Daily Pivots: (S1) 100.88; (P) 102.74; (R1) 104.29; More..

A temporary low is in place at 101.18 in USD/JPY with today’s recovery. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 112.22 to 101.18 at 105.39. On the downside, break of 101.18 will resume larger down rend to next key support level at 98.97. Though, firm break of 105.39 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 108.00.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.98; (P) 134.20; (R1) 136.24; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 135.58 could extend. But further rally is expected as long as 131.34 support holds. On the upside, break of 135.58 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.25; (P) 110.98; (R1) 111.42; More…

USD/JPY’s fall accelerated to as low as 110.40 so far and focus is now on 110.35 support. Decisive break there will confirm that whole rebound from 104.69 has completed at 112.13. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28 next. On the upside, break of 111.15 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 112.13 high instead.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.53; (P) 109.78; (R1) 110.02; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first, for consolidation below 110.01 temporary top. At this point, further rise is expected as long 108.30 support holds. Above 108.30 will target 110.28 first. Break will resume larger rebound from 104.45 and target medium term channel resistance at 111.23.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.84; (P) 115.21; (R1) 115.50; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 115.68 temporary top. Further rally is expected with 114.46 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 115.68 will target 116.34 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, break of 114.46 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 113.46 support instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.07) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.78; (P) 107.29; (R1) 107.61; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly today but further decline should be seen with 107.79 minor resistance intact. As noted before, rebound from 104.45 should have completed at 108.47 already. Break of 106.68 will confirm this case and target retest of 104.45 low. On the upside, break of 107.79 will turn focus back to 108.47 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.61; (P) 148.85; (R1) 149.27; More…

USD/JPY continues to lose upside momentum but there is no sign of topping. Further rise is in favor to 61.8% projection of 130.38 to 140.33 from 145.89 at 149.91. Yet, beware that Japan might intervene again close to 150 psychological level. On the downside, break of 146.43 minor support will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is not clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 139.37 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.04; (P) 109.25; (R1) 109.52; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 109.53 is still in progress. Another fall cannot be ruled out as the consolidation extends. But downside should be contained by 107.77 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 109.53 will resume the rise from 104.62 and target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.60).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.17; (P) 111.40; (R1) 111.78; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat, and with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. But further rise is still expected with 110.41 support intact. On the upside, sustained break of 111.71 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.99; (P) 104.67; (R1) 105.18; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 104.00 support will resume larger decline from 111.71. Further fall could be seen towards 101.18 support. On the upside, above 105.34 will turn bias back to the upside for 106.10 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.71; (P) 133.16; (R1) 133.75; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Overall, corrective pattern from 139.37 will extend further. On the upside, above 135.57 will resume the rebound to retest 139.37 high. On the downside, below 131.72 will resume the fall from 139.37 through 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 122.70) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.62; (P) 111.10; (R1) 111.40; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as it’s bounded in range of 110.10/112.19. The pair is staying in the near term falling channel and the correction from 118.65 could extend lower. Below 110.10 will turn intraday bias to the downside for 50% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 108.81. On the upside, however, break of 112.19 resistance will indicate short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.15) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.36; (P) 160.82; (R1) 161.37; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 161.27. Downside of retreat should be contained by 158.71 support to bring another rally. Break of 161.27 will target 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.44; (P) 111.93; (R1) 112.38; More…

Breach of 111.54 suggests that fall from 114.49 is resuming. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper decline to 108.81 support. Break there will extend the whole correction from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.41 will turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.27; (P) 111.42; (R1) 111.65; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 109.71 is in progress for 112.13 resistance. Decisive break of 112.13 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.69 to 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 111.18 minor support will argue that rebound from 109.71 might be completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 109.71, and possibly further to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.19; (P) 147.51; (R1) 147.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat, and some consolidations could be seen. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 144.43 support holds. On the upside, above 147.88 will resume larger rally from 127.20, to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.00; (P) 132.50; (R1) 133.13; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside and current up trend is in progress for 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 next. On the downside, below 130.97 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral to bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.09; (P) 111.35; (R1) 111.65; More…

USD/JPY recovered ahead of 110.84 support and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, risks remain on the downside as long as 112.40 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 110.84 support will add to the case of bearish reversal and target 109.71 support and below. On the upside, firm break of 112.40 resistance will resume the rise from 104.69 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

USD/JPY edged lower to 111.58 last but recovered. Correction from 118.65 could have completed at 111.58, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside this week for 115.36 minor resistance. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 high next. In that case, the larger rally from 98.97 could be resuming.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.64; (P) 106.94; (R1) 107.16; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 106.07 support. Firm break there will extend the corrective pattern from 111.71 to 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, break of 107.54 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.