Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.74; (P) 108.10; (R1) 108.42; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 108.47 first. With 107.45 minor support intact, further rise cannot be ruled out. But we’d continue to look for topping sign as it approaches this 109.31 key resistance. On the downside, break of 107.45 minor support will suggest that rebound from 104.45 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside. Break of 106.68 resistance turned support will confirm and target 104.45 low. However, decisive break of 109.31 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.09; (P) 111.29; (R1) 111.47; More…

With today’s retreat, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first. We’re still favoring the case that correction from 113.17 has completed at 109.76 already. On the upside, above 111.48 will extend the rebound from 109.76 to 112.14 first. Break will target a test on 113.17 high. Meanwhile, below 110.74 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.76 instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.79; (P) 131.27; (R1) 132.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 129.62 is extending. Outlook remains bearish as long as 132.99 resistance holds. Break of 129.62 will target a test on 127.20 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 151.93 to 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is still in progress. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.41; (P) 139.32; (R1) 139.82; More…

Sideway trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. With 138.22 minor support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 136.70).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.31; (P) 144.61; (R1) 145.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen first, but further rally will remain in favor as long as 140.90 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 145.06 will resume larger rise to 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 137.90 resistance turned support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 137.90 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.13; (P) 151.35; (R1) 151.64; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged at consolidation from 151.82 is still extending. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 150.25 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. However, firm break of 150.25 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.40; (P) 111.82; (R1) 112.52; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 112.40 resistance. Decisive break there will affirm medium term bullishness and target 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, below 111.11 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 110.28 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.65; (P) 103.87; (R1) 104.24; More..

USD/JPY rebounded strongly after dipping to 103.51 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Overall, the pair is staying inside the falling channel from 111.71. Break of 103.51 will target 103.17 first. Break there will resume the whole decline to 101.18 low. For now, break of 104.57 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.70; (P) 111.92; (R1) 112.07; More…

Despite a brief retreat, outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and further rise is expected. Current rebound from 109.76 should target 100% projection of 109.76 to 111.82 from 110.37 at 112.43 first. Break will target a test on 113.17 high. On the downside, break of 111.10, however, will argue that the rebound is completed. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 110.37 support.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.49; (P) 113.79; (R1) 114.03; More…

USD/JPY’s pull back from 114.54 short term top extended lower and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 110.37 to 114.54 at 112.94. We’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 113.55 minor resistance will bring retest on 114.54 and 114.73 key resistance first. However, break of 112.94 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 111.96.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.66; (P) 109.20; (R1) 109.60; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 109.14 minor support suggests that whole rebound from 104.69 has completed at 110.00 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 107.77 support first. Decisive break there should confirm this bearish case and target retesting 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 110.00 will extend the rebound. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.82) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.26; (P) 109.48; (R1) 109.81; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 109.02 temporary low is extending. Further decline is expected as long as 110.04 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 109.02 will resume the fall from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. Nevertheless, break of 110.04 minor resistance will indicate short term bottom. Lengthier consolidation could then be seen before another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.27; (P) 155.13; (R1) 157.26; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as correction from 160.20 is in progress. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 157.98 resistance holds. Deeper pullback would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 152.25), and possibly further to 61.8% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 151.71. But strong support should be seen from 150.87 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.39; (P) 110.56; (R1) 110.82; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s bounded in range of 110.27/111.13. On the downside, below 110.27 will bring deeper fall to 109.367 support. Break there will confirm that corrective pattern from 111.39 has started the third leg. And USD/JPY should target 108.10, and possibly below. In that case, we’d expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. On the upside, above 111.13 will bring retest of 111.39 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.61; (P) 147.77; (R1) 148.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside, as recent rally resumed after brief consolidations. Current rise from 127.20 should target a retest on 151.93 high. On the downside, below 147.49 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 145.88 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.22; (P) 148.73; (R1) 149.02; More…

USD/JPY recovers further today but stays well below 150.15 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 150.15 is still extending. On the downside, below 148.24 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg through 147.28. But there is no confirmation of bearish trend reversal before firm break of 144.43 support. Another rally remains mildly in favor through 150.15 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.63; (P) 106.36; (R1) 107.20; More…

USD/JPY weakens today but stays above 105.52 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first and more consolidation could be seen. But upside should be limited well below 109.31 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 105.52 will target 104.69 low next.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.53; (P) 103.93; (R1) 104.14; More..

USD/JPY’s rebound from 102.58 might have completed at 104.39, after rejection by falling channel resistance. Deeper fall would be seen to retest 102.58 low. Break will resume larger down trend from 111.17. On the upside, sustained break of the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.89; (P) 137.27; (R1) 137.84; More…

Despite some loss of upside momentum, intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for retesting 138.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen from 139.37 high to bring another fall from to extend the corrective pattern from there. On the downside below 134.61 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 131.72 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 139.37 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 123.21) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.26; (P) 115.36; (R1) 115.48; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. Further rally will be expected as long as 113.57 support holds. Break of 115.51 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. However, break of 113.57 will indicate that larger correction is underway, and targets 112.71 support next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 111.65 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.