Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.84; (P) 137.34; (R1) 138.16; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 135.59 minor support indicates that recovery from 133.61 has completed much earlier than expected at 137.95. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 133.61, and then 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 137.95 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.71) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

USD/JPY rose to 110.32 last week but dropped sharply since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, with immediate focus on 109.32 support. Break there will argue that choppy rebound from 107.47 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.55 support, and then 107.47. On the upside, above 110.32 will resume the rebound to retest 110.95 high instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY dropped to 106.35 last week but recovered since then. Some support was seen from 61.8% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 106.41. Yet, the strength of the recovery was very limited. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 106.35 will target 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. Reactions from there could reveal whether fall from 111.71 is corrective or impulsive. On the upside, break of 108.04 resistance will suggest completion of the fall form 111.71 and target 109.38 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.26; (P) 149.84; (R1) 150.22; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 149.30 minor support will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 147.28 support holds, even in case of deep retreat. On the upside, above 150.76 will resume larger rally to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.75; (P) 107.34; (R1) 107.77; More...

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 106.75 support should confirm completion of rebound from 101.18, after failing 112.22 key resistance. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low. On the upside, above 109.70 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 111.71. Decisive break of 112.22 carry larger bullish implication and target 114.54 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.24; (P) 111.74; (R1) 112.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside at this point. A short term top was formed at 112.14 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper decline would be seen to 110.84 support first. Break will add to the case of reversal and target 109.71 support and below. On the upside, decisive break of 112.40 is needed to confirm resumption of rise from 104.69. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the downside.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.43; (P) 113.57; (R1) 113.83; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 113.96 so far. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally from 104.62 should target 114.73 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm larger bullish case. On the downside, below 113.31 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.57; (P) 146.87; (R1) 147.25; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from 140.25. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 144.30 and below. Nevertheless, strong support from 146.81, followed by break of 148.29 minor resistance resistance, will argue that fall from 150.87 is merely a correction, which has completed already. Retest of 150.87 should be seen next.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price action from 151.89 (2023 high) are correction to up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). The question is whether this correction has completed at 140.25, or extending with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. Sustained break of above mentioned 146.81 fibonacci level will favor the latter case. But even so, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 139.54.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.49; (P) 112.68; (R1) 113.02; More..

USD/JPY lost momentum after hitting 112.88 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Further rise cannot be ruled out yet. But based on the corrective structure, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 111.62 at 113.42. On the downside, below 111.94 minor support will turn bias to the downside to 111.62 low first. Break will resume the corrective fall from 114.54 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support in that case.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.35; (P) 131.50; (R1) 132.46; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 137.90 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28 will pave the way to retest 127.20 low next. On the upside, above 133.81 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.39; (P) 109.74; (R1) 110.11; More…

USD/JPY is corrective pattern from 111.39 is extending with the third leg. Deeper decline is in favor to 108.10 support and possibly below. But we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 110.89 will extend the rise from 108.10 towards 111.39 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.92; (P) 136.23; (R1) 136.55; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Rejection by this fibonacci level, followed by break of 134.04 support, will argue that such rebound from 127.20 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside. However, sustained trading above 136.64 will indicate that fall from 151.93 has completed, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 142.48.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Sustained break there will indicate that price actions from 151.93 medium term are merely a corrective pattern. Such development will maintain long term bullishness. Rejection by 136.64 will, on the downside, extend the fall from 151.93 to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 at a later stage.

USD/JPY’s rally from 127.20 continued last week but retreated after hitting 145.06. Upside momentum was also diminishing as seen in 4 H MACD. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Break of 55 4H EMA (now at 143.28) could trigger deeper correction. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 140.90 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 145.06 will resume larger rise to 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 138.75 support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 138.75 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.78; (P) 111.07; (R1) 111.33; More…

USD/JPY rebounds strongly after dipping to 110.76 but stays below 111.39 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in factor as long as 110.34 minor support holds. On the upside, firm break of 111.39 will resume whole rally from 104.62 low. That will also add credence to the case of medium term reversal and target 114.73 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, break of 110.34 will indicate near term reversal. And, the consolidation pattern from 111.39 would then start the third leg for 108.10 again before completion.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.55; (P) 110.73; (R1) 110.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading from 111.13 is still in progress. On the downside, break of 110.00 resistance turned support will suggest rejection by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 and the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 111.13 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it couldn’t sustain above 55 day EMA yet. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.02; (P) 110.36; (R1) 110.81; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 107.31 extended overnight and breached 110.66 resistance. But it cannot sustain above this level yet. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Below 109.29 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.31. Break of 107.31 will extend the whole fall from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 first. We’d look for support from there to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 110.66 will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 114.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is now seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.24; (P) 146.31; (R1) 146.94; More…

USD/JPY retreated after spiking higher to 147.36 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rally remains in favor as long as 144.52 support holds. Above 147.36 will resume the rise from 127.20 to retest 151.93 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 144.52 should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 142.86).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.01; (P) 134.31; (R1) 135.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 135.58 is extending. Further rally is expected as long as 131.34 resistance turned support holds. Above 135.58 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29. However, firm break of 131.34 will bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 128.36).

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

USD/JPY dropped to 106.92 last week but recovered ahead of 106.91 support. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and further fall is mildly in favor. On the downside, break of 106.91 will extend the decline from 111.71 to 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 109.38 will suggest that fall from 111.71 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.37; (P) 109.48; (R1) 109.58; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 109.72 and intraday bias remains neutral. More sideway trading could be seen. But as long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.