Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.40; (P) 104.62; (R1) 104.83; More..

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 104.39 resistance turned support will indicate that rebound from 102.58 has completed at 105.76. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 103.31 support first. Though, rebound from current level, followed by break of 105.76 will target 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.31).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.73; (P) 103.96; (R1) 104.34; More..

The break of channel resistance is already a sign that down trend from 111.71 has completed. Focus remains on 104.39 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm and bring stronger rise to 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. On the downside, however, break of 103.31 will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.06; (P) 144.67; (R1) 145.17; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 145.89 could extend further. Further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.93; (P) 147.40; (R1) 147.76; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as consolidation continues below 147.88. Intraday bias remains neutral first. While deeper retreat could be seen, outlook will stay bullish as long as 144.43 support holds. On the upside, above 147.88 will resume larger rally from 127.20, to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.02; (P) 133.53; (R1) 134.76; More…

USD/JPY’s recovery from 132.27 extends higher today and with break of 134.68 minor resistance, intraday bias is turned neutral first. Fall from 137.90 could still extend lower and break of 132.27 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28. Break of 137.90 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of the rally from 127.20, or risk will stay mildly on the downside.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.88; (P) 105.80; (R1) 106.35; More…

USD/JPY recovers strongly after hitting 104.45 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Some sideway trading could be seen. But outlook remains bearish as long as 106.73 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.49).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.92; (P) 106.16; (R1) 106.48; More..

Break of 106.21 resistance suggests resumption of whole rebound from 102.58. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 108.22. However, break of 104.91 support will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.84) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.15).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.83; (P) 132.79; (R1) 133.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 133.73. Overall, rise from 129.62 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 127.20. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 133.34) will target 137.90 resistance. On the downside, break of 131.75 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 129.62 first. Break there will bring retest of 127.20 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.24; (P) 113.48; (R1) 113.88; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 112.94 minor support. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 111.37. And, in that case, consolidation from 114.54 would start the third leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 111.37 support. On the upside, in case of another rally, due to loss of upside momentum, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 114.54/73 zone to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.62; (P) 106.87; (R1) 107.17; More…

With 107.29 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside. Corrective recovery from 104.45 has completed at 108.47, ahead of 109.31 key resistance. Further fall should be seen for retesting 104.45 low first. On the upside, above 107.29 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 108.47 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.21; (P) 136.72; (R1) 137.20; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for retesting 133.61 low. Firm break there will resume the decline from 151.93. On the upside, above 137.84 resistance will revive the case of short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 141.02).

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.29; (P) 114.47; (R1) 114.79; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 113.47 accelerated higher today. While further rise cannot be ruled out, we’re not expecting a break of 116.34 for now. Instead, the corrective pattern from there should extend with another falling leg. On the downside, break of 114.30 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 113.47. Break there will target 112.52 structural support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. However, firm break of 112.52 support will dampen this bullish case and we’ll assess the outlook based on subsequent price actions later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.24; (P) 139.74; (R1) 140.70; More…

USD/JPY’s firm break of 139.37 resistance confirms up trend resumption. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 143.40 next. Sustained break there could bring upside acceleration of 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, below 138.04 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indicate of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.85; (P) 142.87; (R1) 145.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 145.89. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will resume larger rally to 147.68 long term resistance. However, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.40; (P) 108.61; (R1) 108.93; More…

Focus remains on 108.80 resistance in USD/JPY. Sustained trading above there will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. Further rise should then been seen to 110.67 resistance next. However, on the downside, break of 108.28 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.53 support and then 106.78 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.28; (P) 112.72; (R1) 113.09; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s bounded in range of 112.02/113.74.Also, outlook remains cautiously bullish as long as 112.02 holds and further rise is in favor. Break of 113.74 will resume the rebound from 110.83 and target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 112.02 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 114.73 with another leg through 110.83 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.56; (P) 113.85; (R1) 114.24; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged, as consolidation from 114.69 is still extending. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. Break of 113.24 will bring deeper pull back, but downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.54; (P) 106.78; (R1) 107.12; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Corrective fall from 111.71 should have completed with three waves down to 104.18, after missing 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. Further rise should be seen to 108.16 resistance. Firm break will target 109.85 and above. This will now remain the favored case as long as 105.30 support holds, even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.06; (P) 133.06; (R1) 134.42; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral first with focus on 134.49 resistance. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 134.49 should confirm short term bottoming. Bias will be turned back to the upside for 138.16 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 129.49 at 138.06. On the downside, break of 129.49 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.65) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 137.26) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.00; (P) 105.35; (R1) 105.65; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. Though, further decline is expected as long as 107.09 resistance holds. Break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.