Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.51; (P) 110.75; (R1) 111.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and further rise is expected as long as 109.70 support holds. Larger up trend from 102.58 might be resuming. Above 111.10 will target 111.71 key resistance next. Firm break there will carry larger implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64 next. On the downside, however, break of 109.70 support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

USD/JPY rebounded strongly after initial dive to 147.14 last week. But upside is capped by 55 4H EMA (now at 149.59). Initial bias remains neutral this week first, with risk on the downside. Break of 148.57 minor support will turn bias to the downside the resume the fall from 151.89 through 147.14 support. However sustained break of 55 4H EMA will revive near term bullishness, and target a retest on 151.89/93 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69. This will remain the favored case as long as 127.20 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.94; (P) 108.11; (R1) 108.40; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 108.37 will extend the rebound from 106.78 with another rise, possibly through 108.99 resistance. On the downside, break of 107.21 will resume the fall from 108.99 to 106.78 low. Decisive break there will resume whole decline from 112.40.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.16; (P) 139.57; (R1) 140.05; More…

USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 140.90 and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. With 138.22 minor support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 136.35).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

USD/JPY’s sharp fall last week suggests short term topping at 109.72. But downside is contained above 108.27 support so far. Thus, near term outlook stays bullish for further rise. On the upside, above 109.20 minor resistance will bring retest of 109.72 first. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.98; (P) 134.20; (R1) 136.24; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 135.58 could extend. But further rally is expected as long as 131.34 support holds. On the upside, break of 135.58 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

USD/JPY’s break of 109.28 resistance last week indicates resumption of whole rise from 104.45. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 109.31 structural resistance will add to the case of medium term reversal. Next near term target is 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. On the downside, below 108.64 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 107.88 support holds.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.33; (P) 109.50; (R1) 109.82; More…

USD/JPY rises to as high as 110.29 so far and the strong break of 110.02 resistance confirms rally resumption. Intraday bias is back on the upside as rise from 104.62 should now target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next. Firm break there will target medium term trend line resistance at 112.43. On the downside, below 109.14 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 108.30) holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.41; (P) 129.51; (R1) 130.67; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in established rate above 127.20 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 134.64).

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

USD/JPY’s strong rebound last week suggests that corrective fall from 150.87 has completed at 146.47, after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 150.87/89 key resistance zone. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 148.02 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price action from 151.89 (2023 high) are correction to up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). The question is whether this correction has completed at 140.25, or extending with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. Sustained break of above mentioned 146.81 fibonacci level will favor the latter case. But even so, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 139.54

In the long term picture, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds (2015 high), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to continue through 151.93 (2022 high) at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.55; (P) 110.82; (R1) 111.02; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed after very brief consolidation and reaches as high as 111.37 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for trend line resistance at 112.33. Firm break there will target 114.73 resistance next. On the downside, below 110.60 minor support will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But strong support should be seen from 109.14/110.02 support zone to bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 108.65) holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.85; (P) 130.60; (R1) 131.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again as it retreated quickly after hitting 131.34. Further is expected as long as 128.61 support holds. Above 131.34 will target 261.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 133.26. However, firm break of 128.61 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.61; (P) 105.92; (R1) 106.50; More…

Breaching of 106.37 minor resistance suggest temporary bottoming at 105.24. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again for consolidation. But after all, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 107.67 resistance holds. Larger decline from 118.65 is expected to continue. Below 105.24 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. Firm break there will pave the way to 98.97 key support level and below. However, break of 107.67 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 109.05) first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.00 extended to 106.10 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 106.10 will 106.94 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the whole decline from 111.71. On the downside, break of 104.94 support will revive near term bearishness and target a test on 104.00 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.94; (P) 106.03; (R1) 106.12; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for some consolidations below 106.11 temporary top. Further rise is expected with 104.94 support intact. Current development argues that down trend from 111.71 has completed on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Above 106.11 will target 106.94 resistance for confirmation. However, on the downside, break of 104.94 will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of this low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.99; (P) 105.53; (R1) 105.82; More…

USD/JPY dives to as low as 104.63 so far as decline accelerates. Firm break of 105.24 support confirms resumption of decline from 114.73. Such fall is part of the whole pattern from 118.65. Intraday bias now stays on the downside for 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 106.63 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 2016 high is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 127.20 resumed last week and reached 135.09. But subsequent retreat indicates that a temporary top was formed. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 135.09 will resume the rise to 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Strong resistance could be seen there to complete the corrective rise. On the downside, break of 132.89 will bring deeper fall to 129.79 support.

In the bigger picture, prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

In the long term picture, 151.93 looks increasingly likely a major top. But it’s too early to call for long term bearish reversal at this point. Rebound from around 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 will keep the case open for price action from 151.93 to be just a corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.33; (P) 133.10; (R1) 134.37; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral with focus on 133.74 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rebound form 129.62 and target 137.90 resistance again. However, on the downside, below 130.62 will resume the fall from 137.90 through 129.62 to retest 127.20 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.52; (P) 109.79; (R1) 109.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

USD/JPY edged higher to 109.28 last week but failed to break through 109.31 key resistance. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term top should be formed. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 106.48 support first. Break will confirm completion of whole rebound from 104.45 and target retest of this low. However, decisive break of 109.31 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and target 112.40 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.