Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.71; (P) 150.00; (R1) 150.44; More…

USD/JPY’s rally accelerates to as high as 151.93 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Next target for the up trend is 100% projection of 130.38 to 140.33 from 145.89 at 155.84 next. On the downside, below 150.07 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 145.89 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

USD/JPY remains bounded in range of 105.10/107.05 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revise the case that pull back fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest 104.18 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.76; (P) 105.31; (R1) 105.62; More..

USD/JPY’s breach of channel support is the first sign that rebound from 102.58 has completed. Yet, it’s staying well above 104.40 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and another rise is still in favor. on the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 108.22. However, on the downside, break of 104.40 will turn bias to the downside for 103.31 support.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.84) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.15).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.60; (P) 117.91; (R1) 118.52; More…

A temporary top is formed at 118.44, ahead of 118.65 long term resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained above 116.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, firm break of 118.65 will target 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 113.46 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.00; (P) 110.29; (R1) 110.67; More…

A temporary low is in place at 109.91 in USD/JPY with the current recovery. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Outlook remains bearish as long as 112.18 resistance holds and another fall is expected. Below 109.91 will target 108.81 support first. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.18 resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.58; (P) 108.68; (R1) 108.83; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. With 108.27 support intact, further rally is still expected. On the upside, above 109.20 minor resistance will bring retest of 109.72 first. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.34; (P) 111.64; (R1) 112.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 108.81 continues. Further rally would be seen to channel resistance (now at 112.99). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, break of 110.94 support will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.81; (P) 110.11; (R1) 110.35; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.48; (P) 129.88; (R1) 130.25; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as sideway trading continues above 127.20. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 resistance should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 134.01).

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

USD/JPY’s fall from 114.54 accelerated to as low as 111.82 last week. Current developments suggests that rise from 104.62 has completed at 114.54 after rejection from 114.73 key resistance. USD/JPY is now correcting this whole rise. Initial bias is neutral for consolidation above 111.82 temporary low first. But upside of recovery should bel limited below 113.28 resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 111.82 will target 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.31; (P) 107.70; (R1) 108.10; More..

Further rise is expected in USD/JPY as long as 1.06.74 minor support holds. We’re holding on to the view that corrective fall from 111.71 has completed at 105.98. Next target is 109.38 resistance. However, break of 106.74 minor support will dampen the bullish view and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.74; (P) 113.93; (R1) 114.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 114.05 temporary top. Some consolidations would be seen but downside should be contained above 112.55 support to bring another rally. Above 114.05 will target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm larger bullish case. Next target will be 118.65 resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidation below 148.79 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 145.97 resistance turned support intact, further rally is in favor. As noted before, corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 142.33) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

In the long term picture, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds (2015 high), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to continue through 151.93 (2022 high) at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.50; (P) 111.03; (R1) 111.45; More…

A temporary low is in place at USD/JPY with 4 hour MACD staying above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, we’re still favoring the case for strong support around 111.12/13 to bring rebound. This level represents 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12 and 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. Break of 112.86 resistance will indicates completion of the correction from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 115.49 resistance and above. However, sustained trading below 111.12/13 will pave the way to 100% projection at 108.42 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.12) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.15; (P) 104.32; (R1) 104.41; More...

Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. Overall, the pair is staying inside falling channel, and below 55 day EMA. Down trend from 111.71 is expected to continue as long as 105.67 resistance holds. On the downside, below 103.65 minor support will bring retest of 103.17 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.82; (P) 109.55; (R1) 110.49; More..

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged as consolidation from 109.72 is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 108.27 support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish. Deeper fall should then be seen to 106.48 support first.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.94; (P) 108.14; (R1) 108.38; More…

A temporary low is formed at 107.88 in USD/JPY and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term top should be formed. Upside of recovery should be limited below 109.28/31 resistance to bring fall another decline. On the downside, below 107.88 will target 106.48 support. break will confirm completion of whole rebound from 104.45 and target retest of this low. However, decisive break of 109.31 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and target 112.40 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

USD/JPY edged higher to 131.34 last week but reversed from there and dropped to 127.51. But as a temporary low is formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Price actions from 131.34 are seen as correcting the whole rally from 114.40. Hence, rise will stay on the downside as long as 131.34 holds. Below 127.51 will target 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86).

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. First target at 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 was already met. Next is 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.23; (P) 107.66; (R1) 108.30; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neural at this point. As long as 106.75 support holds, further rally is in favor. Break of 109.70 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 111.71. Decisive break of 112.22 carry larger bullish implication and target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, decisive break of 106.75 support should confirm completion of rebound from 101.18, after failing 112.22 key resistance. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.