Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.56; (P) 143.01; (R1) 143.79; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA (now at 141.89) will argue that rebound from 137.22 has completed at 143.88. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 137.22/138.05 support zone, as the third leg of the pattern from 145.06. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will bring further rise though 143.88 to retest 145.06 high.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.18; (P) 105.33; (R1) 105.58; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 104.94/106.10 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is in favor with 104.94 support intact. On the upside, break of 106.10 will target 106.94 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the whole decline from 111.71. On the downside, break of 104.94 support will revive near term bearishness and target a test on 104.00 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.79; (P) 141.52; (R1) 141.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. With 142.45 minor resistance intact, further decline is in favor. Break of 139.63 minor support will bring retest of 137.66 low first. Break there will resume the decline from 151.93, to 133.07 fibonacci level, as a correction to the larger up trend. Nevertheless, firm break of 142.45 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 143.32) and above.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.28).

USD/JPY retreated steeply after edging higher to 151.69 last week. But downside is contained above 148.79 support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Price actions from 151.69 could still be seen as a consolidation pattern only. However, firm break of 148.79 will indicate rejection by 151.93 key resistance, and bring deeper fall through 147.28 support.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Another falling leg could be seen, but in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75. On resumption, next target would be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.60; (P) 113.85; (R1) 114.05; More..

Further rise is expected in USD/JPY as long as 112.94 support holds, towards 114.54/73 resistance zone. As upside momentum isn’t too convincing, we’d be cautions strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another decline. Overall, rise from 104.62 is still in progress and decisive break of 114.73 will confirm resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.93; (P) 139.66; (R1) 140.07; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Downside of retreat should be contained above 138.22 support to bring another rally. Break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 135.89).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.26; (P) 111.60; (R1) 112.27; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rebound 110.10 short term bottom should extend higher to 55 day EMA (now at 112.91). Sustained break there will raise the chance of near term reversal and target 115.49 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, below 110.99 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 110.10 and break will extend the corrective fall from 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.11) will indicates that such consolidation is not completed. And another fall would be seen back to 98.97 as the third leg. In that case, downside would be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.95 at 94.77 to complete the correction. On the upside, above 115.49 will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85 first. Overall, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume after the consolidation from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.35; (P) 112.60; (R1) 112.84; More…

USD/JPY’s pull back from 113.08 extends lower today. Near term outlook is a bit unclear and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, above 113.08 will extend the rebound from 110.83 to retest 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will extend the rally from 107.31 to retest 118.65 high. On the downside, break of 110.83 will resume the decline from 114.73 instead. But in that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed a 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.07; (R1) 109.68; More..

USD/JPY retreats notably after failing to break through 109.72 resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. As long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise fro 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.32; (P) 107.54; (R1) 107.71; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment and further decline remains in favor. On the downside, break of 106.91 will extend the decline from 111.71 to 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 109.38 will suggest that fall from 111.71 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.75; (P) 109.93; (R1) 110.02; More..

USD/JPY’s break of 109.76 minor support confirms short term topping at 110.28, after hitting channel resistance. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 109.14). Break will put focus on 107.65 key support. On the upside, break of 110.28 will resume whole rebound from 104.45 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.80; (P) 136.76; (R1) 137.70; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Overall, price actions from 139.37 are seen as a corrective pattern, with rise from 130.38 has the second leg. Above 137.70 will extend the rebound but upside should be limited by 139.37. On the downside, firm break of 135.57 will suggest that the third leg of the pattern has started, and turn intraday bias back to the downside for 131.72 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 139.37 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 123.21) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.04; (P) 106.37; (R1) 106.56; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 107.09 minor resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish for further decline. On the downside, break of 105.04 will resume larger fall from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.66).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.08; (P) 115.22; (R1) 115.50; More…

USD/JPY rises to as high as 115.80 so far today and the strong break of 115.51 resistance confirms resumption of whole up trend from 102.58. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance. On the downside, break of 114.93 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 112.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall should extend to 106.48 fibonacci level. We’d look for strong support around there to bring rebound. However, on the upside, break of 108.80 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.22; (P) 107.99; (R1) 108.59; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall should extend to 106.48 fibonacci level. We’d look for strong support around there to bring rebound. However, on the upside, break of 108.80 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.12; (P) 111.28; (R1) 111.40; More…

USD/JPY fails to take out 111.78 temporary top and stays in range. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is favor with 110.63 minor support intact. Above 111.78 will target channel resistance (now at 112.82). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 110.63 will turn bias back to the downside for 108.81 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.02; (P) 157.38; (R1) 157.78; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and further decline is expected with 158.85 resistance intact. Below 155.36 will target 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 153.65. On the upside, above 158.85 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.89 resistance turned support holds, long term up trend could still continue through 161.94 at a later stage. Next target will depend on the depth of the current correction from 161.94. However, sustained break of 151.89 will argue that larger scale correction or trend reversal is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.89; (P) 139.84; (R1) 140.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for consolidation above 138.45 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 145.54 support turned resistance and bring another fall. Break of 138.45 will resume the decline from 151.93, as a correction to the larger up trend, towards 133.07 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.58).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.69; (P) 109.83; (R1) 109.92; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation form 110.01 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise remains in favor as long 108.30 support holds. On the upside, above 110.01 will target 110.28 first. Break will resume larger rebound from 104.45 and target medium term falling channel resistance at 111.19.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.18; (P) 104.47; (R1) 104.70; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Larger decline from 111.71 is still in progress. Break of 103.65 should turn bias back to the downside for 103.17 low and below. This bearish case will remain favored as long as 105.67 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.