USD/CHF rebounded strongly last week but couldn’t sustain above 0.9165 resistance so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 0.9165 will argue that corrective pattern from 0.8998 has started the third leg. Further rise should be seen to 0.9304 resistance. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8998 at 0.9343. On the downside, break of 0.9030 will bring retest of 0.8998 low instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. On resumption, next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. Nevertheless, strong break of 0.9304 resistance will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn focus back to 0.9901 key resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into along term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9544; (P) 0.9577; (R1) 0.9593; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as it’s staying in range of 0.9521/9648. On the downside, break of 0.9521 minor support will indicate rejection by 0.9626 key fibonacci resistance. Intraday bias would then be turned back to the downside for 0.9432 support first. Break there will also confirm completion of rebound from 0.9186 and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, sustained break of 0.9626 will be another evidence of larger reversal. In this case, further rise would be seen to next fibonacci level at 0.9900.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

USD/CHF dipped to 0.9784 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week and outlook is unchanged. Corrective pattern from 0.9901 might still extend further. Break of 0.9665 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.9588 support and possibly below. But overall, downside contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.9181 to 0.9901 at 0.9456 to rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9802 will target a test on 0.9901 high.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). It could have completed at 0.9181 after hitting 0.9186 key support (2018 low). Break of 0.9901 will extend the rebound form 0.9181 through 1.0023 resistance. After all, medium term range trading will likely continue between 0.9181/1.0237 for some more time.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

USD/CHF’s rebound form 0.8998 resumed last week and reached as high as 0.9296. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for resistance zone of 0.9376 and 38.2% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8998 at 0.9343. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9556. On the downside, break of 0.9215 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. On resumption, next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. Nevertheless, strong break of 0.9376 support turned resistance will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn focus back to 0.9901 key resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into along term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9874; (P) 0.9892; (R1) 0.9924; More…

USD/CHF rebounds further today but it’s still staying in range below 0.9954. Intraday bias stays neutral. Consolidation from 0.9954 might still extend with another decline. But in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 0.9954 at 0.9796 to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 0.9954 will resume the rise from 0.9541 and target 1.0067 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9147; (P) 0.9165; (R1) 0.9187; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 0.9237 will resume the rise from 0.8925 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9471 to 0.8925 at 0.9262. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.9471 resistance. On the downside, however, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.9143) will bring retest of 0.8925 low instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term bearishness is neutralized by strong break of 55 week EMA. Focus is back on 0.9471 resistance. Sustained break there will indicate completion of whole decline from 1.0342 (2016 high). Medium term outlook will be turned bullish for a test on 1.0342 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9486; (P) 0.9509; (R1) 0.9532; More…

At this point, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside for further rebound. The head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 0.9254, h: 0.9186, rs: 0.9337) suggests near term reversal. Rise from 0.9186 should target 100% projection of 0.9186 to 0.9490 from 0.9337 at 0.9641 first. On the downside, break of 0.9337 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will be cautiously bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

USD/CHF’s pull back from 0.9111 extended to 0.8952 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 0.8952 will target a test on 0.8886 support first. Break there will resume whole decline from 0.9243 to 0.8815 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.9111 will resume the rebound from 0.8886 instead, and target 0.9243 resistance.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by the deeper than expected pull back from 0.9243. Yet there was no follow through selling after hitting 0.8886. On the upside, break of 0.9243 resistance will revive the case of medium term bottoming at 0.8851, and turn outlook bullish. However, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8551 to 0.9243 at 0.8815 will argue that larger decline from 1.0146 is ready to resume through 0.8551 low.

In the long term picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed. With 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359 intact, outlook is neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9064; (P) 0.9092; (R1) 0.9113; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation form 0.9009 is still extending. With 0.9197 resistance intact, further decline is still in favor. On the downside, break of 0.9009 will resume larger down trend. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9197 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 9282).

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). Current development suggests that such pattern is still extending. Sustain trading below 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.9081 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 0.8639. On the upside, break of 0.9376 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9658; (P) 0.9678; (R1) 0.9706; More…

A temporary top is formed at 0.9710 as USD/CHF retreats. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rise is still expected as long as 0.9576 support holds. Above 0.9710 will extend recent rally to 0.9900 fibonacci level next. However, break of 0.9576 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 0.9432 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. The break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626 suggests that it’s likely completed at 0.9186 already. Further rally would be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. Sustained break there would pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8881; (P) 0.8918; (R1) 0.8944; More….

USD/CHF’s decline is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Current down trend should target 61.8% projection of 0.9901 to 0.8998 from 0.9304 at 0.8746 next. On the upside, break of 0.8967 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. On resumption, next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. Nevertheless, strong break of 0.9304 resistance will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn focus back to 0.9901 key resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9938; (P) 0.9949; (R1) 0.9967; More….

USD/CHF is losing some upside momentum as seen with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.9963 resistance should confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.0128 to 0.9716. Further rise should then be seen to retest 1.0128. And for now, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 0.9856 minor support holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.9186 has possibly completed with three waves up to 1.0128 already. Decline from 1.0128 could either be correcting this move, or reversing the trend. As long as 0.9541 support holds, we’d slightly favor the former scenario, and expect another rise through 1.0128 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.9541 will confirm trend reversal and bring deeper fall back to 0.9186 low.

USD/CHF dropped to as low as 0.9854 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidation first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.0008 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.9854 will extend the decline from 1.0237 to 0.9716 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9712).

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF’s break of long term trend line support is the first indication of medium term reversal. Focus is now back on 0.9879 support. Sustained break should confirm that medium term up trend from 0.9186 has completed at 1.0237 already. Further fall should be seen to 0.9716 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9712) next. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 0.9587.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

USD/CHF dived to as low as 0.9376 last week as fall form 0.9901 extended. But subsequent rebound suggests short term bottoming. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 0.9651). Sustained break there would pave the way to 0.9901 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.9376 will resume the fall from 0.9901 instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). It could have completed at 0.9181 after hitting 0.9186 key support (2018 low). Break of 0.9901 will extend the rebound form 0.9181 through 1.0023 resistance. After all, medium term range trading will likely continue between 0.9181/1.0237 for some more time.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9147; (P) 0.9187; (R1) 0.9220; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Current decline should now target next fibonacci projection level at 0.9081. On the upside, break of 0.9230 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9362 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). Current development suggests that such pattern is still extending. Based on current down side momentum, break of 0.9181 will target 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.9081. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 0.8639. On the upside, break of 0.9362 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8960; (P) 0.9010; (R1) 0.9044; More…

USD/CHF’s retreat from 0.9061 extends lower today but stays above 0.8918 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 0.8818 short term bottom is expected to continue as long as 0.8918 minor support holds. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.9039) should confirm that current rally is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.0146. Further rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8818 at 0.9325. On the downside, though, break of 0.8918 will bring retest of 0.8818 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9802; (P) 0.9838; (R1) 0.9876; More…

USD/CHF’s fall from 1.0146 accelerates lower today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9369 to 1.0146 at 0.9666. Sustained break there will raise the chance of larger reversal. On the upside, above 0.9897 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.0146 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Fall from 1.0146 support is currently seen as a correction to rise from 0.9369 only. That is, another rise could still be seen through 1.0146. However, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9369 to 1.0146 at 0.9666 will raise the chance of larger reversal, and target 55 week EMA (now at 0.9578).

USD/CHF rebounded to 0.9467 last week but reversed from there and dropped sharply. The development argues that larger fall form 0.9901 is not finished. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Break of 0.9382 will target a test on 0.9181 low. Meanwhile, break of 0.9467 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 0.9532 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). It could have completed at 0.9181 after hitting 0.9186 key support (2018 low). Break of 0.9901 will extend the rebound from 0.9181 through 1.0023 resistance. After all, medium term range trading will likely continue between 0.9181/1.0237 for some more time.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9875; (P) 0.9898; (R1) 0.9927; More…

USD/CHF’s rally resumes today and reaches as high as 0.9950 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.0037 resistance next. Firm break there will pave the way to key resistance level at 1.0342. On the downside, below 0.9869 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidation, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 0.9648 resistance turned support holds, even in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9237; (P) 0.9254; (R1) 0.9273; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with current retreat, and with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Further rally remains in favor as long as 0.9141 support holds. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9471 to 0.8925 at 0.9262 will pave the way to retest 0.9471 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is currently neutral with focus on 0.9471 resistance. Sustained break there will indicate completion of whole decline from 1.0342 (2016 high). Medium term outlook will be turned bullish for a test on 1.0342 high. But, rejection by 0.9471 again will revive bearishness for another fall through 0.8756 low.