Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.58; (P) 110.78; (R1) 111.04; More…

USD/JPY retreats mildly after hitting 111.18. But with 110.62 minor support intact, intraday bias stays mildly on the upside. The pull back from 112.13 should have completed with three waves down to 109.71. Further rise would be seen to 112.13 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 104.69 to 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, below 110.53 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 109.71 and possibly further to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.80), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we’ll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.82; (P) 109.55; (R1) 110.49; More..

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged as consolidation from 109.72 is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 108.27 support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish. Deeper fall should then be seen to 106.48 support first.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.68; (P) 111.23; (R1) 111.60; More….

As long as 109.58 minor support intact, further rise is still expected in USD/JPY. Sustained trading above 111.58 support turned resistance will indicate that fall from 118.65 is merely a corrective move and has completed. Outlook will then be turned bullish for 115.49 resistance and above. However, break of 109.58 will argue that fall from 118.65 is still in progress and will turn bias to the downside for 108.12 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.89; (P) 107.13; (R1) 107.48; More...

USD/JPY is extending the retreat from 107.76 temporary top and intraday bias stays neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that corrective fall from 111.71 should have completed with three waves down to 105.98. Further rise is expected as long as 105.98 support holds. On the upside, break of 107.76 will turn bias back to the upside for 109.38 resistance first. However, break of 105.98 will dampen our bullish view and bring deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.65; (P) 109.02; (R1) 109.60; More…

USD/JPY recovered ahead of 108.12/26 support zone and intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the downside, decisive break of 108.12 will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65. Next target will be 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. In any case, outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 110.94 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.03; (P) 122.12; (R1) 122.92; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rise is still in favor with 121.17 minor support intact. On the upside, above 125.09 will target 161.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 126.09, which is close to 125.85 long term resistance. However, break of 121.17 will indicate short term topping, and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.19; (P) 108.37; (R1) 108.56; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 107.81 and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 109.02 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. Though, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.27; (P) 142.87; (R1) 143.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for consolidation below 145.89. Further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.39; (P) 127.99; (R1) 129.03; More…

USD/JPY’s up trend resumed by breaking through 129.39 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside. Immediate focus is now on 130.04 long term projection level. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 121.27 to 129.39 from 126.91 at 131.92, and then 100% projection at 135.03. On the downside, break of 126.91 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 100% project at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

USD/JPY rebounded to 105.67 last week but failed to break through 106.10 resistance. Subsequent break of 104.73 minor support suggest that it’s completed. Also, the pair is staying well inside falling channel, and below 55 day EMA, keeping near term outlook bearish. Intraday bias is now on the downside for retesting 103.17. On the upside, break of 105.67 will target 106.10 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.07; (R1) 109.54; More…

USD/JPY’s recovery continues today but is staying well below 110.18 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook stays bearish. That is, deeper decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 108.27 will extend recent fall through 107.31 support to next fibonacci support at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 110.18 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 111.47 resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.29; (P) 114.47; (R1) 114.79; More…

Further rise could be seen in USD/JPY as rebound from 113.47 might extend. But we’re not expecting a break of 116.34 for now. Instead, the corrective pattern from there should extend with another falling leg. On the downside, break of 114.30 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 113.47. Break there will target 112.52 structural support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. However, firm break of 112.52 support will dampen this bullish case and we’ll assess the outlook based on subsequent price actions later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.82; (P) 113.01; (R1) 113.14; More...

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral first. . On the downside, break of 112.30 will extend the fall from 114.20 and target 111.37 support. Such decline is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 114.54. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 113.21 will indicate that fall from 114.20 has completed. And, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 114.54/73 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.01; (P) 106.23; (R1) 106.63; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 106.73 resistance now suggests short term bottoming at 104.45, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is now back on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 107.17). Note that USD/JPY has just drew support from 104.62 key support. Sustained break of 55 day EMA will indicate short term reversal and pave the way to 109.31 resistance next. On the downside, break of 105.73 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.45 low instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 109.31 resistance is needed to the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.26; (P) 110.46; (R1) 110.66; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 110.00/111.13 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 110.00 resistance turned support will suggest rejection by 110.77 and the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 111.13 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it couldn’t sustain above 55 day EMA yet. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.30; (P) 113.50; (R1) 113.82; More..

With 113.14 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 114.03 resistance. Break there should resume rebound from 111.37 and target 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, below 113.14 minor support will turn bias the downside for 112.23 and below. Overall, price actions 114.54 are seen as a consolidative pattern. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

USD/JPY surged to as high as 104.93 last week, breaking both falling channel resistance and 55 day EMA decisively. The development argues that down trend from 111.71 has completed at 102.58, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. On the downside, break of 104.16 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.97) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 1110.31).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.72; (P) 113.28; (R1) 113.73; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Correction from 118.65 should have completed at 111.58, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rally would be seen to 115.36 resistance. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 high next. In that case, the larger rally from 98.97 could be resuming. On the downside, below 112.85 minor support will dampen this bullish view and could extend the correction from 118.65. In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.99; (P) 115.26; (R1) 115.68; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend from 102.58 should target 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. On the downside, below 114.81 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 113.57 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 111.65 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.48; (P) 136.73; (R1) 137.17; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading is still extending. On the downside, firm break of 134.73 will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD. Deeper fall would be seen through 55 day EMA to 126.35/131.34 support zone. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.