Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.27; (P) 147.32; (R1) 148.97; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 151.39 is extending. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 149.69 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back towards 151.93 high. But upside should be limited there to continue the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.32; (P) 105.71; (R1) 106.24; More..

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and focus stays on 106.21 resistance. Firm break there will resume rise from 102.58, to 61.8% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 108.22. Rejection by 106.21 will bring more consolidations but further rally will remain in favor as long as 104.91 support holds. However, break of 104.91 should now indicate completion of the rise from 102.58 and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.84) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.15).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.51; (P) 107.73; (R1) 107.93; More...

USD/JPY continues to trade in tight range above 106.91 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 106.91 will extend the decline from 111.71 to 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 109.38 will suggest that fall from 111.71 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.51; (P) 109.83; (R1) 110.24; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 104.69 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will now confirm completion of the rebound and bring retest of 104.69 low. However, sustained trading above 110.77 will dampen our bearish view and target a test on 114.54 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.55) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.82; (P) 110.98; (R1) 111.27; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Fall from 111.82 might extend lower. But after all, price actions from 113.17 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.82 will resume the rebound from 109.76 and target a test on 113.17 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.08; (P) 114.26; (R1) 114.51; More…

With 113.20 minor support intact, further rise is still in favor in USD/JPY. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.18 next. On the downside, break of 113.20 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back first.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.38; (P) 109.53; (R1) 109.65; More..

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. With 109.33 minor support intact, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside. Current rise from 104.45 is in progress for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. Break will target long term channel resistance at 111.78 next. On the downside, below 109.33 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. In this case, downside of retreat should be contained above 108.27 support to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.94; (P) 151.17; (R1) 151.56; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 151.69 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another falling leg could be seen but further rally is expected as long as 148.79 support holds. Firm break of 151.69 high will resume larger up trend. However, decisive break of 148.79 will indicate rejection by 151.93 key resistance, and bring deeper fall through 147.28 support.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.79; (P) 115.05; (R1) 115.30; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside and outlook is unchanged. Fall from 116.33 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 116.34. Deeper decline would be seen to 114.14 support. On the upside, however, break of 115.86 will turn bias back to the upside for 116.34 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.31) holds.

USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 extended to as low as 151.93 last week, but recovered after breaching 151.98 resistance turned support briefly. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 155.36 support turned resistance holds. Decisive break of 151.89 resistance turned support will argue that large scale correction is underway to 148.66 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 155.36 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, considering the depth and momentum of the current decline, 161.94 should be a medium term top already. Fall from there is seen as correcting the whole rise from 127.20 (2023 low) at least. Break of 151.89 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 161.94 at 148.66. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 157.17) holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, as long as 140.25 support holds, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 172.08.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.48; (P) 135.98; (R1) 136.69; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Rejection by this fibonacci level, followed by break of 134.04 support, will argue that rebound from 127.20 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside. However, sustained trading above 136.64 will indicate that fall from 151.93 has completed, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 142.48.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Sustained break there will indicate that price actions from 151.93 medium term are merely a corrective pattern. Such development will maintain long term bullishness. Rejection by 136.64 will, on the downside, extend the fall from 151.93 to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.59; (P) 151.76; (R1) 151.96; More…

USD/JPY’s surges to as high as 151.51 so far, and the break of 151.93 key resistance indicates long term up trend resumption. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. On the downside, below 151.56 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 150.80 support holds.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.16; (P) 106.27; (R1) 106.41; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case that pull back fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest 104.18 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.11; (P) 154.43; (R1) 155.01; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 55 4H EMA (now at 154.81) argues that pull back from 160.20 has completed at 151.86 already. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 157.98 resistance. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 150.87 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.87; (P) 109.05; (R1) 109.38; More..

USD/JPY’s rise from 102.58 resumes by breaking through 109.35 today, and hits as high as 109.81 so far. Intraday bias is back on long term channel resistance at 110.00. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications and target 111.71 resistance next. On the downside, break of 108.40 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.00). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.66; (P) 135.33; (R1) 135.90; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation below 136.99 and intraday bias stays neutral first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD, a deeper correction could be imminent. On the downside, break of 134.25 support will confirm short term topping at 136.99. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 131.34 support resistance turned support. Nevertheless, firm break of 136.99 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.43; (P) 105.76; (R1) 106.24; More...

USD/JPY continues to trade in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 107.05 resistance holds. Break of 105.10 will bring retest of 104.18 support first. Further break will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.63; (P) 113.82; (R1) 114.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. As noted before, considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, it’s probably already in correction to whole up trend from 102.58. Break of 113.47 will target 112.52 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 115.05 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 110.91) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.61; (P) 114.87; (R1) 115.01; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as it recovered after dipping to 114.49. On the downside, break of 114.49 will resume the decline from 116.33, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 116.34. Further break of 114.14 and will target 113.46 support and below. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.61) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.11; (P) 132.14; (R1) 132.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Recovery from 129.62 should have completed at 133.74. Deeper fall is expected to 129.62 first. Break there will resume whole fall from 137.90 to retest 127.20 low. On the upside, however, above 133.74 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for another rise. Overall, eventual downside break out is expected as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.