USD/CHF’s correction from 0.9471 short term top extended lower last week. With 0.9350 minor resistance intact, deeper fall could be seen. But we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.8756 to 0.9471 at 0.9198 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9350 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.9471 high. However, sustained break of 0.9198 will bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 0.9029.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0237 should have completed at 0.8756, on bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Current rally from 0.8756 should target 0.9901 resistance first. Break there will target 1.0237/0342 resistance zone in the medium term. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 0.9192) will dampen revive medium term bearishness for down trend extension through 0.8756 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9024; (P) 0.9052; (R1) 0.9077; More….

USD/CHF is staying in consolidation from 0.9093 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.9093 will resume the rise from 0.9756 to 100% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9044 from 0.8869 at 0.9127 next. However, break of 0.8869 will argue that the corrective rise from 0.8756 has completed, and turn outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. Next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. In any case, break of 0.9295 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.9478 extended higher last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.9868 resistance. Firm break of 0.9868 resistance will argue that larger up trend is ready to resume through 1.0063. Overall, the corrective pattern from 1.0063 high could still extend. Below 0.9619 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9478 and below.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.0063 will target 100% projection of 0.9149 to 1.0063 from 0.9369 at 1.0283, and then 1.0342 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9369 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, outlook is mixed with deeper than expected fall from 1.0063, but some support is seen from 55 week EMA (now at 0.9460). Overall, though, USD/CHF is seen as in sideway pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). Range trading should continue until further development.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8377; (P) 0.8463; (R1) 0.8517; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 0.9243 should target 138.2% projection of 0.9111 to 0.8665 from 0.8819 at 0.8203 next. On the upside, above 0.8438 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8665 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, break of 0.8551 support indicates resumption of whole decline from 1.0146 (2022 high). Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8551 from 0.9243 at 0.8257. Sustained break there could prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.7648. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8819 resistance holds.

USD/CHF stayed in consolidation above 0.8858 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week, and further decline is expected with 0.9070 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.8858 will resume the down trend from 1.0146 to 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767, which is close to 0.8756 long term support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, break of 0.9070 support turned resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is in progress for 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the long term picture, long term sideway pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high) is expected to continue between 0.8756/1.0342. However, sustained break of 0.8756 will open up deeper fall back towards 0.7065 (2011 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9425; (P) 0.9440; (R1) 0.9460; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside and breach of 0.9459 resistance suggests resumption of whole rise form 0.9149. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9471 from 0.9149 at 0.9591. On the downside, below 0.9408 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds. Larger down trend could still extend through 0.8756 (2021 low). However, firm break of 0.9471 will argue that whole down trend form 1.0342 (2016 high), has completed with three waves down to 0.8756. A medium term up trend should be set up to target 1.0237/0342 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9310; (P) 0.9330; (R1) 0.9369; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the upside for 0.9372 resistance. Choppy rise from 0.8925 might be ready to resume. Break will target 0.9371. However, on the downside, break of 0.9289 will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds. Larger down trend could still extend through 0.8756 (2021 low). However, firm break of 0.9471 will argue that the trend has already reversed and rebound the rally from 0.8756 with another impulsive move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9542; (P) 0.9591; (R1) 0.9625; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 0.9647 minor resistance will argue that consolidation pattern from 0.9901 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.9784 resistance first. On the downside, break of 0.9541 will bring another fall, but downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.9181 to 0.9901 at 0.9456 to rebound.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). It could have completed at 0.9181 after hitting 0.9186 key support (2018 low). Break of 0.9901 will extend the rebound form 0.9181 through 1.0023 resistance. After all, medium term range trading will likely continue between 0.9181/1.0237 for some more time.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9714; (P) 0.9757; (R1) 0.9793; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral with focus on 0.9712 minor support. Break there will extend the consolidation pattern from 0.9901 with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 0.9592 support first. In this case, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.9181 to 0.9901 at 0.9456 to rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9502 will target a test on 0.9901 high.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). It could have completed at 0.9181 after hitting 0.9186 key support (2018 low). Break of 0.9901 will extend the rebound form 0.9181 through 1.0023 resistance. After all, medium term range trading will likely continue between 0.9181/1.0237 for some more time.

USD/CHF dived to 0.8825 last week but recovered strongly since then. Initial bias remains neutral for consolidations above 0.8825. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 0.8992 resistance holds. Break of 0.8825 will resume the fall from 0.9223 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8672.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom are seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Rejection by 0.9243 resistance affirms this case, and maintains medium term bearishness. While more range trading could be seen between 0.8332/0.9243 first, downside break out is mildly in favor at a later stage.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 (2016 high) will start the third leg as a medium term rally. But there will be no sign of long term reversal until firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9727; (P) 0.9743; (R1) 0.9765; More…

No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.9082 resistance. Break will target a test on 0.9901 resistance. On the downside, below 0.9681 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Overall, consolidation from 0.9901 is still in progress and could extend. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.9181 to 0.9901 at 0.9456 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). It could have completed at 0.9181 after hitting 0.9186 key support (2018 low). Break of 0.9901 will extend the rebound form 0.9181 through 1.0023 resistance. After all, medium term range trading will likely continue between 0.9181/1.0237 for some more time.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8947; (P) 0.8972; (R1) 0.9004; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for the moment. Rebound from 0.8818 short term bottom is expected to continue as long as 0.8918 minor support holds. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.9039) should confirm that current rally is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.0146. Further rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8818 at 0.9325. On the downside, though, break of 0.8918 will bring retest of 0.8818 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.

USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.9186 resumed last week by taking out 0.9490 resistance. The head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 0.9254, h: 0.9186, rs: 0.9337) suggests near term reversal. Initial bias remain son the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.9186 to 0.9490 from 0.9337 at 0.9641 first. On the downside, break of 0.9337 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will be cautiously bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

In the long term picture, at this point, the long term decline from 1.0342 is still in favor to extend lower to 0.8698 key support. But sustained break of above mentioned 0.9626 will turn focus back to 1.0037/0342 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9274; (P) 0.9297; (R1) 0.9335; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Current rally from 0.8756 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8756 at 0.9464. On the downside, break of 0.9135 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But further rally is expected as long as 0.9044 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). Firm break of 0.9295 resistance, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.9227), will suggest that the pattern has completed. In this case, further rise could be seen back to 1.0237/0342 resistance zone in the medium term. On the other hand, rejection by 0.9295 will retain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.8756.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9919; (P) 0.9940; (R1) 0.9976; More…

Outlook in USD/CHF remains unchanged as consolidation from 0.9854 is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.0008 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.9854 will extend the decline from 1.0237 to 0.9716 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9712).

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF’s break of long term trend line support is the first indication of medium term reversal. Focus is now back on 0.9879 support. Sustained break should confirm that medium term up trend from 0.9186 has completed at 1.0237 already. Further fall should be seen to 0.9716 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9712) next. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 0.9587.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9101; (P) 0.9172; (R1) 0.9215; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Firm break of 0.9084/0.9101 support zone will argue that choppy rise from 0.8925 has completed. Fall from 0.9471 might be ready to resuming. Further decline would be seen back to 0.8925 support first. On the upside, above 0.9147 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We’d pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9006; (P) 0.9055; (R1) 0.9081; More…

USD/CHF’s strong break of 0.9005 confirms resumption of whole down trend from 1.0146. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767, which is close to 0.8756 long term support. On the upside, break of 0.9119 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9439 resistance holds, and fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is still in progress. Prior rejection by 55 week EMA was a medium term bearish sign. Sustained of 0.9058 will resume such decline towards 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9921; (P) 0.9943; (R1) 0.9982; More…

USD/CHF rises to as high as 0.9994 so far today. The breach of 0.9991 resistance, with solid upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, suggests an upside breakout. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 1.0056 high next. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 0.9186 for 1.0342 key resistance level. On the downside, however, below 0.9946 will dampen the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral again. In that case, the corrective pattern from 1.0056 could extend with another falling leg through 0.9856 support before completion.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 is seen as a leg inside the long term range pattern. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. Above 1.0056 will target 1.0342 (2016 high). In that case, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8820; (P) 0.8848; (R1) 0.8874; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with today’s retreat. But further rally is expected with 0.8758 support intact. Break of 0.8874 will resume the rise from 0.8551 to 0.9146 cluster resistance next.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.8551 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the downtrend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rally would be seen to 0.9146 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8551 at 0.9160). Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Nevertheless, medium term outlook is neutral at best as long as 0.8551 holds, until further developments.

USD/CHF stayed in right range above 0.9789 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Fall from 1.0128 is seen as a correction. Thus, in case of another decline, downside should be contained by 0.9765/8 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9765, 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0128 at 0.9768) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9963 resistance will suggest that such correction has completed and turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.0128 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.9765/8 will bring deeper fall back to 0.9541 support next.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.0128 was slightly deeper than expected, the structure suggests it’s a corrective move. As long as 0.9765/8 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9765, 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0128 at 0.9768) holds, we’d expect up trend from 0.9541 and 0.9186 to resume later through 1.0128. However firm break of 0.9765/8 will argue that the trend has reversed. Further break of 0.9541 support will confirm this bearish scenario and bring deeper fall back to 0.9186 low.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.