Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.51; (P) 110.71; (R1) 110.87; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range below 111.13 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 110.00 resistance turned support will suggest rejection by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 and the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 111.13 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it’s struggle to get rid of 55 day EMA completely. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.57; (P) 154.71; (R1) 154.98; More…

Intraday bias is mildly on the upside in USD/JPY with breach of 154.77 resistance. Larger up trend is extending. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break of 153.58 support will turn bias to the downside, for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 151.10).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.42; (P) 108.58; (R1) 108.68; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 107.81 and intraday bias stays neutral. Outlook is unchanged that upside of recovery should be limited by 109.02 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support. However, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.57; (P) 130.34; (R1) 130.96; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 134.34).

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.01; (P) 115.35; (R1) 115.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. But further rise is expected as long as 114.46 minor support holds. Above 115.68 will target 116.34 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, break of 114.46 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 113.46 support instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.07) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.21; (P) 129.31; (R1) 130.07; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 resistance should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 133.75) and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.03; (P) 158.24; (R1) 159.12; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 is seen as correcting the whole five-wave rally from 140.25. Deeper decline is in favor and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 157.67) will affirm this bearish case. Next target will be 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 163.65. Nevertheless, break of 159.44 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.89 resistance turned support holds, long term up trend could still continue through 161.94 at a later stage. Next target will depend on the depth of the current correction from 161.94. However, sustained break of 151.89 will argue that larger scale correction or trend reversal is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.23; (P) 110.52; (R1) 110.72; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 110.79 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged that corrective fall from 111.65 should have completed with three waves down to 108.71. Another rise is in favor with 110.01 support intact. Break of 110.79 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 111.65 high. However, break of 110.01 will dampen this bullish view, and turn bias to the downside for 108.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.60; (P) 106.14; (R1) 106.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 105.52 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 109.31 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 105.52 will target 104.69 low next.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.49; (P) 139.04; (R1) 139.71; More…

Breach of 137.66 support suggests that fall from 151.93 is resuming. Intraday bias in now on the downside for 100% projection of 146.78 to 137.66 from 142.24 at 133.12, which is close to 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. For now, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 142.24 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.22).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.12; (P) 113.56; (R1) 114.35; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 113.65 minor resistance suggests that corrective pull back from 114.69 is complete at 112.71. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 114.69 first. Sustained break there will resume larger up trend for 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. On the downside, in case of another fall, we’d continue to expect downside to be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.74; (P) 113.93; (R1) 114.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 114.05 temporary top. Some consolidations would be seen but downside should be contained above 112.55 support to bring another rally. Above 114.05 will target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm larger bullish case. Next target will be 118.65 resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.96; (P) 132.26; (R1) 132.92; More…

USD/JPY’s decline from 139.37 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Further fall would be seen towards 126.35 support. But strong support is expected above there, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, above 132.49 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first, and bring some consolidations.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 139.37, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Fall from there could be correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.09; (P) 110.38; (R1) 110.80; More…

USD/JPY rises further today but it’s still staying below 110.89 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 110.89 will resume the rise from 108.10 and target 111.39. Firm break there will resume the rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 key resistance. On the downside, below 109.36 will extend the consolidation from 111.39 with another decline. But we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.44; (P) 109.62; (R1) 109.82; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. With 109.14 minor support intact, further rise is still mildly in favor. Rebound from 104.69 could target 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. We’d look for topping signal above there. On the downside, break of 109.14 minor support will be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.38; (P) 108.67; (R1) 108.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. As long as 107.93 minor support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 108.99 will resume the rebound from 106.78 for 100% projection of 106.78 to 108.99 from 107.21 at 109.42 and then 161.8% projection at 110.78. On the downside, below 107.93 minor support will turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.62; (P) 108.88; (R1) 109.14; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 109.35 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 108.33 minor support intact, the consolidation should be brief. On the upside, break of 109.35 will resume the larger rise from 102.58 long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. However, on the downside, break of 108.33 will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.53; (P) 109.78; (R1) 110.02; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 110.01 is in progress. At this point, further rise is expected as long 108.30 support holds. Above 108.30 will target 110.28 first. Break will resume larger rebound from 104.45 and target medium term channel resistance at 111.23.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.81; (P) 110.03; (R1) 110.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and risk stays on the downside with 111.65 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 109.52, and sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 109.78) will suggests that it’s at least correcting the rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest long term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall back towards 102.58 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.54; (P) 110.88; (R1) 111.27; More…

USD/JPY dips notably today but stays in range of 110.18/111.47. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 111.47 will affirm the case that correction from 114.73 is finished with three waves down to 110.18. Intraday bias should then be turned back to the upside for 113.38 resistance for confirmation. However, below 110.18 will extend the correction lower. But we’d again look for bottoming signal in next fall.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.