Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.04; (P) 133.26; (R1) 135.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside, with immediate focus on on 55 week EMA (now at 131.76). Decisive break there will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 121.43. On the upside, above 133.61 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 138.16 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.76) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.69; (P) 151.22; (R1) 152.18; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 151.82 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.97) holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 146.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.40; (P) 132.99; (R1) 133.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Corrective pattern from 127.20 is extending with another rising leg. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 133.43) will target 137.90 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 129.62 will bring retest of 127.20 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.15; (P) 136.80; (R1) 137.28; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 139.37 extends lower today and focus is now on 134.73 support. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 134.73 will argue that it’s already in correction to medium term up trend. Deeper decline would then be seen through 55 day EMA to 126.35/131.34 support zone. On the upside, above 137.44 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 139.37 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.48; (P) 113.92; (R1) 114.79; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 112.71 support. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 115.51 is already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper decline would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 115.51 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.82; (P) 112.18; (R1) 112.53; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral for consolidation with a temporary low in place at 111.82. But further decline is expected as long as 113.28 resistance holds. Fall from 114.54 is seen as correcting whole up trend from 104.62, after rejection by 114.73 resistance. Below 111.82 will target 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.19; (P) 111.37; (R1) 111.60; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. Corrective fall from 113.17 could extend lower. But in case of deeper fall, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 112.14 will target a test on 113.17 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.75; (P) 106.38; (R1) 107.62; More..

Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is mildly in favor with 104.50 minor support intact. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 112.22 to 101.18 at 108.00 will target 112.22 resistance next. On the downside, break of 104.50 will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound. However, break of 112.22 will be a strong sign on medium term bullish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.60; (P) 108.11; (R1) 108.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside at this point. Corrective rebound from 107.54 should have completed at 108.99, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Further fall should be seen and break of 107.53 support will likely send USD/JPY through 106.78 to resume the decline from 112.40. For now, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 108.99 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.95; (P) 106.18; (R1) 106.43; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. As long as 106.73 resistance holds, further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.23) and above.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 109.31 resistance is needed to the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.13; (P) 133.55; (R1) 134.07; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 135.13 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 132.03 support holds. On the upside, break of 135.13 will resume the choppy rebound from 129.62 towards 137.90 resistance next. However, break of 132.03 will argue that the rebound has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 129.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.36; (P) 132.80; (R1) 133.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Immediate focus remains on 55 week EMA (now at 131.78). Decisive break there will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 121.43. On the upside, above 133.61 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 138.16 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.76) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.03; (P) 143.45; (R1) 144.14; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside and current rally from 127.20 should target 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93. On the downside, below 142.66 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will now remain in favor as long as 137.90 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 137.90 resistance turned support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 137.90 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.11; (P) 136.54; (R1) 137.50; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 134.73 will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD. Deeper fall would be seen through 55 day EMA to 126.35/131.34 support zone. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.54; (P) 112.68; (R1) 112.96; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumes after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside for 113.17 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 resistance next. On the downside, below 112.39 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 111.82 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.48; (P) 147.68; (R1) 147.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside despite loss of momentum. Current rise is part of the whole rally from 127.20, and should target 151.93 high. On the downside, below 147.00 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 145.88 support holds.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.71; (P) 111.07; (R1) 111.32; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as it’s bounded in range of 110.58/112.14. The corrective decline from 113.17 could extend lower through 110.58. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 112.14 will target a test on 113.17 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.41; (P) 113.81; (R1) 114.24; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 114.69 is extending. On the downside, break of 113.40 minor support will bring deeper pull back. But downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.11; (P) 154.43; (R1) 154.71; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 155.20 fibonacci projection level. On the downside, break of 153.89 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 55 4H EMA (now at 153.41) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.36; (P) 111.51; (R1) 111.78; More…

USD/JPY rebounds strongly but stays below 112.07 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Consolidation form 112.07 could still extend. But in case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 110.44 support. On the upside, above 112.07 will extend larger rise to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 next. However, break of 110.44 will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.11 support.

In the bigger picture, break of 111.71 resistance suggests that the whole corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed at 101.18 (2020 low) already. Medium term bullishness is also affirmed as USD/JPY stays well above 55 week EMA (now at 108.60). Sustained trading above 111.71 will affirm this bullish case. Rise from 101.18 could then be resuming whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) through 118.65. This will now be the preferred case as long as 108.71 support holds.