Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.46; (P) 132.17; (R1) 133.59; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and with 132.99 resistance intact, outlook stays bearish. On the downside, break of 129.62 will target a test on 127.20 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 151.93. However, firm break of 132.99 will argue that fall from 137.90 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 137.90.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is still in progress. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.62; (P) 109.98; (R1) 110.42; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 114.49 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 108.81 support. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, break of 111.04 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.58; (P) 111.90; (R1) 112.26; More…

A temporary low is in place at 111.54 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidation could be seen but another fall is expected as long as 112.85 resistance holds. Below 111.54 will target 108.81 low. Break there will extend the whole correction from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.85 will turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.73; (P) 157.50; (R1) 158.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. Further rally would remain in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high. But upside should be limited there, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 160.20 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 150.25 only. Another rally is still expected at a later stage through 160.02 to resume the larger up trend. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.29; (P) 109.62; (R1) 109.82; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly in early US session but stays well inside range of 109.05 and 110.58. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 109.05 will resume the decline from 111.65. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18. On the upside, break of 110.58 will resume the rebound from 109.05, for retesting 111.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.50; (P) 134.78; (R1) 135.19; More…

Further rise is still in favor in USD/JPY with 133.91 minor support intact. But strong resistance could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 to complete the corrective rebound from 127.20. On the downside, break of 133.91 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 129.79/132,89 support zone.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.54) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.36; (P) 113.65; (R1) 114.00; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.45; (P) 103.80; (R1) 103.99; More..

USD/JPY’s decline is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 103.17 support. Firm break there will resume whole down trend from 111.71. Next target is 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 104.57 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of stronger recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.13; (P) 110.41; (R1) 111.70; More..

Prior break of 110.28 resistance turned support raised the chance of near term bearish reversal. Further decline remains in favor in USD/JPY with 111.04 minor resistance intact, towards 108.30 support. Decisive break there will indicate completion of whole rise from 104.45 and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, above 111.04 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 112.22/40 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 108.30 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.99; (P) 106.14; (R1) 106.30; More...

Sideway trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case that pull back fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest 104.18 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.35; (P) 114.04; (R1) 114.39; More…

USD/JPY failed to sustain above 114.49 key resistance and retreated. Intraday bias is turned neutral again. As long as 112.95 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish and further rally is in favor. Sustained trading above 114.49 will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 112.95 support will now indicate rejection from 114.49 and turn bias to the downside for 111.64 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

USD/JPY edged higher to 109.22 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Consolidation should be relatively brief as long as 108.08 minor support holds. Break of 109.22 will resume the up trend from 102.58 to long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. Break of 108.08 will bring deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.24; (P) 113.48; (R1) 113.88; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 112.94 minor support. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 111.37. And, in that case, consolidation from 114.54 would start the third leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 111.37 support. On the upside, in case of another rally, due to loss of upside momentum, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 114.54/73 zone to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.77; (P) 113.53; (R1) 114.00; More…

The breach of 113.24 minor support dampens the bullish case. Corrective fall from 118.65 could still be in progress. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside to 111.58 or possibly below. However, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 114.94 resistance should now confirm completion of the correction. And in that case, USD/JPY should target a retest on 118.65 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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USD/JPY’s break of 108.27 low last week indicates resumption of larger fall from 114.73. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Such decline is part of the pattern from 118.65 high and should target 106.48 fibonacci level. On the upside, break of 110.47 resistance is needed to indicate near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.26; (P) 123.68; (R1) 125.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 125.09 temporary top. But downside should be contained by 121.17 minor support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 125.09 will target 161.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 126.09, which is close to 125.85 long term resistance. However, break of 121.17 will indicate short term topping, and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.25; (P) 109.46; (R1) 109.79; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first but risk stays on the downside with 110.79 resistance intact. On the downside, below 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.25; (P) 113.56; (R1) 113.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is mildly on the downside, as corrective fall from 114.69 could extend lower. But downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.60; (P) 105.91; (R1) 106.37; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 107.67 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish and further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. Firm break there will pave the way to 98.97 key support level and below. However, break of 107.67 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 108.93) first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.91; (P) 156.95; (R1) 159.37; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 160.20 short term top is extending. Strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 154.95 to bring recovery. But break of 160.20 is not envisaged for now. However, firm break of 154.95 will turn bias to the downside for deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 152.00).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.