high as 112.19 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Next target is 112.40 resistance and decisive break there will affirm medium term bullishness. On the downside, below 111.11 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 110.28 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.64; (P) 104.85; (R1) 105.04; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 104.34 will will target 104.00 low first. Break will resume larger decline from 111.71. Nevertheless, sustained break of 105.03 support turned resistance will neutralize immediate near term bearishness. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 106.10 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.55; (P) 108.81; (R1) 109.12; More…

A temporary low is in place at 108.49 with today’s recovery. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, below 108.49 will target 107.77 support first. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 104.69 at 110.00. Then, further decline would be seen back to retest 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 110.00 will extend the rebound. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.82) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

USD/JPY edged lower to 106.78 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 108.80 resistance holds, further decline is in favor. Break of 106.78 will resume the fall from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. On the upside, however, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 108.80 will confirm short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 110.67 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.32; (P) 110.56; (R1) 110.90; More…

Focus is back on 110.95 high as choppy rise from 107.47 resumed. Decisive break there will resume larger rise from 102.58 for 111.71 key resistance. On the downside, break of 109.70 support will extend the consolidation pattern from 110.95 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. On the upside, decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 107.47 support would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.48; (P) 109.11; (R1) 109.52; More..

USD/JPY’s fall accelerates to as low as 104.69 before recovering ahead of 104.62 low. For now, intraday bias remains on the downside despite the current recovery. Decisive break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 109.46 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even though the current recovery might extend.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as another medium term down leg, targeting 98.97/104.62 support zone. For now, we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside to bring rebound.

Despite much volatility last week, USD/JPY’s fall from 151.89 is still in progress. But as a temporary low was formed at 140.94, initial bias is neutral this week first for consolidations. Upside should be limited well below 146.58 resistance to bring another decline. Break of 140.94 will target next fibonacci level at 136.63.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 146.58 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds (2015 high), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to continue through 151.93 (2022 high) at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.63; (P) 103.03; (R1) 103.48; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. But outlook stays bearish with 103.89 resistance intact. ON the downside, break of 102.58 will extend the down trend from 111.17 to retest 101.18 low. However, firm break of 103.89 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.29; (P) 104.78; (R1) 105.05; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and focus remains on on 104.39 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will indicate that rebound from 102.58 has completed at 105.76. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 103.31 support first. Though, rebound from current level, followed by break of 105.76 will target 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.31).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.23; (P) 125.78; (R1) 126.20; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment but further rise is expected with 124.75 support holds. On the upside, sustained break of 125.85 will carry larger bullish implication and target 130.04 long term projection level next. On the downside, break of 124.75 minor support will turn bias to the downside for pull back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 124.28) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 121.27 extended higher last week but upside was capped below 125.09 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 125.09 will resume larger up trend from 102.58. Further break of 125.85 long term resistance will pave the way to 130.04 long term projection level. Consolidation from 125.09 could still extend with another falling leg. But overall outlook will remain bullish as long as 121.17 support holds.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern that might have completed at 98.97 already. Firm break of 125.85 will target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04. Next is 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2239; (P) 1.2296 (R1) 1.2342; More….

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook as focus remains on 1.2214 support. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 1.2154 first. Firm break there will confirm and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 next. On the upside, break of 1.2413 will turn focus back to 1.2555 high instead.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.85; (P) 146.48; (R1) 147.07; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rally will remain mildly in favor as long as 145.97 resistance turned support holds. Above 148.79 will resume the rebound from 140.25 to retest 151.89/93 key resistance zone. However, firm break of 145.97 will turn bias to the downside for deeper fall towards 140.25.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 142.49) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.29; (P) 106.66; (R1) 107.18; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as the consolidation from 105.24 is still in progress. Note again that bullish convergence condition is seen in 4 hour MACD. On the upside, decisive break 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next. But before that, another decline is still mildly in favor. Break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.69; (P) 105.96; (R1) 106.13; More..

A temporary top is formed at 106.21 with current retreat and intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first. Further rise is expected as long as 140.40 support holds. Rise from 102.58 is seen as at least correcting the down trend from 111.71 to 102.58, with prospect of being an up trend of its own. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 108.22.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.23).

USD/JPY edged higher to 108.93 last week but lost momentum and formed a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Deeper retreat could be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 108.23) and below. But downside should be contained well above 106.48 support to bring another rise. On the upside, above 108.93 will target 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.63; (P) 131.23; (R1) 132.12; More…

USD/JPY recovered after just brief breach of 4 hour 55 EMA and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, below 130.33 will bring deeper decline to retest 127.20 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 151.93. On the upside, above 132.89 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64.

In the bigger picture, prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.70; (P) 111.92; (R1) 112.07; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress for 100% projection of 109.76 to 111.82 from 110.37 at 112.43 first. Break will target a test on 113.17 high. On the downside, break of 111.65 will turn intraday bias neutral again. But overall, further rise is expected as long as 110.37 support holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

USD/JPY edged higher to 104.39 last week but failed to break through falling channel resistance, and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 104.39 and sustained trading above the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 103.51 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.