Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.12; (P) 106.70; (R1) 107.16; More…

USD/JPY’s corrective trading from 105.24 continues and retreated after losing momentum ahead of 107.67 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral as consolidation from 105.24 might extend. Also, another decline will remain in favor as long as 107.67 holds. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

USD/JPY edged higher to 134.04 last week but retreated again. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 134.04 will resume the rebound from 129.62 towards 137.90 resistance again. On the downside, break of 132.03 support will bring deeper fall to 130.62 support and then 129.62.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.53; (P) 114.04; (R1) 114.45; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 114.54 temporary top. As long as 113.51 support holds, further rise is still expected. On the upside, decisive break of 114.73 will confirm larger bullish case. Next target will be 118.65 resistance. Nonetheless, break of 113.51 will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and bring lengthier consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.38; (P) 113.58; (R1) 113.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

USD/JPY edged higher to 110.02 last week but formed a short term top there and retreated deeply. Though, as the pair drew support from near term channel and recovered, initial bias is neutral this week first. Some more consolidations could be seen in near term. In case of another fall, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 110.02 at 107.95 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 110.02 will resume the rise from 104.62 to t 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 107.95) holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 104.62 low instead.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.51; (P) 110.75; (R1) 111.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Further rally is still expected with 109.70 support intact. Larger up trend from 102.58 might be resuming. Above 111.10 will target 111.71 key resistance next. Firm break there will carry larger implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64 next. On the downside, however, break of 109.70 support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.10; (P) 106.35; (R1) 106.78; More…

At this point, USD/JPY is still staying in sideway trading in range of 105.24/107.67. Intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.67 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.60; (P) 105.91; (R1) 106.37; More…

USD/JPY continues to be bounded in consolidation above 105.24 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.67 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish and further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. Firm break there will pave the way to 98.97 key support level and below. However, break of 107.67 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 108.93) first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

USD/JPY’s decline last week confirms short term topping at 137.90, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 133.81. Some support could be seen there to bring rebound. But near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 137.90 resistance holds, in case of recovery. Sustained break of 133.81 will carry larger bearish implication and target 61.8% retracement at 131.28.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is tentatively seen as completed at 127.20 already. Break of 137.90 will resume the rise to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 134.31) will dampen this bullish view, argue that fall from 151.93 is still on track to another low below 127.20.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.74; (P) 145.47; (R1) 146.19; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Current fall from 151.89 is in progress for next fibonacci level at 136.63. On the upside, above 142.91 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited well below 146.58 resistance to bring another decline.

In the bigger picture, current fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 146.58 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.55; (P) 110.82; (R1) 111.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain son the upside. Current rally should extend to trend line resistance at 112.33. Firm break there will target 114.73 resistance next. On the downside, below 110.60 minor support will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But strong support should be seen from 109.14/110.02 support zone to bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 108.65) holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.78; (P) 148.05; (R1) 148.44; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 140.25 should target a retest on 151.89/93 key resistance zone. On the downside, below 147.64 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.96; (P) 130.24; (R1) 131.60; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Current decline from 151.93 should target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 133.61 from 138.16 at 126.83 next. On the upside, above 131.29 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 134.76 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.73) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 136.06) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.40; (P) 110.60; (R1) 110.93; More…

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 111.05 so far today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current development affirms that consolidation pattern from 11.65 has completed already. Further rise should be seen to retest this high, as well as 111.71 key resistance. On the downside, however, below 110.30 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.34; (P) 148.02; (R1) 149.05; More…

USD/JPY’s retreat from 148.79 extends lower today but stays well above 145.97 resistance turned support. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point, and further rally remains in favor. Corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.23; (P) 105.50; (R1) 105.66; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for consolidation below 105.76 temporary top. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained above 104.39 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 105.76 will resume the rebound from 102.58, for 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 1110.31).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.91; (P) 110.13; (R1) 110.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 109.70 support will revive the case that consolidation pattern from 110.95 has started the third leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 109.17 support first. On the upside, decisive break of 110.95 will confirm resumption of larger rise from 102.58.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. On the upside, decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 107.47 support would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

USD/JPY’s decline accelerated to as low as 138.76 last week. The development suggests that it’s already in correction to whole up trend from 102.58. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 161.8% projection of 151.93 to 145.53 from 146.78 at 136.42. On the upside, above 142.47 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 145.53 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.73).

In the long term picture, rise from 102.58, as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) was put to a halt at 151.93, just ahead of 100% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 102.58 at 152.87. There is no clear sign of long term reversal yet. Such up trend is expected to resume at a later stage, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.05; (P) 110.17; (R1) 110.29; More..

With 109.79 minor support, further rise is expected in USD/JPY. Current rally from 104.45 should target 100% projection of 106.48 to 109.72 from 107.65 at 110.89 next. On the downside, , break of 109.79 support will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 109.07).

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

USD/JPY’s strong break of 104.00 support last week confirms resumption of whole decline from 111.17. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Next near term target is 161.8% projection of 106.10 to 104.02 from 105.34 at 101.97. On the upside, above 104.02 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But overall near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 105.34 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.