Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.79; (P) 108.21; (R1) 108.50; More…

USD/JPY drops to as low as 107.46 so far today. Break of 107.81 indicates resumption of fall from 112.40. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support. On the upside, break of 108.80 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.35; (P) 111.56; (R1) 111.74; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral, as range trading continues, inside 110.68/111.82. On the upside, break of 111.82 will reaffirm the case that correction from 113.17 has completed at 109.76. And in that case, further rise should be seen back to retest 113.17 high. On the downside, below 110.68 will bring another fall. But still, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.02; (P) 111.83; (R1) 112.26; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly after hitting as long as 110.74. It then recovers mildly on oversold condition in 4 hour RSI. But as upside is limited below 111.50 minor resistance. intraday bias remains on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 110.45) and below. However, as fall from 113.17 is seen as a correction to rise from 104.62, downside, should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.50 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 113.17 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more consolidation would be seen with risk of another fall.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.29; (P) 110.83; (R1) 111.57; More….

USD/JPY is bounded in range of 110.10/112.19 and intraday bias remains neutral first. The pair is staying in the near term falling channel and the correction from 118.65 could extend lower. Below 110.10 will turn intraday bias to the downside for 50% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 108.81. On the upside, however, break of 112.19 resistance will indicate short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.15) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.49; (P) 114.71; (R1) 115.10; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 112.52 accelerates to as high as 114.94 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for retesting 115.51 high first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 114.30 will turn bias to the downside, and extend the corrective pattern from 115.51 with another falling leg back to 112.52 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.63; (P) 131.23; (R1) 132.12; More…

USD/JPY spiked through 130.33 minor support but quickly recovered. For now, deeper fall is in favor as long as 131.88 minor resistance holds. Corrective rebound from 127.20 could have completed with three waves up to 132.89. Retest of 127.20 would be seen next and decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 151.93. On the upside, above 131.88 will likely resume the rebound through 132.89 to 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64.

In the bigger picture, prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

USD/JPY resumed the decline from 111.71 last week and hit 102.87. But a temporary low was formed quickly. Initial bias in neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 102.87 will resume the down trend for retesting 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 104.57 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.03; (P) 107.28; (R1) 107.54; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break 106.63 will target 106.07. Break there will extend the whole pattern from 111.71 and target 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, however, break of 108.16 will resume the rebound from 106.07 and target 109.85 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.61; (P) 107.70; (R1) 107.81; More..

USD/JPY drew support from 4 hour 55 EMA and recovers but stays below 108.08 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. We’re still favoring the case that corrective fall from 111.71 has already completed at 105.98. Further rise should be seen and break of 108.08 will turn bias to the upside for 109.38 resistance. However, break of 106.74 support will dampen our bullish view and turn bias to the downside for 105.98 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.98; (P) 135.92; (R1) 137.70; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral first. On the upside, break of 137.66 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, ahead of 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 142.24 resistance first. However, before, another decline could still be seen to 133.07 medium term fibonacci level or further to 55 week EMA.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 108.10 last week but failed to sustain below 55 day EMA and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week with focus on 109.82 minor resistance. Break there will indicate completion of the pull back from 113.39. And that will revive the bullish case that rise from 104.62 is still in progress. Retest of 111.39 should be seen first. On the downside, though, break of 108.10 will extend the fall from 108.10 to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point w;’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this week and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD?JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 108.10 extended higher last week even though it lost some upside momentum. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside for 113.39 resistance. Break there will resume larger rebound from 104.62 and target 114.73 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 109.91 will turn bias to the downside and bring another fall towards 108.10 to extend the corrective pattern from 111.39.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.47; (P) 135.83; (R1) 136.29; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 135.24 support will indicate short term topping, after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 134.05) first. Sustained break of 55 day EMA will indicate that whole rebound from 127.20 has completed. On the upside, however, sustained break of 136.64 will indicate that fall from 151.93 has completed, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 142.48.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Sustained break there will indicate that price actions from 151.93 medium term are merely a corrective pattern. Such development will maintain long term bullishness. Rejection by 136.64 will, on the other hand, extend the fall from 151.93 to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.07; (P) 103.34; (R1) 103.57; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. Outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well inside falling channel from 111.71. Break of 102.87 will bring deeper fall to retest 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 104.57 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.37; (P) 111.65; (R1) 112.09; More….

USD/JPY rises to as high as 112.30 so far as the rebound from 108.12 resumes. The current development indicates that corrective decline from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.12. Further rally would be seen to 115.49 resistance first. Break will target 118.65 high. On the downside, break of 110.86 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.33; (P) 110.89; (R1) 111.25; More….

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 110.10/112.19 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 110.10 will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65 and target 50% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 108.81. On the upside, however, break of 112.19 resistance will indicate short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.16) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.42; (P) 109.52; (R1) 109.61; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation form 109.72 might extend further. As long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.93; (P) 110.08; (R1) 110.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.27; (P) 111.56; (R1) 111.98; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point as it’s staying in range of 110.35/112.13. As long as 110.35 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish and rise from 104.69 is expected to resume. On the upside, break of 112.13 will target 114.54 resistance next. However, firm break of 110.35 should confirm near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 108.49 support and below.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.58; (P) 105.82; (R1) 106.16; More...

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 106.47 and intraday bias remains neutral. The bullish case is still in favor for now. That is, corrective fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18, after missing 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. On the upside, above 106.47 will target 108.16 resistance next. Nevertheless, break of 104.18 will extend the whole decline from 111.71 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.