USD/JPY’s rebound from 151.86 resumed last week by breaking through 156.78 resistance. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week for 100% projection of 151.86 to 156.78 from 153.59 at 158.51. On the downside, below 155.83 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 153.69 will target 151.86 and below as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

In the long term picture, as long as 140.25 support holds, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 172.08.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.09; (P) 117.84; (R1) 118.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 118.65 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of whole rise from 98.97. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 125.85 high. We’d be cautious on topping at 125.85 on first attempt. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 114.76 support and bring rally resumption finally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the corrective is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.53; (P) 114.04; (R1) 114.45; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 114.54 temporary top. As long as 113.51 support holds, further rise is still expected. On the upside, decisive break of 114.73 will confirm larger bullish case. Next target will be 118.65 resistance. Nonetheless, break of 113.51 will indicate short term topping and bring lengthier consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.06; (P) 157.26; (R1) 159.53; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point as consolidation from 160.20 short term top is extending. Strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 154.95 to bring recovery. But break of 160.20 is not envisaged for now. However, firm break of 154.95 will turn bias to the downside for deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 151.83).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.06; (P) 135.18; (R1) 136.09; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 136.70 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained above 131.48 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.14; (P) 148.63; (R1) 149.01; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 150.15 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 147.28 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back. But there is no confirmation of bearish trend reversal before firm break of 144.43 support. Another rally remains mildly in favor through 150.15 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.27; (P) 147.32; (R1) 148.97; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged as consolidation from 151.39 is continuing. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 149.69 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back towards 151.93 high. But upside should be limited there to continue the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.99; (P) 106.61; (R1) 107.14; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Current fall is part of the corrective pattern from 111.71, and should target 105.98 support and below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 107.22 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support could extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.69; (P) 114.00; (R1) 114.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of 114.69 will resume larger up trend for 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. In case the consolidation pattern from 114.69 extends with another fall, we’d continue to expect downside to be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.73; (P) 144.30; (R1) 144.69; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 145.89 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.82; (P) 131.77; (R1) 133.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish as long as 134.49 resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 148.44 to 133.61 from 138.16 at 128.99 could trigger downside acceleration to 100% projection at 123.33. Nevertheless, break of 134.49 will turn bias to the upside for 138.16 resistance intact.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.65) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 137.54) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.77; (P) 107.94; (R1) 108.08; More…

USD/JPY is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But outlook remains unchanged for now. Corrective rebound from 107.54 should have completed at 108.99, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Further fall should be seen and break of 107.53 support will likely send USD/JPY through 106.78 to resume the decline from 112.40. This is will remain the preferred case as long as 108.99 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.99; (P) 110.41; (R1) 110.64; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Focus stays on 110.95 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 111.71 key resistance next. However, break of 109.79 support will suggest rejection by 110.95. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 109.17 support. Break there will extend the consolidation pattern from 110.95 with another falling leg, targeting 107.47 support again.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.58; (P) 147.12; (R1) 147.78; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues and breaks 147.68 long term resistance. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 149.25 projection level, and possibly to 150 psychological level. On the downside, break of 146.43 minor support will now suggest short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high), and possibly to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.50; (P) 134.78; (R1) 135.19; More…

Further rise is still in favor in USD/JPY with 133.91 minor support intact. But strong resistance could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 to complete the corrective rebound from 127.20. On the downside, break of 133.91 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 129.79/132,89 support zone.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.54) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.42; (P) 112.68; (R1) 113.13; More…

Near term outlook in USD/JPY stays bullish with 112.21 support intact. Current rally from 104.62 should target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish medium term view. On the downside, break of 112.21 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.84; (P) 110.20; (R1) 110.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it drew support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 and recovered. At this point, we’d still expect strong support around 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will turn bias back to the the upside for retesting 113.17 first. However, sustained break of 109.90 will put 109.36 key support level in focus. Break of 109.36 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.49; (P) 106.62; (R1) 107.26; More..

USD/JPY’s fall from 112.22 extends to as low as 105.75 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 104.45 low. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 118.65. On the upside, break of 107.74 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current steep decline and rejection by 112.40 resistance mixes up the medium term outlook again. Sustained break of 108.30 support will argue that larger fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) hasn’t completed. Further fall could be seen through 104.45 low to 98.97 key support (2016 low). Nevertheless, break of 112.40 resistance will revive the case of bullish reversal and target 114.54 key resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.68; (P) 109.94; (R1) 110.13; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with today’s retreat, but another rise is in favor as long as 108.55 support holds. On the upside, above 110.19 will resume the rise from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 102.58 to 111.71 resistance next. On the downside, break of 108.55 will turn bias to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.89; (P) 115.13; (R1) 115.35; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as range trading continues. Overall, consolidation pattern from 116.34 is still extending. On the upside, break of 115.68 will resume the rebound from 113.46 to retest 116.34 high first. On the downside, break of 114.14 should extend the consolidation with another falling leg through 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.21) holds.