USD/CHF retreated to 0.9088 last week but quickly lost downside momentum. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further decline is mildly in favor. On the downside, below 0.9088 will target a test on 0.8982 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, break of 0.9207 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. On resumption, next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. Nevertheless, strong break of 0.9304 resistance will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn focus back to 0.9901 key resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into along term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9442; (P) 0.9469; (R1) 0.9493; More…

USD/CHF is staying in range of 0.9423/9568 and intraday bias remains neutral first. As noted, rebound from 0.9186 might not be finished yet. But considering divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.9626 key fibonacci level. Break of 0.9432 support will indicate near term reversal and completion of rebound from 0.9186. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.9186 low. However, sustained break of 0.9626 will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9313; (P) 0.9342; (R1) 0.9397; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with today’s retreat. Consolidations should be relatively brief with 0.9256 minor support intact. Break of 0.9374 will resume recent rise to 61.8% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8756 at 0.9464. On the downside, break of 0.9256 will bring deeper pull back. But overall, further rally is expected as long as 0.9044 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that fall from 1.0237 has completed at 0.8756, on bullish condition in daily and weekly MACD. Current rally from 0.8756 should target 0.9901 resistance first. Break there will target 1.0237/0342 resistance zone in the medium term. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.9044 resistance turned support holds.

USD/CHF’s strong rebound last week suggests that corrective fall from 0.9901 has completed at 0.9502, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9181 to 0.9901 at 0.9456. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 0.9901 high first. On the downside, break of 0.9648 minor support will extend the correction from 0.9901 with another fall. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 0.9456.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). It could have completed at 0.9181 after hitting 0.9186 key support (2018 low). Further rise could be seen to retest 1.0237 high. After all, medium term range trading will likely continue between 0.9181/1.0237 for some time.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8991; (P) 0.9014; (R1) 0.9048; More….

USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.8886 resumed by breaking through 0.9047 temporary top. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.9086 resistance. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 0.9342 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9007 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by the deeper than expected pull back from 0.9243. Yet there was no follow through selling after hitting 0.8886. On the upside, break of 0.9243 resistance will revive the case of medium term bottoming at 0.8851, and turn outlook bullish. However, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8551 to 0.9243 at 0.8815 will argue that larger decline from 1.0146 is ready to resume through 0.8551 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9544; (P) 0.9577; (R1) 0.9593; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as it’s still bounded in range of 0.9521/9648. On the downside, firm break of 0.9521 minor support will indicate rejection by 0.9626 key fibonacci resistance. Intraday bias would then be turned back to the downside for 0.9432 support first. Break there will also confirm completion of rebound from 0.9186 and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, sustained break of 0.9626 will be another evidence of larger reversal. In this case, further rise would be seen to next fibonacci level at 0.9900.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9951 last week was rejected by 55 day EMA and reversed since then. Rebound from 0.9695 should have completed already. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for retesting 0.9695 low first. On the upside, above 0.9951 will extend the rebound from 0.9695. In that case, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.0237 to 0.9695 at 1.0030.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) should have completed at 1.0237 already. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9587 and below. For now, USD/CHF is seen as in long term range pattern between 0.9186 and 1.0342. Hence, we’d pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587. However, sustained break of 1.0014 will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.0237 high.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9078; (P) 0.9101; (R1) 0.9114; More…

USD/CHF is still staying in consolidation from 0.9050 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.9241 resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 0.9050 will resume larger down trend. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 0.9241 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for 0.9376 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). Current development suggests that such pattern is still extending. Sustain trading below 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.9081 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 0.8639. On the upside, break of 0.9376 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9997; (P) 1.0021; (R1) 1.0040; More…

No change in USD/CHF’s outlook. It continues to lose upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 0.9982 minor support intact, further rally is still expected. Sustained trading above 1.0037 will pave the way to 1.0342 key resistance next. On the downside, though, below 0.9982 minor support will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. And, in that case, deeper retreat could be seen, possibly to trend line support (now at 0.9735) before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 0.9648 resistance turned support holds, even in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9256; (P) 0.9277; (R1) 0.9316; More….

USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.9193 extends higher today but stays below 0.9380 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.9380 will indicate that fall from 0.9459 has completed with three wave down to 0.9193. Such development will revive near term bullishness and turn bias back to the upside for 0.9459 and then 0.9471 resistance. On the downside, however, below 0.9236 will turn bias to the downside for 0.9149 structural support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds. Larger down trend could still extend through 0.8756 (2021 low). However, firm break of 0.9471 will argue that whole down trend form 1.0342 (2016 high), has completed with waves down to 0.8756. A medium term up trend should be set up to target 1.0237/0342 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9573; (P) 0.9627; (R1) 0.9658; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 0.9797 should target 0.9502 and below. But price actions from 0.9901 are possibly forming a consolidation pattern. Strong support might be seen from 61.8% retracement of 0.9181 to 0.9901 at 0.9456 to rebound. On the upside, above 0.9687 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9797 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.9456 will pave the way to retest 0.9181 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). It could have completed at 0.9181 after hitting 0.9186 key support (2018 low). Further rise could be seen to retest 1.0237 high. After all, medium term range trading will likely continue between 0.9181/1.0237 for some time.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9157; (P) 0.9179; (R1) 0.9201; More…

USD/CHF’s break of 0.9082 suggests that corrective rebound from 0.8998 has completed well earlier than expected at 0.9200. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.8998 support. Break will resume larger down trend. Nevertheless, break of 0.9200 will resume the rebound towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8998 at 0.9343.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low), which is still extending. Sustained trading below 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.9081 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 0.8639. On the upside, break of 0.9376 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming.

USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9111 continued last week and edged lower to 0.8629 last week. Nevertheless, with subsequent recovery, initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. Break of 0.8629 will resume the decline to retest 0.8551 key support level. However, break of 0.8819 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8551 are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the decline from 1.0146 (2022 high). Fall from 0.9243 is seen as the second leg for now. Strong support should be seen 0.8551 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 0.9111 resistance will argue that the third leg has started already, and target 0.9243.

In the long term picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed. With 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359 intact, outlook is neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9544; (P) 0.9565; (R1) 0.9597; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral, and outlook remains unchanged. Fall from 1.0048 is still seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.0063. Strong support should be seen around 0.9543 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9731 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0063 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.9543 will bring deeper fall back to 0.9459 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Next target is 1.0237/0342 resistance zone. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9471 resistance turned support holds. However, sustained break of 0.9471 will extend long term range trading with another falling leg.

USD/CHF rebounded to 0.9213 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. As long as 0.9084 support holds, choppy rise form 0.8925 could still extend higher. Above 0.9213 will target 0.9293 and then 0.9372. However, break of 0.9101 will resume the fall from 0.9372 instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We’d pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9097; (P) 0.9146; (R1) 0.9177; More…

USD/CHF is still extending the corrective pattern from 0.9058 and intraday bias stays neutral. Another rise cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 0.9474 fibonacci level. On the downside, firm break of 0.9058 will resume larger down trend from 1.1046.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) should still be in progress with 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474 intact. Prior rejection by 55 week EMA was a medium term bearish sign. Break of 0.9058 will resume such decline towards 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal.

USD/CHF’s break of 0.8998 low last week confirms resumption of medium term down trend. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9304 to 0.9030 from 0.9207 at 0.8933. On the upside, break of 0.9101 minor resistance mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. On resumption, next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. Nevertheless, strong break of 0.9304 resistance should confirm medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into along term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9752; (P) 0.9768; (R1) 0.9796; More…

USD/CHF’s recovery from 0.9695 extends higher today but stays below 0.9854 support turned resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral and outlook remains bearish for another decline. On the downside, break of 0.9695 will resume the fall from 1.0237 to 0.9587 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 0.9854 will indicate short term bottoming and target 1.0014 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development confirms that up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) has completed at 1.0237 already. With 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9836 taken out, deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.9587 and below. We’d pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9647; (P) 0.9662; (R1) 0.9689; More…..

USD/CHF’s decline resumes after brief consolidation and hits as low as 0.9621 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall from 1.0067 should target 0.9523 fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 0.9678 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9757 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.

USD/CHF’s rally continued last week and reached as high as 0.9758. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Rise from 0.9186 should target 0.9900 fibonacci level next. On the downside, below 0.9702 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9576 support holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. The break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626 suggests that it’s likely completed at 0.9186 already. Further rally would be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. Sustained break there would pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance next. This will now be the preferred case as long as 0.9576 support holds.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.