Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.89; (P) 106.29; (R1) 106.98; More...

USD/JPY is still holding in range of 105.10/107.05 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally. On the downside, break of 105.10 will target a test on 104.18. Break there will resume whole decline from 111.71.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.24; (P) 113.48; (R1) 113.88; More..

USD/JPY is staying in range of 112.94/114.20 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. As noted before due to loss of upside momentum, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 114.54/73 zone to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 112.94 minor support will extend the consolidation pattern from 114.54 with another falling leg back to 111.37. Overall, rise from 104.62 is still in progress and decisive break of 114.73 will confirm resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.21; (P) 108.48; (R1) 108.91; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the upside. Break of 108.99 will target 100% projection of 106.78 to 108.99 from 107.21 at 109.42 and then 161.8% projection at 110.78. On the downside, below 107.93 minor support will turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.71; (P) 105.07; (R1) 105.35; More...

USD/JPY drops to as low as 104.52 so far and intraday bias on the downside for retesting 104.18 first. Break there will resume larger fall from 111.71 and target 61.8% projection of 109.85 to 104.18 from 106.94 at 103.43 next. On the upside, above 105.17 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.18; (P) 110.40; (R1) 110.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. Corrective recovery from 109.02 should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 110.82) to bring another fall. On the downside, below 109.81 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 109.02. Break there will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. However, sustained trading above 55 day EMA will indicate completion of the fall from 112.40 and bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

USD/JPY edged higher to 112.40 last week but retreated sharply since then. A short term top should be in place on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for 110.84 support first. Break will add to the case of reversal and target 109.71 support and below. On the upside, decisive break of 112.40 is needed to confirm resumption of rise from 104.69. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the downside.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.27; (P) 142.87; (R1) 143.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation continues below 145.89. Further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.54; (P) 113.85; (R1) 114.11; More..

With 112.94 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor for 114.54/73 resistance zone. But due to loss of upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 114.54/73 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 112.94 minor support will extend the consolidation pattern from 114.54 with another falling leg back to 111.37. Overall, rise from 104.62 is still in progress and decisive break of 114.73 will confirm resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.84; (P) 111.34; (R1) 111.82; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Rise from 110.23 is seen as a correction and the larger fall is expected to resume later. On the downside, below 110.85 minor support will turn bias to the downside to extend the fall from 114.36 to 108.12 low. Break there will resume the whole decline from 118.65. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.78; (P) 132.24; (R1) 132.85; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in tight range above 130.55 and intraday bias remains neutral. Immediate focus remains on 55 week EMA (now at 131.76). Decisive break there will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 121.43. On the upside, above 133.61 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 138.16 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.76) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.58; (P) 150.27; (R1) 151.55; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at for 151.93 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. On the downside, below 150.76 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.18) holds.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.07; (P) 113.20; (R1) 113.34; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside as rebound from 111.37 is resuming. Further rise should be seen for 114.54/73 key resistance zone next. On the downside, break of 112.56 minor support will argue the the rebound has completed. And, in that case, the corrective pattern from 114.54 could have started the third leg for 111.37 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.33; (P) 148.62; (R1) 148.96; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as intraday bias stays neutral. Focus stays on 148.79 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. For now, further rise will remain in favor as long as 145.88 holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.08; (P) 149.38; (R1) 149.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 148.57 minor support will indicate rejection by 55 4H EMA, and turn bias back to the downside for 147.14 and below, to resume the fall from 151.89. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 149.62) will revive near term bullishness, and target a retest on 151.89/93 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.24; (P) 139.74; (R1) 140.70; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 143.40 next. Sustained break there could bring upside acceleration of 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, below 138.04 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indicate of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.80; (P)199.63; (R1) 200.50; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Firm break of 199.00 support will suggest short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Rise from 191.34, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 200.53, might have completed too. Deeper fall should then be seen to 197.07 resistance turned support next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 200.53 after breaching 199.80 long term fibonacci level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 185.01) holds, price actions from there is seen as correcting the rise from 178.32 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 178.32 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.87; (P) 104.06; (R1) 104.37; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as sideway consolidation continues. Larger decline from 111.71 is still in progress. Break of 103.65 should turn bias back to the downside for 103.17 low and below. This bearish case will remain favored as long as 105.67 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.91; (P) 112.94; (R1) 113.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. The choppy decline from 118.65 is still in progress and could target 8.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we’re still viewing the fall as a corrective move. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 111.13 to contain downside an bring rebound. On the upside, above 115.36 resistance will argue that such correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.49; (P) 106.62; (R1) 107.26; More..

USD/JPY’s fall from 112.22 extends to as low as 105.75 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 104.45 low. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 118.65. On the upside, break of 107.74 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current steep decline and rejection by 112.40 resistance mixes up the medium term outlook again. Sustained break of 108.30 support will argue that larger fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) hasn’t completed. Further fall could be seen through 104.45 low to 98.97 key support (2016 low). Nevertheless, break of 112.40 resistance will revive the case of bullish reversal and target 114.54 key resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.48; (P) 146.97; (R1) 147.70; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 146.22 temporary top. Further decline is expected as long as 148.50 resistance holds, even in case of stronger recovery. On the downside, firm break of 146.22 will resume the fall from 151.89 to 145.06 key support level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.