Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.88; (P) 131.44; (R1) 132.46; More…

USD/JPY’s strong break of 131.34 resistance confirms up trend resumption. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Next target is 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. On the downside, below 130.97 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral to bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.94; (P) 132.66; (R1) 133.31; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as sideway trading continues. On the upside, break of 134.04 will resume the rebound from 129.62 towards 137.90 resistance again. On the downside, break of 130.62 should resume the fall from 137.90 through 129.62 to retest 127.20 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.39; (P) 109.79; (R1) 110.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is neutral for the moment with focus on 109.46 minor support. Break there will suggest that rebound from 108.10 has completed at 110.26 already. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.10, or further to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. Though, break of 110.26 will resume the rebound to 111.39 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.69; (P) 111.92; (R1) 112.11; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 112.13 temporary top. In case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained above 110.35 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 112.13 will resume rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus now turns back to 114.54 resistance, decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.55; (P) 106.26; (R1) 107.46; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound, while strong, is limited below 107.09 minor resistance so far. Initial bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 107.09 holds, further decline is still in favor. Break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.94).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.63; (P) 149.24; (R1) 149.67; More…

USD/JPY rebounded strongly despite dipping to 148.79. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 150.76 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 151.93 high. On the downside, below 148.79 will bring deeper pull back. But still, overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 147.28 support holds.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.23; (P) 111.34; (R1) 111.44; More…

At this point,f further rise is mildly in favor in USD/JPY as long as 110.80 minor support holds. Decisive break of 112.13 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.69 to 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, below 110.80 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 109.71, and possibly further to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.80), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we’ll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.14; (P) 104.36; (R1) 104.54; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Larger decline from 111.71 is still in progress. Break of 103.65 should turn bias back to the downside for 103.17 low and below. This bearish case will remain favored as long as 105.67 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.32; (P) 155.53; (R1) 155.87; More…

USD/JPY’s fall continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Next target is 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. On the downside, below 155.30 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 153.58 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.33; (P) 156.58; (R1) 157.07; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg, to 100% projection of 151.86 to 156.78 from 153.59 at 158.51. On the downside, below 153.59 will target 151.86 and below as the third leg.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.06; (P) 156.08; (R1) 156.60; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 resumed by breaking through 155.36 today and intraday bias is back on the downside. Further decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 153.65. Some support could be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 157.85 resistance holds, even in case of strong recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.89 resistance turned support holds, long term up trend could still continue through 161.94 at a later stage. Next target will depend on the depth of the current correction from 161.94. However, sustained break of 151.89 will argue that larger scale correction or trend reversal is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.09; (P) 108.33; (R1) 108.62; More…

USD/JPY drops notably in early US session but stays above 107.81 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. Outlook is unchanged that with 109.02 support turned resistance intact, current fall from 112.40 is expected to extend further. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. Though, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.28; (P) 148.19; (R1) 148.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and range trading continues. More consolidation would be seen for the near term. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. Upside of rally attempt should be limited by 151.39 resistance.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.59; (P) 109.74; (R1) 109.91; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 110.01 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further remains in favor as long 108.30 support holds. On the upside, above 110.01 will target 110.28 first. Break will resume larger rebound from 104.45 and target medium term falling channel resistance at 111.19.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.63; (P) 109.78; (R1) 109.99; More…

USD/JPY’s correction from 110.95 short term top is still in progress. Deeper decline could be seen to 108.40 support. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 107.75 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 110.95 will resume the whole rise from 102.58, for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone next

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. Rejection by 111.71, however, will keep medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.77; (P) 111.04; (R1) 111.57; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 112.14 resistance. As noted before, the correction from 113.17 should have completed at 109.76 already. Break of 112.14 will bring retest of 113.17 high. On the downside, below 110.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 109.76 again. But after all, we’d continue to expect strong support around 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.74; (P) 148.28; (R1) 148.71; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 148.79 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, further rally is expected as long as 145.97 resistance turned support holds. Corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.01; (P) 149.29; (R1) 149.56; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for now, despite some loss of momentum. Further rally would be seen to retest 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of larger up trend. On the downside, below 147.62 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 145.88 support holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption, and next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.04; (P) 132.41; (R1) 133.26; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28 will pave the way to retest 127.20 low next. On the upside, above 133.81 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.82; (P) 108.73; (R1) 109.20; More…

USD/JPY’s decline is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current fall from 112.40 should target 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. On the upside, break of 109.15 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.