Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.71; (P) 105.07; (R1) 105.35; More...

USD/JPY drops to as low as 104.52 so far and intraday bias on the downside for retesting 104.18 first. Break there will resume larger fall from 111.71 and target 61.8% projection of 109.85 to 104.18 from 106.94 at 103.43 next. On the upside, above 105.17 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.81; (P) 110.03; (R1) 110.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. And risk stays on the downside with 111.65 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 109.52, and sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 109.82) will suggest that it’s at least correcting the rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest long term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall back towards 102.58 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.60; (P) 115.89; (R1) 116.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 116.34 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 114.26 support turned resistance to bring another rally. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.27; (P) 108.44; (R1) 108.73; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Outlook is unchanged as we’d expect upside to be limited by 109.46 resistance to complete the rebound from 104.69 short term bottom. On the downside, below 107.77 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 104.69 low. Overall, larger downtrend from 118.65 (2016 high) is expected to resume finally through 104.62 after current consolidation from 104.69 completes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.27; (P) 111.56; (R1) 111.98; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 112.13 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 110.35 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish and rise from 104.69 is expected to resume. On the upside, break of 112.13 will target 114.54 resistance next. However, firm break of 110.35 should confirm near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 108.49 support and below.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.95; (P) 107.13; (R1) 107.48; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 106.63 will target 106.07. Break there will extend the whole pattern from 111.71 and target 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, however, break of 108.16 will resume the rebound from 106.07 and target 109.85 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.62; (P) 147.01; (R1) 147.80; More…

USD/JPY’s outlook is unchanged as consolidation from 151.93 is extending. Deeper fall might be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. Upside of rally attempt should be limited by 151.39 resistance.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.63; (P) 107.97; (R1) 108.69; More…

USD/JPY drops to as low as 106.60 so far today. Break of 106.78 suggests resumption of fall from 112.40. Intraday bias stays on the downside for next target of 61.8% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 105.83 first, then 104.69 low. On the upside, above 107.56 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside of recovery should be limited below 109.31 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.51; (P) 103.85; (R1) 104.14; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment, and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, sustained break of the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 103.51 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.21; (P) 138.64; (R1) 139.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Strong resistance could be seen from 139.37 to limit upside, to start the third leg of the corrective pattern from 139.37. Break of 136.17 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 130.38 support. Nevertheless, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm up trend resumption for 147.68 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 139.37 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 123.72) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes. Next target is 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.25; (P) 131.95; (R1) 132.60; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range above 129.49 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 134.49 should confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rise to 138.16 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 129.49 at 138.06). However, break of 129.49 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.73) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 137.08) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.07; (R1) 109.68; More..

USD/JPY retreats notably after failing to break through 109.72 resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. As long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise fro 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.19; (P) 138.55; (R1) 139.44; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside at this point. Current decline from 151.93 should target 133.07 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 139.88 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further fall will remain in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.51).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.62; (P) 135.92; (R1) 136.29; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 134.25 support will confirm short term topping at 136.99. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, 136.99 might be a medium term top too. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 131.34 support resistance turned support. Nevertheless, firm break of 136.99 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.73; (P) 157.50; (R1) 158.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. Further rally would remain in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high. But upside should be limited there, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 160.20 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 150.25 only. Another rally is still expected at a later stage through 160.02 to resume the larger up trend. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.10; (P) 107.26; (R1) 107.41; More...

USD/JPY weakens after failing to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA. But it’s staying above 106.63 minor support. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, below 106.63 will target 106.07. Break there will extend the whole pattern from 111.71 and target 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, however, break of 108.16 will resume the rebound from 106.07 and target 109.85 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.82; (P) 112.18; (R1) 112.53; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 111.82 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 113.28 resistance holds. Fall from 114.54 is seen as correcting whole up trend from 104.62, after rejection by 114.73 resistance. Below 111.82 will target 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.77; (P) 157.07; (R1) 157.58; More….

USD/JPY dips mildly today but stays in range of 156.36/157.70. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 156.36 minor support will confirm short term topping at 157.70, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 153.59 support. Firm break there will target 151.86 and below as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. However, break of 157.70 will extend the rally from 151.86 towards 160.20.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.28; (P) 110.93; (R1) 112.02; More..

USD/JPY surges to as high as 111.59 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained trading above long term trend line resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 112.40 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 109.65 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.10; (P) 109.40; (R1) 109.65; More…

USD/JPY’s consolidation from 109.89 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Another rise could be seen with 107.77 minor support intact. On the upside, above 109.89 will target 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. We’d look for topping signal above there. On the downside, break of 107.77 will indicate completion of the rebound from 104.69. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.