Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.63; (P) 123.81; (R1) 124.16; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bullish with 121.17 support intact and further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 125.09 will target 125.85 long term resistance. Firm break pave the way to 130.04 long term projection level. However, break of 121.17 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.73; (P) 144.30; (R1) 144.69; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 145.89 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.82; (P) 131.77; (R1) 133.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish as long as 134.49 resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 148.44 to 133.61 from 138.16 at 128.99 could trigger downside acceleration to 100% projection at 123.33. Nevertheless, break of 134.49 will turn bias to the upside for 138.16 resistance intact.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.65) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 137.54) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.77; (P) 107.94; (R1) 108.08; More…

USD/JPY is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But outlook remains unchanged for now. Corrective rebound from 107.54 should have completed at 108.99, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Further fall should be seen and break of 107.53 support will likely send USD/JPY through 106.78 to resume the decline from 112.40. This is will remain the preferred case as long as 108.99 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.99; (P) 110.41; (R1) 110.64; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Focus stays on 110.95 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 111.71 key resistance next. However, break of 109.79 support will suggest rejection by 110.95. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 109.17 support. Break there will extend the consolidation pattern from 110.95 with another falling leg, targeting 107.47 support again.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.58; (P) 147.12; (R1) 147.78; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues and breaks 147.68 long term resistance. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 149.25 projection level, and possibly to 150 psychological level. On the downside, break of 146.43 minor support will now suggest short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high), and possibly to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.50; (P) 134.78; (R1) 135.19; More…

Further rise is still in favor in USD/JPY with 133.91 minor support intact. But strong resistance could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 to complete the corrective rebound from 127.20. On the downside, break of 133.91 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 129.79/132,89 support zone.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.54) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.42; (P) 112.68; (R1) 113.13; More…

Near term outlook in USD/JPY stays bullish with 112.21 support intact. Current rally from 104.62 should target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish medium term view. On the downside, break of 112.21 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.84; (P) 110.20; (R1) 110.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it drew support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 and recovered. At this point, we’d still expect strong support around 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will turn bias back to the the upside for retesting 113.17 first. However, sustained break of 109.90 will put 109.36 key support level in focus. Break of 109.36 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.35; (P) 112.70; (R1) 113.27; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again as it failed to break through 113.43 resistance and retreats sharply today. On the upside, break of 113.43 will resume the rise from 107.31 and target 114.49 resistance. More importantly current development revives the case that correction from 118.65 has completed at 107.31. Decisive break of 114.49 will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 111.64 will mixed up the outlook again and turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidation above 105.54 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 108.27 resistance intact, deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.54 will extend the larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. However, break of 108.27 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.82; (P) 107.12; (R1) 107.45; More…

USD/JPY recovers further today but stays well below 108.80 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 106.78 temporary low will resume the fall from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.82; (R1) 111.74; More..

USD//JPY reaches as high as 111.36 so far as rise from 101.18 extends. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 112.22 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 106.75 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound. However, break of 112.22 will be a strong sign on medium term bullish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.07; (P) 107.23; (R1) 107.37; More...

USD/JPY’s break of 106.79 suggests that rebound from 106.07 has completed at 108.16. Also, the larger pattern from 111.71 is extending with another falling leg. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 105.98/106.07 support zone first. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, break of 107.24 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.62; (P) 143.16; (R1) 143.47; More…

USD/JPY is still staying in consolidation from 144.98 and intraday bias remains neutral. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.24; (P) 146.31; (R1) 146.94; More…

USD/JPY retreated after spiking higher to 147.36 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rally remains in favor as long as 144.52 support holds. Above 147.36 will resume the rise from 127.20 to retest 151.93 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 144.52 should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 142.86).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.10; (P) 136.45; (R1) 137.00; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, firm break of 134.73 will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD. Deeper fall would be seen through 55 day EMA to 126.35/131.34 support zone. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.02; (P) 147.21; (R1) 147.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 151.93 is still extending. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 149.69 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back towards 151.93 high. But upside should be limited there to continue the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.32; (P) 108.65; (R1) 108.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is neutral for the moment but risk stays on the downside with 109.68 resistance intact. Break of 107.47 will resume the decline from 110.95 to 100% projection of 110.95 to 107.47 from 109.68 at 106.20. However, break of 109.68 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

USD/JPY rebounded after defending 109.10 support last week, but stayed in familiar range. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 110.44 will turn bias back to the upside for 110.79, and then 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will argue that larger fall from 111.65 is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen to 108.71 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.