Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.23; (P) 105.52; (R1) 105.75; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first with focus now on 105.10 support. Break will turn bias to the downside for retesting 104.18. Further break there will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case that pull back from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.42; (P) 113.89; (R1) 114.33; More…

USD/JPY’s retreat from 114.36 extends lower but it’s staying above 112.08 support. Intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidation and outlook is unchanged. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 112.08 support and bring another rally. Outlook remains unchanged that correction from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.12. Above 114.36 will target 115.49 resistance first. Break will resume larger rally from 98.97 to 125.85 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.02; (P) 105.35; (R1) 105.54; More..

USD/JPY’s pull back from 105.67 extends lower today but outlook is unchanged. We’d expect down side to be contained above 104.39 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 105.76 will resume the rebound from 102.58, for 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. However, decisive break of 104.39 will indicate that the rebound has completed, and bring retest of 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 1110.31).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.71; (P) 105.97; (R1) 106.29; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and more consolidative trading could be seen. But as long as 106.73 resistance holds, outlook remains bearish for further decline. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.34).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.77; (P) 148.10; (R1) 148.70; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 127.20 is in progress to retest 151.93 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 147.31 support will should confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 145.88 support and below.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.96; (P) 109.32; (R1) 110.06; More…

Break of 109.68 resistance suggests that rebound from 107.47 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 110.95 high. On the downside, however, break of 108.34 support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below. Overall, USD/JPY was once again supported by 55 day EMA, which gives mild near term bullish favor.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.30; (P) 108.56; (R1) 108.77; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 107.81 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 109.02 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. Though, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.13; (P) 151.35; (R1) 151.64; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 151.82 is still extending. Further rally is expected as long as 150.25 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. However, firm break of 150.25 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.80; (P) 106.09; (R1) 106.32; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first as it’s still bounded in sideway trading. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case that pull back fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest 104.18 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.69; (P) 110.90; (R1) 111.16; More…

USD/JPY is losing some upside momentum again but further rise is mildly in favor for 111.71 resistance. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64 next. For now, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 109.70 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. On the upside, decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 107.47 support would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.28; (P) 111.45; (R1) 111.61; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 112.13 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 110.35 support hold, near term outlook remains bullish. On the upside, break of 112.13 will resume the rally from 104.69 to 114.54 resistance next. However, firm break of 110.35 should confirm near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 108.49 support and below.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.81; (P) 110.03; (R1) 110.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and risk stays on the downside with 111.65 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 109.52, and sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 109.78) will suggests that it’s at least correcting the rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest long term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall back towards 102.58 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.39; (P) 107.64; (R1) 108.03; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. While the rebound from 105.54 is strong, it’s limited below 108.27 support turned resistance. Such rebound is seen as a corrective move. Intraday bias stays neutral and near term outlook remains bearish. Below 105.54 will extend the larger fall from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. However, break of 107.72 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.13; (P) 109.36; (R1) 109.55; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 110.00 will resume the rebound from 104.69. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 109.14 minor support will be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside for 107.77 minor support first.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.82) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.02; (P) 147.21; (R1) 147.86; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 151.93. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 148.84 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back towards 151.93 high. But upside should be limited there to continue the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.40; (P) 112.67; (R1) 113.01; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 113.25 continues. On the upside, sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.12; (P) 113.56; (R1) 114.35; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 113.65 minor resistance suggests that corrective pull back from 114.69 is complete at 112.71. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 114.69 first. Sustained break there will resume larger up trend for 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. On the downside, in case of another fall, we’d continue to expect downside to be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.41; (P) 121.91; (R1) 122.86; More…

USD/JPY is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 120.58 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63, will pave the way to 125.85 long term resistance. On the downside, however, below 120.58 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 118.65 resistance (2016 high) suggest that up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming, with rise from 101.18 (2020 low) as the third leg. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.49; (P) 123.77; (R1) 124.07; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 125.09 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Outlook stays bullish with 121.17 support intact and further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 125.09 will target 125.85 long term resistance. Firm break pave the way to 130.04 long term projection level. However, break of 121.17 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.23; (P) 110.41; (R1) 110.73; More…

Break of 110.00 minor support suggests that USD/JPY’s recovery from 109.05 has completed at 110.58. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 109.05 support first. Break there will resume the fall from 111.65 to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18. On the upside, above 110.58 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 111.65 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.