USDCHF Outlook

USD/CHF rebounded further to 0.7816 last week but lost momentum since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Another rise might be seen but upside should be capped by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7896) to complete the corrective bounce. On the downside, below 0.7713 minor support will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 0.7382 projection level next. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will suggest near term reversal and target 0.8039 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8166) holds.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7753; (P) 0.7771; (R1) 0.7799; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.7816 will resume the rebound from 0.7603 short term bottom to 55 D EMA (now at 0.7896). But strong resistance should be seen there to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7713 minor support will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 0.7382 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and resuming. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8166) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7753; (P) 0.7771; (R1) 0.7799; More….

No change in USD/CHF's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, above 0.7816 will resume the rebound from 0.7603 short term bottom to 55 D EMA (now at 0.7896). But strong resistance should be seen there to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7713 minor support will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 0.7382 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and resuming. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8166) holds.