Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.43; (P) 107.95; (R1) 108.27; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 108.47 is still extending. On the upside, firm break of 108.47 will resume the rebound from 104.45 to 109.31 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 106.96 will extend the fall from 108.47. Further break of 106.68 will confirm completion of rebound from 104.45 and target a retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.15; (P) 110.39; (R1) 110.79; More…

At this point, USD/JPY is staying below 114.42 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral first. No change in the view that price actions from 113.17 are a corrective pattern. We’d continue to expect strong support around 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will turn bias back to the the upside for retesting 113.17 first. However, sustained break of 109.90 will put 109.36 key support level in focus. Break of 109.36 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.05; (P) 105.24; (R1) 105.55; More..

Focus is now on 105.76 resistance in USD/JPY. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of rise from 102.58 and turn bias to the upside. Such rebound is at least correcting the down trend from 111.71 to 102.58. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 108.22. However, firm break of 104.39 will indicate that rebound from 102.58 has completed at 105.76. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 103.31 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.23).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.36; (P) 115.58; (R1) 115.88; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.54; (P) 113.85; (R1) 114.11; More..

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged at this point. With 112.94 minor support intact, further rise is in favor for 114.54/73. But due to loss of upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 114.54/73 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 112.94 minor support will extend the consolidation pattern from 114.54 with another falling leg back to 111.37. Overall, rise from 104.62 is still in progress and decisive break of 114.73 will confirm resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.92; (P) 114.20; (R1) 114.52; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 114.95 is extending. Further rise is expected as long as 113.74 minor support holds. Break of 114.96 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18. However, break of 113.74 will dampen this bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 112.71 near term structural support.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 111.65 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.71; (P) 136.21; (R1) 136.74; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations could be seen below 136.70 first. Downside should be contained above 131.48 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.18; (P) 151.34; (R1) 151.51; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues below 151.96. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.25). Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.80; (P) 135.39; (R1) 136.67; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Some support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 133.81. Above 135.580 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. However, sustained break of 133.81 will carry larger bearish implication and target 61.8% retracement at 131.28.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is tentatively seen as completed at 127.20 already. Break of 137.90 will resume the rise to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 134.31) will dampen this bullish view, argue that fall from 151.93 is still on track to another low below 127.20.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.08; (P) 113.28; (R1) 113.58; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is mildly on the upside for 114.03 resistance. Break there should resume the rebound from 111.37 and target 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, below 113.00 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 112.23 will extend the consolidation from 114.54 with deeper fall. But after all, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.59; (P) 109.84; (R1) 110.07; More…

USD/JPY remains bounded in tight range below 110.16 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 110.16 will extend the rebound from 104.69. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will now confirm completion of the rebound and bring retest of 104.69 low. However, sustained trading above 110.77 will dampen our bearish view and target a test on 114.54 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.41) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.43; (P) 110.69; (R1) 111.09; More…

USD/JPY’s decline continues and reaches as low as 110.00 so far. Break of 110.35 support indicates that rebound from 104.69 has completed at 112.13 already. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 107.53 next. On the upside, break of 110.95 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 112.13 instead.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, sustained break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.68; (P) 154.33; (R1) 155.56; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen above 151.93 temporary low. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 155.36 support turned resistance holds. Decisive break of 151.89 resistance turned support will argue that large scale correction is underway to 148.66 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 155.36 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, considering the depth and momentum of the current decline, 161.94 should be a medium term top already. Fall from there is seen as correcting the whole rise from 127.20 (2023 low) at least. Break of 151.89 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 161.94 at 148.66. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 157.25) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.74; (P) 115.11; (R1) 115.75; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside as rise from 113.46 is in progress for retesting 116.34 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, below 114.46 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 110.91) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.56; (P) 110.93; (R1) 111.22; More…

With 111.46 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for 110.23 support. Break will resume the fall from 114.36 to 108.12 and below. Note again that decline from 118.65 is seen as a correction. In that bearish case, we’ll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, above 111.46 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.93; (P) 109.39; (R1) 109.78; More…

With 110.04 resistance intact, further decline is still expected in USD/JPY. Fall should 112.40 would target to retest 104.69 low. Nevertheless, break of 110.04 minor resistance will indicate short term bottom. Lengthier consolidation could be seen before another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.55; (P) 108.69; (R1) 108.82; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside for 108.99 resistance. Break will resume whole rebound from 106.78 and target 100% projection of 106.78 to 108.99 from 107.21 at 109.42 and then 161.8% projection at 110.78. On the downside, below 107.93 minor support will turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.93; (P) 111.23; (R1) 111.49; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 110.74 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 110.74 will extend the correction from 113.17 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90. But downside should be contained there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 113.17 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we’d expect more consolidation in near term first.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.82; (P) 109.93; (R1) 110.08; More…

With 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is formed at 110.16 and intraday bias is turned neutral. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will now confirm completion of the rebound and bring retest of 104.69 low. However, sustained trading above 110.77 will dampen our bearish view and target a test on 114.54 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.55) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.31; (P) 107.64; (R1) 108.32; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 108.22 will raise the chance of larger trend reversal and target trend line resistance at 110.01 next. On the downside, below 107.81 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally is expected as long as 106.21 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Sustained break of channel resistance (now at 110.01) will argue that such down trend has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm and pave the way back to 118.65. Nevertheless, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.